Redban
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,978
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« on: March 20, 2020, 08:33:51 AM » |
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OK ... so OP is asking which safe states will trend towards the other party without getting competitive. That should eliminate some of the answers listed above, such as Arizona, Georgia, and Minnesota. That states are marginally "safe" right now, and they will be competitive in future elections.
I think California, Hawaii, and Illinois. These states were just moderately Democrat before Obama, who probably generated a favorite son effect. In addition, I think Trump was a bad fit in these states; he underperformed Romney and McCain badly in Cook County and Los Angeles county. After a little more time, I believe these states will be just 10-12% Democrat (instead of 20-30%).
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