MT-PPP: Bullock and Daines tied
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  MT-PPP: Bullock and Daines tied
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Author Topic: MT-PPP: Bullock and Daines tied  (Read 1036 times)
Zaybay
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« on: March 19, 2020, 10:30:31 AM »


Bullock(D): 47%
Daines(R): 47%
Not sure: 6%

https://www.endcitizensunited.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Montana-Poll.pdf
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Skye
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« Reply #1 on: March 19, 2020, 10:34:08 AM »

This poll has Trump leading a generic Dem 52-44. So maybe, a bit rosy for the Democrats.
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OneJ
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« Reply #2 on: March 19, 2020, 10:38:13 AM »

They also polled the MT-AL race. Williams and Rosendale are tied at 45.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #3 on: March 19, 2020, 10:40:13 AM »

It's a PPP poll, which is usually Dem friendly. But a good starter. We need to see more polls to make a better assessment. Lean R for now.
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Pollster
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« Reply #4 on: March 19, 2020, 10:40:34 AM »

Montana almost always swings against the incumbent President, so I find these results generally believable.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #5 on: March 19, 2020, 10:46:47 AM »

Tilt R. This is PPP, plus Bullock is probably better-known than Daines. Daines probably wins by 3-5.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #6 on: March 19, 2020, 11:31:52 AM »

This poll has Trump leading a generic Dem 52-44. So maybe, a bit rosy for the Democrats.

Leading generic dem by 8 likes means winning the state by around 12 so that seems accurate
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(Temporary) Florida Man Xing
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« Reply #7 on: March 19, 2020, 11:53:11 AM »

A bit Democratic friendly, but Daines clearly canít rest easy.
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The Daily Beagle
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« Reply #8 on: March 19, 2020, 12:17:10 PM »

Montana does send Democrats to congress.
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Mr. Kanye West
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« Reply #9 on: March 19, 2020, 12:19:32 PM »

Lean D
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Heir of Camelot
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« Reply #10 on: March 19, 2020, 12:29:52 PM »
« Edited: March 19, 2020, 12:38:00 PM by Heir of Camelot »

This is where I would put it too.

Trump is not going to win MT by 20 points again. More like 8-12 depending on if the economy rebounds.
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We Live in Black and White
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« Reply #11 on: March 19, 2020, 12:32:36 PM »

This seems plausible in the current environment. If things get worse for Trump, expect the anti-incumbent snapback Montana usually displays to be a lot more dramatic.
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The Daily Beagle
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« Reply #12 on: March 19, 2020, 01:20:29 PM »

This seems plausible in the current environment. If things get worse for Trump, expect the anti-incumbent snapback Montana usually displays to be a lot more dramatic.

Like I said, Democrats get lucky in Montana all the time. Whether or not they will continue to do so remains to be seen. In Wyoming, the local Republican Party is really losing its independence to the national one.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #13 on: March 19, 2020, 07:23:57 PM »

If they had polled Gianforte vs. Cooney (which they probably didnít because Williams/Fox arenít out of the game yet), it likely would have been another tie or very close to a tie. I expect Rosendale to run 1-3 points ahead of Daines/Gianforte when all is said and done, but there wonít be a ton of split-ticket voting in those three contests at least. A plausible best-case scenario for Republicans would be a repeat of 2000, with Burns = Daines, Martz = Gianforte, Rehberg = Rosendale, although 2000 was also an entirely different era (the Bozeman area was still Safe R, Republicans were competitive in Missoula County, the Republican nominee for president won MT by 25 points, etc., all of which would be unthinkable today). Republicans have little room for error here, especially if Trump "only" wins the state by 9-13 points instead of 20 points.

What complicates matters is that they didnít poll a Libertarian candidate, even though a Republican county commissioner is running for Senate as a Libertarian (the party essentially replaced their initial candidate because of allegations that he was a Republican plant who would drop out after the filing deadline). Given the closeness of this race this could be the difference between a Bullock +<1 win and a narrow Daines win.

Anyway, if Biden wins and Democrats take the Senate because of two Democratic seats in Montana, I hope federal money floods in under a Biden administration because he couldnít have passed jack sh*t without Bullock and Tester.
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Mr. Kanye West
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« Reply #14 on: March 23, 2020, 06:33:45 PM »

Yeah, this is a susptitous poll that didnt bother polling the Gov race. We should get a poll that has all three races polled
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