AZ - Monmouth: Biden +3, Sanders -1
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  AZ - Monmouth: Biden +3, Sanders -1
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Author Topic: AZ - Monmouth: Biden +3, Sanders -1  (Read 2480 times)
pppolitics
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« on: March 16, 2020, 05:34:03 AM »
« edited: March 16, 2020, 05:50:21 AM by pppolitics »

Biden: 46%
Trump: 43%

Sanders: 43%
Trump: 44%

Quote
The Monmouth University Poll was conducted by telephone from March 11 to 14, 2020 with 847 Arizona registered voters. The question results in this release based on all registered voters have a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points. Results based on 373 voters who are likely to vote in the Democratic presidential primary on March 17, 2020 have a margin of error of +/- 5.1 percentage points.  The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_AZ_031620/
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #1 on: March 16, 2020, 05:56:48 AM »

WI is the tipping point race
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #2 on: March 16, 2020, 06:13:22 AM »

I am getting this gut feeling that the Southwest is going to have to bail out asses out of this
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #3 on: March 16, 2020, 08:40:44 AM »

I am getting this gut feeling that the Southwest is going to have to bail out asses out of this

Hmmm... polling consistently underestimates Dems in the SW, so Biden is probably going to win AZ if anything like these polls continues.   However, it's hard for me to envision Biden losing only one of WI/MI/PA.  The likely scenarios are he wins them all (then AZ doesn't matter), he only wins PA (then AZ isn't enough), or he loses them all (same).  Biden would likely have to win Texas while losing a ton of Obama states to be "bailed out" by the Southwest.  It's not impossible, but it's a big lift.

It's not in the SW, but I do think Clinton+PA+AZ+GA is an underrated scenario for a minimum Biden win, using the big city shift.  He doesn't even need ME or NH in that scenario.   
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indietraveler
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« Reply #4 on: March 16, 2020, 08:52:01 AM »

AZ may save us all.
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MRS DONNA SHALALA
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« Reply #5 on: March 16, 2020, 09:28:56 AM »

Biden leading a landline-only poll is a great sign.
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Sbane
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« Reply #6 on: March 16, 2020, 09:31:10 AM »

I am getting this gut feeling that the Southwest is going to have to bail out asses out of this

Hmmm... polling consistently underestimates Dems in the SW, so Biden is probably going to win AZ if anything like these polls continues.   However, it's hard for me to envision Biden losing only one of WI/MI/PA.  The likely scenarios are he wins them all (then AZ doesn't matter), he only wins PA (then AZ isn't enough), or he loses them all (same).  Biden would likely have to win Texas while losing a ton of Obama states to be "bailed out" by the Southwest.  It's not impossible, but it's a big lift.

It's not in the SW, but I do think Clinton+PA+AZ+GA is an underrated scenario for a minimum Biden win, using the big city shift.  He doesn't even need ME or NH in that scenario.   

There is enough vote around the Detroit suburbs, Ann Arbor , Lansing, Kalamazoo and Grand Rapids to flip Michigan to Biden. The only x factor is whether Detroit, Macomb County, Flint, Saginaw and Bay City continue swinging to Trump. Wisconsin has a much bigger rural/small town and small city vote compared to either Michigan or Pennsylvania.
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Catalyst138
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« Reply #7 on: March 16, 2020, 10:14:13 AM »

I am getting this gut feeling that the Southwest is going to have to bail out asses out of this

Hmmm... polling consistently underestimates Dems in the SW, so Biden is probably going to win AZ if anything like these polls continues.   However, it's hard for me to envision Biden losing only one of WI/MI/PA.  The likely scenarios are he wins them all (then AZ doesn't matter), he only wins PA (then AZ isn't enough), or he loses them all (same).  Biden would likely have to win Texas while losing a ton of Obama states to be "bailed out" by the Southwest.  It's not impossible, but it's a big lift.

It's not in the SW, but I do think Clinton+PA+AZ+GA is an underrated scenario for a minimum Biden win, using the big city shift.  He doesn't even need ME or NH in that scenario.   

If the margins are close enough it’s completely possible Biden wins MI and PA without WI.

Let’s say PA is D+2, MI is D+1 and WI is R+0.5 like it was in 2016. This still means the 3 states are voting similar to each other but Biden barely wins two while losing one.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #8 on: March 16, 2020, 10:31:03 AM »

Tilt D. AZ may save us from defeat if WI goes for Trump.

If WI is declared for Trump on election night but PA and MI are in Biden's column, we might have to wait for AZ to be called before we have an elected prez (assuming Trump also wins NC and FL).
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #9 on: March 16, 2020, 10:39:51 AM »

Tilt D. AZ may save us from defeat if WI goes for Trump.

If WI is declared for Trump on election night but PA and MI are in Biden's column, we might have to wait for AZ to be called before we have an elected prez (assuming Trump also wins NC and FL).

WI is gonna vote to left of AZ, due to Evers having a net approval rating
AZ can split its votes for Prez and Senate, McSally lost while Ducey won. Can happen again and I expect the race will tighten with McSally and Kelly
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #10 on: March 16, 2020, 10:53:34 AM »

Tilt D. AZ may save us from defeat if WI goes for Trump.

If WI is declared for Trump on election night but PA and MI are in Biden's column, we might have to wait for AZ to be called before we have an elected prez (assuming Trump also wins NC and FL).

WI is gonna vote to left of AZ, due to Evers having a net approval rating
AZ can split its votes for Prez and Senate, McSally lost while Ducey won. Can happen again and I expect the race will tighten with McSally and Kelly

I wouldn't mix up gov approvals with elections at national level. Wolf has always had a solid approval, and PA still voted for Trump in 2016. FL would also be safe R according to this logic, since DeSantis is popular. WI may very well vote to the right of AZ this time around.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #11 on: March 16, 2020, 11:21:08 AM »

Thank god we picked Biden. Really hard to see how Sanders would have gotten to 270.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #12 on: March 16, 2020, 11:22:43 AM »

Thank god we picked Biden. Really hard to see how Sanders would have gotten to 270.

Based on being tied in Arizona?
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #13 on: March 16, 2020, 06:05:45 PM »

Arizona is looking promising, but by no means a sure thing.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #14 on: March 17, 2020, 03:23:43 PM »

Arizona is looking promising, but by no means a sure thing.

7 mnths left is a long time for Trump to recover in AZ and OH, with a stimulus package that will help him in the polls. But, of course WI isnt a sure thing for Trump
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Badger
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« Reply #15 on: March 31, 2020, 11:53:18 PM »

I am getting this gut feeling that the Southwest is going to have to bail out asses out of this

Hmmm... polling consistently underestimates Dems in the SW, so Biden is probably going to win AZ if anything like these polls continues.   However, it's hard for me to envision Biden losing only one of WI/MI/PA.  The likely scenarios are he wins them all (then AZ doesn't matter), he only wins PA (then AZ isn't enough), or he loses them all (same).  Biden would likely have to win Texas while losing a ton of Obama states to be "bailed out" by the Southwest.  It's not impossible, but it's a big lift.

It's not in the SW, but I do think Clinton+PA+AZ+GA is an underrated scenario for a minimum Biden win, using the big city shift.  He doesn't even need ME or NH in that scenario.   


Based on all the polling, Michigan seems by far the most likely to flip of the three Obama Midwestern states
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #16 on: April 06, 2020, 01:32:39 AM »

Why aren't any recent AZ polls showing up on the 2020 poll map? The most recent is from January 4th.
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Person Man
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« Reply #17 on: April 06, 2020, 08:17:33 AM »

Democrats need Arizona.
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Xing
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« Reply #18 on: April 06, 2020, 01:22:17 PM »

Let’s not act as though AZ is a safe bet/sure to “save the Democrats.” A three-point lead isn’t exactly terrific, and it’s identical to the lead in the most recent polls of MI/WI, so it’s just as likely that Trump could narrowly win AZ while losing those states (whoops, think I just triggered half of Atlas.)
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #19 on: April 06, 2020, 01:34:09 PM »

Let’s not act as though AZ is a safe bet/sure to “save the Democrats.” A three-point lead isn’t exactly terrific, and it’s identical to the lead in the most recent polls of MI/WI, so it’s just as likely that Trump could narrowly win AZ while losing those states (whoops, think I just triggered half of Atlas.)
Remember, though, that polling consistently underestimates Dems in the Southwest and overestimates Dems in the Midwest. Certainly AZ could stay GOP while MI/Wi/PA all go Dem, but I think right now, AZ will vote not only to the left of all three of them, but also to the left of NH and ME. If I had to guess based on polling, I think from left to right, the competitive states in 2016 will go something like this.
1. Virginia
2. Colorado
3. New Mexico
4. Nevada
5. Minnesota
6. Arizona
7. New Hampshire
8. Pennsylvania
9. Michigan
10. NE-02
11. Maine
12. North Carolina
13. Wisconsin
14. Florida
15. Georgia
16. Texas
17. Ohio
18. Iowa
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Xing
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« Reply #20 on: April 06, 2020, 02:53:52 PM »

Let’s not act as though AZ is a safe bet/sure to “save the Democrats.” A three-point lead isn’t exactly terrific, and it’s identical to the lead in the most recent polls of MI/WI, so it’s just as likely that Trump could narrowly win AZ while losing those states (whoops, think I just triggered half of Atlas.)
Remember, though, that polling consistently underestimates Dems in the Southwest and overestimates Dems in the Midwest. Certainly AZ could stay GOP while MI/Wi/PA all go Dem, but I think right now, AZ will vote not only to the left of all three of them, but also to the left of NH and ME. If I had to guess based on polling, I think from left to right, the competitive states in 2016 will go something like this.
1. Virginia
2. Colorado
3. New Mexico
4. Nevada
5. Minnesota
6. Arizona
7. New Hampshire
8. Pennsylvania
9. Michigan
10. NE-02
11. Maine
12. North Carolina
13. Wisconsin
14. Florida
15. Georgia
16. Texas
17. Ohio
18. Iowa


I really doubt NC will vote left of WI (or FL, for that matter), and while polls in 2018 specifically underestimated Democrats in AZ (by a few points), that wasn’t the case in 2016, or 2014 for that matter. It’s not like NV where polls have consistently underestimated Democrats for over a decade, and often by comical margins.
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Catalyst138
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« Reply #21 on: April 06, 2020, 03:22:12 PM »

For the “Sanders couldn’t get to 270” people, remember that his poor primary performance hurt his current matchup in the general. There is no enthusiasm for Sanders since he lost, so of course Biden is doing better vs Trump. If Sanders were the presumptive nominee it would be a different story. Both Biden and Sanders are electable.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #22 on: April 15, 2020, 12:26:53 PM »

New Poll: Arizona President by Monmouth University on 2020-03-14

Summary: D: 46%, R: 43%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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