St Patrick's Day (Mar 17) Election Results Thread

[ProudModerate2]

Use this thread for (live) discussion of Election Results, for the St Patrick's Day primaries (March 17).



Some links:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/election-results/march-democratic-primaries-live-results/

https://us.cnn.com/election/2020/primaries-and-caucuses

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/17/us/elections/results-primary-elections-florida-illinois-arizona.html
(I believe NYT has a register/pay wall)

538's live blog: https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/primary-election-arizona-florida-illinois/




Mods, can you please pin this thread. Thank you.

[n1240]

Posted this in rescheduled contests as well.

https://twitter.com/NYTnickc/status/1239627149415526405

[wbrocks67]

Posted this in rescheduled contests as well.

https://twitter.com/NYTnickc/status/1239627149415526405

This tweet is misleading. He *recommended* it. No confirmation that it's actually happening yet.

[Oryxslayer]

Even though Bernie may not drop out (I suspect he will) we should treat these contests as the last significant ones for a while since everyone is pushing their contests back. For all purposes, it may as well be the technical end to primary thanks to the virus.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Even though Bernie may not drop out (I suspect he will) we should treat these contests as the last significant ones for a while since everyone is pushing their contests back. For all purposes, it may as well be the technical end to primary thanks to the virus.

Wyoming, Alaska, and Hawaii will probably go on. The first has already become essentially an all-mail primary and the other two appear ready to do the same.

[Badger]

Posted this in rescheduled contests as well.

https://twitter.com/NYTnickc/status/1239627149415526405

This tweet is misleading. He *recommended* it. No confirmation that it's actually happening yet.

But that uncertainty is even worse. I'd be totally fine if the primary vote were pushed off to June 2nd, even though it would be thoroughly anticlimactic at that point. The problem is polls open in just over 12 hours and I, like literally millions of other Ohio voters, have no idea at this point if, how, or where we can vote tomorrow.

I've been pretty good with dewines handling of the outbreak thus far. He's been the type of leader that Trump has completely and utterly failed at. But I'm going to say I hope he had a extremely strong urging from his medical professionals to try  delaying the election at literally the 11th and a half hour.

If the delay in voting to June doesn't occur, this last minute announcement could emaciate turnout.

[Oryxslayer]

Even though Bernie may not drop out (I suspect he will) we should treat these contests as the last significant ones for a while since everyone is pushing their contests back. For all purposes, it may as well be the technical end to primary thanks to the virus.

Wyoming, Alaska, and Hawaii will probably go on. The first has already become essentially an all-mail primary and the other two appear ready to do the same.

Do you really need me to tell you that those three lack the prominence, and occur at awful times thanks to time zones, to cut through the corona news for 90% of Americans?

[n1240]

https://twitter.com/ZachMontellaro/status/1239691548041916423

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I read that there is no time for an appeal. So it appears the Ohio primary will still happen tomorrow... as it should.

[Grassroots]

Illinois, Arizona, Ohio, and Florida.

Ohio tried to move theirs but the judge rejected it (based).

Discussion thread.

[Bidenworth2020]

I am curious what deflated turnout does to the results. Obviously Biden wins regardless, but is it blowout margins?

[Cassandra]

I don't care if deflated turnout helps Bernie, these primaries should not have been held. I'm worried about all the poll workers and other elderly people who will likely contract COVID-19 tomorrow.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

DeWine is defying the judges orders and moving the election to June 2nd

[n1240]

Not sure if Florida early vote stats have been discussed much on the forum, but current state of the early vote:

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

632453 VBM and 438326 Early vote ballots have been received on the Dem side, for a total of about 1.07 million Democratic ballots cast thus far.

Compared to 2016, 520035 VBM and 369172 Early votes were cast on the Dem side, for a total of 890k Democratic ballots cast before election day. 1.7 million votes were counted in total in the 2016 Democratic primary.

Early/VBM vote count has increased in most counties, with exception to a few small, rural counties. Among Democratic voters, St. Johns has the highest relative increase from 2016 with 1.73x more ballots cast before election day than 2016. Among the larger counties in the state, Broward county has 1.10x more ballots cast, Hillsborough has 1.27x more ballots cast, Orange has 1.19x more ballots cast, Pinellas has about the same as 2016, Palm Beach has 1.52x more ballots cast, and Miami-Dade has 1.06x more ballots cast.

[ProudModerate2]

DeWine is defying the judges orders and moving the election to June 2nd

I'm not seeing any news on this.
Can you please post a link. Thank you.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

DeWine is defying the judges orders and moving the election to June 2nd

I'm not seeing any news on this.
Can you please post a link. Thank you.

https://twitter.com/taniel/status/1239730120832811010?s=21

It was an error turns out the media misreported AGAIN today on what Ohio is doing

[Green Line]

DeWine is defying the judges orders and moving the election to June 2nd

I'm not seeing any news on this.
Can you please post a link. Thank you.

https://twitter.com/taniel/status/1239730120832811010?s=21

It was an error turns out the media misreported AGAIN today on what Ohio is doing

https://twitter.com/GovMikeDeWine/status/1239720297529475075

"Logistically, under these extraordinary circumstances, it simply isn’t possible to hold an election tomorrow that will be considered legitimate by Ohioans."

This statement is clearly meant to create doubt or confusion regarding the status of the primary.  The judge has ruled that the election is on.  Him releasing a statement after this ruling stating that the primary cannot be held is disgusting.  DeWine's actions today have been the only thing that makes the election seem illegitimate.  Nobody in Illinois, Arizone, or Florida is saying that their elections tomorrow will not be legit.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1239737249505456128

[Mr. Morden]

If anyone has any info on whether we'll be getting any exit polls tomorrow, please post.  Under normal circumstances, we would get them, but with coronavirus mayhem it seems possible that we won't.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

If anyone has any info on whether we'll be getting any exit polls tomorrow, please post.  Under normal circumstances, we would get them, but with coronavirus mayhem it seems possible that we won't.

No exit polls tomorrow

[Mr. Morden]

If anyone has any info on whether we'll be getting any exit polls tomorrow, please post.  Under normal circumstances, we would get them, but with coronavirus mayhem it seems possible that we won't.

No exit polls tomorrow

Source?

[cinyc]

Even though Bernie may not drop out (I suspect he will) we should treat these contests as the last significant ones for a while since everyone is pushing their contests back. For all purposes, it may as well be the technical end to primary thanks to the virus.

Wyoming, Alaska, and Hawaii will probably go on. The first has already become essentially an all-mail primary and the other two appear ready to do the same.

It would be very difficult for Alaska to hold an all-mail primary, which is why the state hasn't done it yet, even though the City of Anchorage has. Mail service is very unreliable in the Bush. Some people probably don't even have P.O. Boxes. The U.S. Census Bureau is conducting the census in rural Alaska the old-fashioned way - with enumerators on the ground.

[Roblox]

The primaries should all be delayed. We can't have groups of 50+ people waiting in line for hours close together, especially people that are likely to be disproportionally elderly based on what's been happening in he primary so far. This is a public health emergency.

[cinyc]

The primaries should all be delayed. We can't have groups of 50+ people waiting in line for hours close together, especially people that are likely to be disproportionally elderly based on what's been happening in he primary so far. This is a public health emergency.

Groups of 50+ people don't need to be waiting in line for hours close together if election officials competently run the election. Social distancing spacing can be maintained.

This decision is best left to the states.

[Roblox]

The primaries should all be delayed. We can't have groups of 50+ people waiting in line for hours close together, especially people that are likely to be disproportionally elderly based on what's been happening in he primary so far. This is a public health emergency.

Groups of 50+ people don't need to be waiting in line for hours close together if election officials competently run the election. Social distancing spacing can be maintained.

This decision is best left to the states.

That's…A pretty huge if. Especially with reports of poll volunteers quitting.