Share your early 2020 House predictions

[jake_arlington]

My apologies if such a thread already exists, but here's mine:

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I agree with this, but I'd make PA-10 a tossup and FL-26 Lean D. And NJ-11 is objectively Safe D... not Lean.

[Pericles]

My current prediction. Assumes a nationwide House PV of around D+5-6.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

[Lisa's voting Biden]

A no tossup map:
https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=1b33

Seat Changes:
D to R
MI-03 (IND to R)
MN-07
NM-02
OK-05
SC-01

R to D
GA-07
NC-02
NC-06
NJ-02
TX-22
TX-23

[Meatball Ron]

A no tossup map:
https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=1b33

Seat Changes:
D to R
MI-03 (IND to R)
MN-07
NM-02
OK-05
SC-01

R to D
GA-07
NC-02
NC-06
NJ-02
TX-22
TX-23

I basically agree with this though I am more optimistic about our chances in SC-01 and maybe less optimistic about NJ-02...tough to forecast that race given party-switching dynamics but a little hard to imagine that electorate booting out two separate GOP representatives two terms in a row.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Shrunken margins, Dems arent gonna net gain seats as they hoped.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

A no tossup map:
https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=1b33

Seat Changes:
D to R
MI-03 (IND to R)
MN-07
NM-02
OK-05
SC-01

R to D
GA-07
NC-02
NC-06
NJ-02
TX-22
TX-23

Why would TX-22 (an exurban Cruz seat) flip but not TX-24 (an inner suburban Beto seat)? I'd switch them tbh, but other than that seems realistic

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Sadly, I don't see a path to winning the house for the GOP, but they will probably make gains, the only seat Dems will probably flip is TX-23. Republicans have a lot more on the table OK, UT, NY, NJ, but it won't be enough to get the majority back.

[Pericles]

Sadly, I don't see a path to winning the house for the GOP, but they will probably make gains, the only seat Dems will probably flip is TX-23. Republicans have a lot more on the table OK, UT, NY, NJ, but it won't be enough to get the majority back.

Democrats have two automatic gains in NC as well.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Sadly, I don't see a path to winning the house for the GOP, but they will probably make gains, the only seat Dems will probably flip is TX-23. Republicans have a lot more on the table OK, UT, NY, NJ, but it won't be enough to get the majority back.

Democrats have two automatic gains in NC as well.

Correct, due to the redistricitng, sorry I forgot that.