An Effective Consensus

[Elcaspar]

Glad that this TL is back and in as good form as ever.

[KaiserDave]

Results of the 1986 Midterms

(Senate Map Pictured)


United States House of Representatives
Republicans: 223 (-26)
Democrats: 211 (+26)


United States Senate
Democrats: 54 (+2)
Republicans: 46 (-2)

Flips: South Dakota (R to D), North Dakota (R to D), Washington (R to D), Missouri (D to R)

Yet another election with a Republican House and a Democratic Senate, it seems like it's been that way for an eternity of politics. Speaker Anderson gets another two years as Speaker (he has confirmed he will retire in 1988 from the House). In the Senate Robert Byrd has led the Democrats up two on the Republicans, with a more comfortable majority. Exit polls show that Kemp remains popular, with an approval rating of 58%, but his policies are more polarizing. His proposed welfare reform remains highly unpopular in his own party, his tax policy as well. However moderate voters and independents appreciated the tax reform, and many across the political spectrum appreciate his tough on communism stance.

However, the Republicans are weaker across the board, and some analysts point to a belief held by many Kemp voters in 1984 that Kemp is attempting to change things "too fast."

[KaiserDave]

Wikimedia Commons

The Kemp Administration

The second half of President's Kemp first term was characterized by battle. Battle abroad, battle with congress, and battle with the religious right. At home, Congressional investigators were now investigating the Kemp Administration's relationship with the Fuerzas Contrarrevolucionarias Organizadas (FCO) in Chile, and Democrats in Congress rejected a Kemp plan to double down on Romney era civil rights enforcement, with an extension to homosexuals, in laws that would overturn anti-sodomy laws. This item specifically would prove to be of the highest importance in coming days. Abroad, the Kemp Administration remained tough on the USSR, but when reform minded leader Mikhail Gorbachev took over, things began to soften. Then the religious right. They were infuriated by his attempt to overturn anti-sodomy laws (even though Kemp still opposed restrictions on homosexuals, such as teaching), and even though he had appointed William Rehnquist to the Supreme Court, they became fiercely opposed to him.

The fight with the religious right would intensify as a novel virus struck the nation, with an emphasis on the homosexual population. The HIV/AIDS pandemic had begun. A virus with unclear origins, that spread through sexual contact and blood transfusions was battering people hard, and it seemed incurable. President Kemp declared in his 1987 State of the Union that the country was "at war with AIDS at home and abroad." He began to usher funding towards treatment research, while the religious right fumed about the "homosexual disease." They saw Kemp's attempts to legalize homosexuality as both counter productive and morally wrong, and when Kemp said his law was "an attempt to make fighting these disease easier" they began organizing further campaigns against him. The Committee to Protect Families (CPF) was organized to oppose Kemp, and begun broadcasting national advertisement. Kemp's civil rights proposals ultimately never passed. The feeling that Kemp, in the economy and social life was "trying to change too much" persisted.

Meanwhile the economy begun to improve, entrepreneurship boomed, corporate profits exploded, and jobs numbers increased. However the deficit skyrocketed, and some progressive Republicans fretted about growing wealth inequality. Robert Kennedy, still a New York Senator said, "come the 21st century we will regret this decision, and the damage it will do to America." However in the meanwhile the economy continued to grow.

Come 1988 Kemp's Administration was in hot water as the arms sales to Chilean rebels and Nicaraguan anti communist militias were revealed. Televised congressional hearings hit the administration hard. Ultimately, one Rear Admiral John Poindexter took the fall for the arrangement, but the administration remained hurt. Many Americans trust in government was undermined. Ultimately both rebel groups would be unsuccessful, and the Marxist-Leninist regime in Chile consolidated a dictatorship with strong Soviet support. Meanwhile in Iran, a military regime rose from the chaos with some Islamist influences. Ultimately, instead of the clerical regime some had hoped for, a military regime did with some Islamist influences.

As the election approached Kemp and Mathias prepared his argument for reelection. And Democrats prepared for an intense nomination battle. Al Gore had already announced his candidacy and he seemed like the favorite, but there was also preacher Pat Robertson, Joe Biden of Delaware, and Georgia conservative Newt Gingrich.

[President Biden Democrat]

YES YES YES YES YES! This is back!

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

The second half of President's Kemp first term

If Kemp wins re-elex, then forget what I said about Biden. We need to embarrass the Conservadems as much as possible, and the easiest way to do that is a Robertson/Gingrich ticket.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I think the GOP might be in till 2000 if this is a repeat of the 1920s with Conservative Republicans dominating and Democrats just only able to win most of the solid south(like the 1920s even that isnt every single state)

[KaiserDave]

Support is what keeps the timeline going! Thank you so much!

[KaiserDave]

Wikimedia Commons

Jack

Jack and his family waved to the cheering crowd at the airport, and Jack saluted the honor guard, and then turned as the plane completing its taxiing. The plane stopped and the steps dropped down, as a silence passed down on the Washington National Airport. Then Mikhail Gorbachev popped out of the plane and waved to the again clapping and cheering crowd as the band struck up Katyusha.

Gorbachev greeted Kemp and his family at the bottom of the steps, and they begun to walk down the red carpet inspecting the US Marine Guard. Jack would be lying if he said he wasn't nervous. His meeting with Gorbachev was a major moment, in the geopolitics of his day and in the history to be recorded in the future. It had to go right. They stopped together as the US Navy Band began playing the State Anthem of the USSR. After the Soviet anthem played they two leaders drove off together to the car waiting for them. Jack's family went into another car so the leaders of the world's two superpowers could chat. Jack despised communism, but if he could get along with Gorbachev, perhaps he could bring about communism's end in his own way. Cracks were already showing in the Union, if Kemp could only pry them open to reform, freedom, and markets.

"Well then Mr. General-Secretary, welcome to the United States!"

[KaiserDave]

We've had five alternate Presidents
Nixon
Wallace
Romney
Glenn
Kemp


What's your ranking? What about compared to the previous Presidents in RL and the TL like FDR, Truman, Eisenhower, and Hoover?

[OSR stands with Israel]

We've had five alternate Presidents
Nixon
Wallace
Romney
Glenn
Kemp


What's your ranking? What about compared to the previous Presidents in RL and the TL like FDR, Truman, Eisenhower, and Hoover?

Kemp
Nixon
Glenn
Romney







Wallace

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Romney, Glenn, Nixon, Kemp, Wallace. Thus far, Bayh is by far the best President we never had.

[We Live in Black and White]

Romney


Glenn
Kemp


Nixon



Wallace


Listed given what I know, OTL, of what kind of person Nixon was. Like Peebs said, Bayh was the best president we never had.

[KaiserDave]

Wikimedia Commons

The 1988 Campaign I

Al Gore of Tennessee did not have much problems getting himself into the frontrunner's slot for the Democratic primary. The party machines were behind him, he was the champion of the New Democrats, Glenn liked him, and everyone scarred by Helm's landslide defeat preferred him to the alternative. However he was not without opposition. Pat Robertson led the religious right's opposition to President Kemp, Newt Gingrich looked to lead the Helms and Buchanan coalition back to prominence, and there was a field of a variety of liberals and moderates. Robertson and Gingrich criticized Gore for being insufficiently conservative, while Gore held the line for a continuation of Glenn's policies, if perhaps with a more rightward twist on some social and economic issues. The issue of AIDS and homosexuality came up in the campaign, with Robertsons saying that "God has put a curse on the sodomites, there is nothing we can or should do on that count." Gore took a less violent position, saying that "I do not condone homosexuality, it is a dangerous and bad influence, but we should still research the causes and treatment of this illness." Gore's youthful persona and repeated debate victories won him strong support, and despite Robertson performing better than expected in Iowa, and Gingrich sweeping most of the Old Confederacy, Gore would triumph with ease and capture the nomination.

(Green-Gore, Yellow-Gingrich, Blue-Robertson)

In the Republican primary, Jesse Jackson was openly contemplating a run for President, to challenge Jack Kemp from the left. Ultimately however, after meeting with the President and making a public consideration of the President's efforts in black communities he decided not to run. President Kemp faced no major challenge to renomination and won with ease.

Major campaign issues emerging as the general election campaign began included the issue of AIDS and homosexuality, the farm crisis that had emerged in the campaign season as farm states were devastated by a fall in prices, a dip in oil prices, the budget and supply side economics, and relations with the Soviet Union. The Republican National Convention in Houston was a weird mix of liberal speakers praising a hybrid but predominantly conservative administration, but Charles Mathias's speech in particular was viewed favorably. The Democratic Convention in St. Louis was a far different tone than the 1984 convention. It started with Senator Gore picking second term Pennsylvania Governor Robert Casey as his Vice President. Instead of paleoconservative talking points and racial dogwhistles, it was a more statesmanlike conservatism, and an emphasis on free market economics and social sense. The campaign was soon in full swing.

[😥]

We've had five alternate Presidents
Nixon
Wallace
Romney
Glenn
Kemp


What's your ranking? What about compared to the previous Presidents in RL and the TL like FDR, Truman, Eisenhower, and Hoover?

Romney
Glenn
Nixon
Kemp
Wallace

And great to see Al Gore as a Democratic nominee and hopefully future President! And I'm even more happy with Casey as Vice President than Gore as President.

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

sh**t, there goes my embarrass the right scheme. Now we're sending Gore off like a lamb to the slaughter.

[Stm85]

We've had five alternate Presidents
Nixon
Wallace
Romney
Glenn
Kemp


What's your ranking? What about compared to the previous Presidents in RL and the TL like FDR, Truman, Eisenhower, and Hoover?

Kemp
Nixon
Glenn
Romney







Wallace

Pretty much how I’d rank them too, although I’d say Kemp is miles ahead of anyone else in this TL.

[KaiserDave]

We've had five alternate Presidents
Nixon
Wallace
Romney
Glenn
Kemp


What's your ranking? What about compared to the previous Presidents in RL and the TL like FDR, Truman, Eisenhower, and Hoover?

Kemp
Nixon
Glenn
Romney







Wallace

Pretty much how I’d rank them too, although I’d say Kemp is miles ahead of anyone else in this TL.

Have you been pleased with President Kemp?

[KaiserDave]

Wikimedia Commons

The 1988 Campaign II

The Gore campaign was aggressive quickly. Attack ads hit the air, on the Chilean Scandal, on the proposed repeal of the Anti-Sodomy Laws, on the farm crisis and oil prices, and attacking supply side economics. Gore and Casey's campaign circulated around "Fighting for Small-town America" and contrasted "President's Kemp desperate attempts to change this country" and their focus on good jobs, family values, life, and economic growth based on balanced budgets and new technology jobs. They continued to attack Kemp as "trying to change the fundamentals of our families, our economy, and our country for contrived faulty reasons." Gore's platform was largely centre right, a combination of New Democrat economic views influenced by Third Way ideology and socially conservative views on family and life, but very much in support of civil rights for the disabled and African Americans. It also included a surprising commitment to conservationism. His campaign didn't spend much time in the South with the exception of Florida, and focused on the midwest and plains states angry about farm products prices. Gore wasn't exactly charismatic, especially not compared to Kemp, but he was only 40 and draw a certain crowd with his youth. Baby boomers were definitely a fan, Generation X too.

Jack Kemp kept his argument simple, the economy was stronger than it was four years ago, every economic indicator was stronger than in 1984 (with the exception of the deficit of course but they didn't mention that), taxes were lower, and the administration was taking active steps to stop the HIV/AIDS pandemic (which was now far more prevalent in a larger population), and was bringing a decisive end to global communism. He tried to frame his civil rights legislation around a need to combat the AIDS pandemic, and as an issue of personal liberty which he continued to emphasize. Unfortunately the general voting population wasn't that receptive to "individual liberty" talking points. His response to the Chilean Scandal was simply to continue to blame others in the administration, but it wasn't so effective. Nevertheless he continued to win the economic argument.

As the campaign approached its end Gore allied with the religious right's "pro-family" organizations to more aggressively attack Gore. Kemp, who had a strong lead of 9 points at the end of the RNC, now saw his lead narrow down to 4. When the presidential debates occurred Gore proved to be the superior debater, showing just exactly how he had grounded Robertson the lunatic and Gingrich the opportunist into the dust. At the Vice Presidential debate Mathias got the best of Casey. Casey continued to repeat the phrase "a strong America with strong families and good jobs." With Mathias pounced on, declaring that "we have strong jobs right now, President Kemp has achieved an economic boom in this country while Governor Casey repeats rehearsed talking points." As the election approached, the economy remained strong, but Gore continued to gain on the President. On the first of November a poll was released from Gallup showing a close race.


President Jack Kemp: 48%
Senator Al Gore: 47%

[KaiserDave]

Cast your ballots!

[We Live in Black and White]

Hold my nose and vote for Kemp, because his deal is still preferable to the Democratic Christian Right.

(I am eagerly looking forward to John Barrasso remaining a liberal Republican in this timeline, by the by.)

[KaiserDave]

Hold my nose and vote for Kemp, because his deal is still preferable to the Democratic Christian Right.

(I am eagerly looking forward to John Barrasso remaining a liberal Republican in this timeline, by the by.)

I should note that Gore on the moderate wing of the Democratic Party and is by no means a conservative ideologue

Just think “raging moderate” Gore from the 80s

[😥]

Enthusiastically vote for Al Gore/Bob Casey

[S019]

Gore is fine, Casey is bad, but Kemp is also bad, voting Gore since the VP doesn't really matter

[Kuumo]

I would rank the alternate Presidents:

Romney

Glenn

Nixon
Kemp




Wallace


I’d have a hard time deciding who to vote for in this election. Both Kemp and Gore have about the same proportions of positives and negatives.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I think you all know who I will support