AZ-Univision/ASU: Biden +8, Sanders +5

[Person Man]

Arizona was just way too Republican the way Iowa was way too Democratic. The fact that there is a heavily unionized tractor factory or antiabortion megachurch down the road will only carry you so far if no one else really has a reason to vote for you.

Then again there are places where local parties just have no credibility. Florida comes to mind. A lot of rural frost belt states came to mind until recently.

In situations like Colorado, Nevada, and Iowa, it was just one or two really stupid leaders that destroyed the local party. Leaders like Bob Beauprez, Bruce Braley, and Sharon Angle can really be wake up call for voters.

[pbrower2a]

Imagine if Trump gets Romney 12' numbers.

Trump is not a Mormon. He violates so many Mormon sensibilities that he ended up with a smaller percentage of the vote in Utah in 2016 than did Goldwater in 1964 and indeed since Dewey in 1948. This is something to consider in Arizona, which has a large Mormon minority.

Getting sub-par support from a minority group that usually votes for one's Party is an effective way in which to lose. Suppose that the Jewish vote went from 80-20 D to 65-35 D in Minnesota, Nevada, and New Hampshire. If you are a Republican you would salivate over the prospect of 20 electoral votes going your way this time.  

Trump would have had a tough time against Obama in Utah. Obama acts much more like the Mormon ideal than does Trump. One wife! (Mormons haven't done polygamy for over a century). Sure, Obama lost big to Romney in 2012, but we can all understand why.

By the way -- I would love to see Romney run as an independent or on a Third-Party ticket against Trump and Biden. Romney would win Utah outright and ensure a third color on the Atlas map for someone not a racist spliter from the Democratic Party. 1924, when Lafollette won Wisconsin was the last.

[Yellowhammer]

Latinos are apparently 50% of the sample. Crosstabs just don't matter when the poll favors democrats, though.

https://twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1238479086504329216?s=20

[Sbane]

Arizona is starting to feel like a reverse Iowa/Ohio.

More like Wisconsin.

[n1240]

Latinos are apparently 50% of the sample. Crosstabs just don't matter when the poll favors democrats, though.

https://twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1238479086504329216?s=20

Reading their methodology, this isn't wrong, but the comment is also misleading - pollsters may oversample a certain demographic to get a smaller margin of error on their estimates of how that demographic votes, and then proceed to weigh the poll to a realistic electorate composition.

You can take the crosstabs for yourself and see:
Biden receives 61% of the Latino vote, 45% of the White vote, and 73% of the Black vote
Trump receives 24% of the Latino vote, 49% of the White vote, and 16% of the Black vote

If I apply weights of 50% White, 48% Latino, and 2% Black, I get Biden 53.04 Trump 36.34, which is nowhere close to what the poll estimates overall.

However, if I apply the same weights from the 2018 exit poll of 79%, 19% Latino and 2% Black (bumped the weights up a little since I don't have crosstabs for "other") I get Biden 48.04 Trump 43.59, which is a lot closer to the topline result that the pollster has here (they must be weighing Latino vote share a bit too high, but clearly not close to 50%).

[Sbane]

If this is the case, then FL and NC are likely for Biden--with GA and TX clearly in play.

Many more people in small towns and rural areas in those states which could swing even further to Trump.The vote is much more urban in AZ and will swing more against Trump than either NC or FL. AZ will likely vote to the left of FL, though not by much.

[Sbane]

Latinos are apparently 50% of the sample. Crosstabs just don't matter when the poll favors democrats, though.

https://twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1238479086504329216?s=20

Did you check out how whites voted in the poll? AZ ain't AL buddy. The people are a little too educated there to vote for the moron in chief.

[We Live in Black and White]

AZ is probably the state most likely to flip in November, even if the usual suspects keep burying their heads in the sand about the state's trend. Lean D.

imo oh more likely to flip than az because 2012 and trends aren't real tbh imo

This response contributes literally nothing.

Terribly sorry my posts don't reach your vigorous standards. Next time I want to take the mick out of bad analysis I happen to see mentioned on this esteemed forum, I'll make sure to ask your permission first.

Look, I'm not trying to be  an a**hole about this, but adding nothing to a thread but "lmao trends people right" memery just isn't a valuable way of contributing to the ongoing discussion, at least in a thread discussing poll results.

[AGA]

It's one poll; calm down guys.

[pppolitics]

This poll has half of the poll as Hispanic, junk it, but that’s not to say that Arizona won’t vote D in November, I expect it to, but Biden’s not winning by 8, if that happens then we have a literal Democratic landslide occurring

If you look at the crosstab, Trump is still in a lot of trouble

________________________________________________________________________________

White:

Trump - 49%

Biden - 45%

Hispanic:

Trump - 24%

Biden - 61%

Black:

Trump - 16%

Biden - 73%

[AGA]

This poll has half of the poll as Hispanic, junk it, but that’s not to say that Arizona won’t vote D in November, I expect it to, but Biden’s not winning by 8, if that happens then we have a literal Democratic landslide occurring

If you look at the crosstab, Trump is still in a lot of trouble

________________________________________________________________________________

White:

Trump - 49%

Biden - 45%

Hispanic:

Trump - 24%

Biden - 61%

Black:

Trump - 16%

Biden - 73%

Huh?

[Sbane]

This poll has half of the poll as Hispanic, junk it, but that’s not to say that Arizona won’t vote D in November, I expect it to, but Biden’s not winning by 8, if that happens then we have a literal Democratic landslide occurring

If you look at the crosstab, Trump is still in a lot of trouble

________________________________________________________________________________

White:

Trump - 49%

Biden - 45%

Hispanic:

Trump - 24%

Biden - 61%

Black:

Trump - 16%

Biden - 73%

Huh?

It's a small subsample with a high MoE so I wouldn't worry about it too much.

[President Johnson]

I think this is an outlier, but Joe Biden can win the state by 2-3 points. It's important to put ressources into Arizona to compensate a possible loss in Wisconsin. The Democrats are well advised to put up a serious challenge in the Sun Belt to cement a new blue wall. Combined with strong numbers in suburbs, a new majority could be forming. Would be great if Uncle Joe is the man to do so.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There is no way for SN 2903 to spin these awful polls for Trump

[AZdude]

I love these numbers that show AZ close, but I have to tell you, I'm also absolutely terrified at the prospect of AZ deciding the race one way or another.  Why?  Because of our nightmare absentee ballot checking system.  Because the signatures on the outside of the ballot envelopes have to be verified before the ballot can be opened, and because so many are dropped off on election day or right before, counting takes FOREVER as Senator Sinema can attest.  It'll be like Florida 2000 on crack.  Add in the prospect of all the gun nuts here and...  I don't even want to think about it.

I want this state to flip and I'm going to work for it, I just want the race to be decided elsewhere.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

This poll has half of the poll as Hispanic, junk it, but that’s not to say that Arizona won’t vote D in November, I expect it to, but Biden’s not winning by 8, if that happens then we have a literal Democratic landslide occurring

If you look at the crosstab, Trump is still in a lot of trouble

________________________________________________________________________________

White:

Trump - 49%

Biden - 45%

Hispanic:

Trump - 24%

Biden - 61%

Black:

Trump - 16%

Biden - 73%

Even if Latinos are 50% of actual respondents, there’s no way they represent 50% of the weighted sample given these crosstabs.  It is possible they deliberately oversampled Latinos to get a more confident subsample and then reweighted them down in the whole sample.  This looks to me more like ~25% Latino.  In any case, Trump is toast if he only wins white voters by 4 points.

[Bidenworth2020]

This poll has half of the poll as Hispanic, junk it, but that’s not to say that Arizona won’t vote D in November, I expect it to, but Biden’s not winning by 8, if that happens then we have a literal Democratic landslide occurring

If you look at the crosstab, Trump is still in a lot of trouble

________________________________________________________________________________

White:

Trump - 49%

Biden - 45%

Hispanic:

Trump - 24%

Biden - 61%

Black:

Trump - 16%

Biden - 73%

Even if Latinos are 50% of actual respondents, there’s no way they represent 50% of the weighted sample given these crosstabs.  It is possible they deliberately oversampled Latinos to get a more confident subsample and then reweighted them down in the whole sample.  This looks to me more like ~25% Latino.  In any case, Trump is toast if he only wins white voters by 4 points.

Not to mention the fact that the black numbers seem too low for Joe/too high for Trump (though admittedly its probably a tiny sample size).

[Progressive Pessimist]

I've been bearish on Arizona, and this poll probably is too generous to Democrats, but it's potential to flip this year is undeniably promising and may very well save the country's ass if Wisconsin fails to flip before it.

[SN2903]

Junk

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

This poll has half of the poll as Hispanic, junk it, but that’s not to say that Arizona won’t vote D in November, I expect it to, but Biden’s not winning by 8, if that happens then we have a literal Democratic landslide occurring

If you look at the crosstab, Trump is still in a lot of trouble

________________________________________________________________________________

White:

Trump - 49%

Biden - 45%

Hispanic:

Trump - 24%

Biden - 61%

Black:

Trump - 16%

Biden - 73%

Even if Latinos are 50% of actual respondents, there’s no way they represent 50% of the weighted sample given these crosstabs.  It is possible they deliberately oversampled Latinos to get a more confident subsample and then reweighted them down in the whole sample.  This looks to me more like ~25% Latino.  In any case, Trump is toast if he only wins white voters by 4 points.

Not to mention the fact that the black numbers seem too low for Joe/too high for Trump (though admittedly its probably a tiny sample size).

16% of the black subsample in Arizona is probably 3 people.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is a University poll, but Kelly can win and Bullock can as well, even if Biden doesn't carry the state

[Bojack Horseman]

Arizona is starting to feel like a reverse Iowa/Ohio.

I pray to the good lord that this is what’s happening.

[Yellowhammer]

Latinos are apparently 50% of the sample. Crosstabs just don't matter when the poll favors democrats, though.

https://twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1238479086504329216?s=20

Did you check out how whites voted in the poll? AZ ain't AL buddy. The people are a little too educated there to vote for the moron in chief.

"If you are intelligent, you vote the way that I prefer. If you don't, you're a stupid rube. This only applies if you're white (not racist)!"

[Devout Centrist]

Latinos are apparently 50% of the sample. Crosstabs just don't matter when the poll favors democrats, though.

https://twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1238479086504329216?s=20

The poll isn't half latino dude:

Two New Univision News and Arizona State University surveys – the Arizona Voter Poll and the Arizona Latino Voter Poll – Can Now Be Viewed at UnivisionNoticias.com and on All Univision News Digital and Social Media Platforms

MIAMI – MARCH 13, 2020 –Two days ahead of the Univision/CNN Democratic presidential debate in Washington, D.C., Univision News in partnership with Arizona State University (ASU) publishes its latest electoral polls: the Arizona Voter Poll, a survey of registered voters in Arizona, and the Arizona Latino Voter Poll, which interviewed a robust sample of all Latino registered voters in the state of Arizona.

They polled 1036 registered voters in Arizona for the topline numbers and a further 500 Latino voters for the second survey.

[pbrower2a]

Latinos are apparently 50% of the sample. Crosstabs just don't matter when the poll favors democrats, though.

https://twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1238479086504329216?s=20

Did you check out how whites voted in the poll? AZ ain't AL buddy. The people are a little too educated there to vote for the moron in chief.

"If you are intelligent, you vote the way that I prefer. If you don't, you're a stupid rube. This only applies if you're white (not racist)!"

1. Trump is not going to win Arizona if he doesn't get at least 55% of the white vote.
2. Trump has done nothing to win over Latinos other than Cuban-Americans , and even with them it's at most getting what Republicans usually get among them.
3.  Arizona's Hispanics are largely Mexican-American, and they vote heavily D irrespective of their economic position.
4. Unlike other Republicans in the past (Eisenhower, Nixon, Ford, Reagan, either Bush, Dole, McCain, or Romney), Donald Trump really does appeal to the "stupid rube". Eisenhower voters were more like Obama voters than like Trump voters. Goldwater? He got the majority of the college-educated vote in 1964 despite losing in a blowout landslide!

We have never heard a Presidential nominee praise potential voters for their stupidity or ignorance -- until Trump. It is shameful.

5. If you dislike the poll, then wait for another. I have seen some wild state polling. Just look at Iowa. Unfortunately for you, Arizona polling seems astonishingly consistent.