AZ - Monmouth: Biden +3, Sanders -1

[Xing]

Let’s not act as though AZ is a safe bet/sure to “save the Democrats.” A three-point lead isn’t exactly terrific, and it’s identical to the lead in the most recent polls of MI/WI, so it’s just as likely that Trump could narrowly win AZ while losing those states (whoops, think I just triggered half of Atlas.)

[Xing]

Let’s not act as though AZ is a safe bet/sure to “save the Democrats.” A three-point lead isn’t exactly terrific, and it’s identical to the lead in the most recent polls of MI/WI, so it’s just as likely that Trump could narrowly win AZ while losing those states (whoops, think I just triggered half of Atlas.)

Remember, though, that polling consistently underestimates Dems in the Southwest and overestimates Dems in the Midwest. Certainly AZ could stay GOP while MI/Wi/PA all go Dem, but I think right now, AZ will vote not only to the left of all three of them, but also to the left of NH and ME. If I had to guess based on polling, I think from left to right, the competitive states in 2016 will go something like this.
1. Virginia
2. Colorado
3. New Mexico
4. Nevada
5. Minnesota
6. Arizona
7. New Hampshire
8. Pennsylvania
9. Michigan
10. NE-02
11. Maine
12. North Carolina
13. Wisconsin
14. Florida
15. Georgia
16. Texas
17. Ohio
18. Iowa

I really doubt NC will vote left of WI (or FL, for that matter), and while polls in 2018 specifically underestimated Democrats in AZ (by a few points), that wasn’t the case in 2016, or 2014 for that matter. It’s not like NV where polls have consistently underestimated Democrats for over a decade, and often by comical margins.