What States that are currently Safe do you expect...
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  What States that are currently Safe do you expect...
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Author Topic: What States that are currently Safe do you expect...  (Read 2528 times)
PoliticalShelter
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« on: March 19, 2020, 03:30:02 PM »

What States that are currently Safe do you expect to trend signficantly to other side, but continue to be Safe regardless, at least for the foreseeable future?
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iceman
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« Reply #1 on: March 19, 2020, 04:19:03 PM »
« Edited: March 19, 2020, 04:26:42 PM by iceman »

Minnesota, I really don't think the rural areas can outvote the Twin Cities and it's suburbs. It's always been trending R but it was 2006 I think when it last voted for GOP for a statewide high-profile race?


Rhode Island - Providence county which makes up half of the total population and it's lopsidedly DEM lean will prevent it from voting GOP.


Idaho - Even though Ada county is growing exponentially, the other counties which vote around 70%-80% GOP would make it unlikely to vote DEM soon.


Indiana - The suburbs around Indianapolis are trending DEM very quickly, but the overwhelmingly GOP lean of the rural counties would always tip it on favor of the GOP. 2008 was a fluke.
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I Will Not Be Wrong
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« Reply #2 on: March 19, 2020, 04:22:52 PM »

Vermont, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Kansas, Idaho, Utah, and Alaska.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #3 on: March 19, 2020, 04:34:22 PM »

Texas, AZ, GA. Purple heart The sunbelt stack.
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Redban
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« Reply #4 on: March 20, 2020, 08:33:51 AM »

OK ... so OP is asking which safe states will trend towards the other party without getting competitive. That should eliminate some of the answers listed above, such as Arizona, Georgia, and Minnesota. That states are marginally "safe" right now, and they will be competitive in future elections.

I think California, Hawaii, and Illinois. These states were just moderately Democrat before Obama, who probably generated a favorite son effect. In addition, I think Trump was a bad fit in these states; he underperformed Romney and McCain badly in Cook County and Los Angeles county. After a little more time, I believe these states will be just 10-12% Democrat (instead of 20-30%).
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #5 on: March 20, 2020, 05:52:46 PM »

IA goes from D to R, OH and AZ moves from R to D.
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Nightcore Nationalist
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« Reply #6 on: March 21, 2020, 03:46:59 AM »

An underrated state that will swing right by double digits by 2024 is Vermont.  It's demographics are identical to Maine and NH, and doesn't have NH's wealthy areas.

Kansas and Alaska are the best fit for GOP states that are safe, but will trend left quite a bit in the next 2 cycles.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #7 on: March 21, 2020, 09:21:14 AM »

Vermont, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Kansas, Idaho, Utah, and Alaska.

These.

And I'd add Nebraska.  Omaha and Lincoln are moving leftward, and 2016 was the first time in decades the state voted to the left of the Dakotas.
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538Electoral
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« Reply #8 on: March 24, 2020, 08:04:53 PM »

IL.
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clever but short
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« Reply #9 on: March 25, 2020, 11:59:29 AM »

Vermont, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Kansas, Idaho, Utah, and Alaska.

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Sol
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« Reply #10 on: March 27, 2020, 10:47:43 AM »

Kansas seems like the obvious answer provided that current coalitions continue. Southwest Kansas and Johnson County are likelier to get more and more D, although for obviously different reasons.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #11 on: March 27, 2020, 09:40:19 PM »

KS is becoming the new IA, Barb Bollier shall win and make KS a Dem state
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #12 on: March 28, 2020, 03:04:20 AM »

Safe D: Rhode Island
Safe R: Idaho
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