AZ-Univision/ASU: Kelly +12
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  AZ-Univision/ASU: Kelly +12
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Author Topic: AZ-Univision/ASU: Kelly +12  (Read 2223 times)
Gass3268
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« on: March 13, 2020, 09:41:13 AM »

Kelly 48
McSally 36

Source
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1 on: March 13, 2020, 09:43:26 AM »

McSally has a -9 favorable rating and Kelly has a +10.
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ajc0918
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« Reply #2 on: March 13, 2020, 09:47:20 AM »

Lol stay mad martha
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PHARAOH BAKARI SELLERS
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« Reply #3 on: March 13, 2020, 09:53:19 AM »

This race is over
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andjey
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« Reply #4 on: March 13, 2020, 10:06:43 AM »

It's even Likely D at this point
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #5 on: March 13, 2020, 10:12:49 AM »

Lean D. Move it, prognosticators.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #6 on: March 13, 2020, 11:44:02 AM »

There is no fricking way this can honestly be called a tossup race anymore...come on, lean D at minimum.
 
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #7 on: March 13, 2020, 12:59:50 PM »

Poor MAGA Martha
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #8 on: March 13, 2020, 05:40:58 PM »

Republicans should concede this race and go all in on MI/MT/AL/ME/NC/GA/GA-S/KS/TX. Even if McSally somehow barely ekes out a win this November (only happening in a GOP wave), sheís going to be screwed in 2022, so Republicans will lose this seat pretty much no matter what.
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Holmes
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« Reply #9 on: March 13, 2020, 05:58:10 PM »

Republicans might want to take the L and lose this one anyway so they can come back in 2022 with a better candidate (maybe) and a potentially better environment if Biden is president.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #10 on: March 13, 2020, 08:17:42 PM »

There is no fricking way this can honestly be called a tossup race anymore...come on, lean D at minimum.
 

I'm starting to agree, at this point. Kelly has led in virtually every single poll of this race since he launched his candidacy, and McSally's numbers seem to have declined in recent weeks. Moreover, polls show Biden as competitive in Arizona against Trump, and Kelly is guaranteed to run ahead of Biden. McSally is definitely the third most likely incumbent Senator of either party to lose after Jones and Gardner, and could still lose even if Trump carries Arizona and wins reelection.
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We Live in Black and White
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« Reply #11 on: March 13, 2020, 08:25:17 PM »

Jeeeesus.
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Vern
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« Reply #12 on: March 13, 2020, 09:15:23 PM »

When did we start Believing university polls? Oh thatís right only when they show dems winning.
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PHARAOH BAKARI SELLERS
olawakandi
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« Reply #13 on: March 13, 2020, 09:27:04 PM »

There is no fricking way this can honestly be called a tossup race anymore...come on, lean D at minimum.
 

I'm starting to agree, at this point. Kelly has led in virtually every single poll of this race since he launched his candidacy, and McSally's numbers seem to have declined in recent weeks. Moreover, polls show Biden as competitive in Arizona against Trump, and Kelly is guaranteed to run ahead of Biden. McSally is definitely the third most likely incumbent Senator of either party to lose after Jones and Gardner, and could still lose even if Trump carries Arizona and wins reelection.

If Trump Carrie's AZ, he still would lose if he doesnt carry WI
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IceSpear
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« Reply #14 on: March 13, 2020, 10:57:16 PM »

Republicans should concede this race and go all in on MI/MT/AL/ME/NC/GA/GA-S/KS/TX. Even if McSally somehow barely ekes out a win this November (only happening in a GOP wave), sheís going to be screwed in 2022, so Republicans will lose this seat pretty much no matter what.

They will never concede a race with an Incumbent Bonusô, even if Gardner and/or McSally look totally DOA in October, lol. Same for Democrats with Jones.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #15 on: March 14, 2020, 04:12:27 PM »

Republicans should concede this race and go all in on MI/MT/AL/ME/NC/GA/GA-S/KS/TX. Even if McSally somehow barely ekes out a win this November (only happening in a GOP wave), sheís going to be screwed in 2022, so Republicans will lose this seat pretty much no matter what.

They will never concede a race with an Incumbent Bonusô, even if Gardner and/or McSally look totally DOA in October, lol. Same for Democrats with Jones.

LOL. Although, itís not like the parties are going to be struggling for cash, so they can afford to throw a few million to lost cause incumbents as a show of support
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Orser67
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« Reply #16 on: March 14, 2020, 04:54:02 PM »

Democrats definitely seem to be favored here, but let's not forget Feingold's polling lead in 2016 in WI.
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Xing
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« Reply #17 on: March 14, 2020, 08:33:00 PM »

While this is almost certainly exaggerated, I think Iím ready to move this to Lean D. It looks like Trump would probably have to win AZ by his 2016 margin or more to drag McSally over the finish line. Not impossible, but definitely not looking likely.

Democrats definitely seem to be favored here, but let's not forget Feingold's polling lead in 2016 in WI.

Unless Biden and the DSCC take this race completely for granted between now and November, I donít think this will be a repeat of WI-SEN.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #18 on: March 14, 2020, 08:50:18 PM »

Parties are always going to throw a few millions bucks at lost incumbents because why not? May as well buy their loyalty for guaranteed votes in the here and now rather than potential loyalty on election down the line. Itís not like a few million dollars is swinging a lot of seats anyway in this day and age.
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Harvey Updyke Jr🌹
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« Reply #19 on: March 15, 2020, 08:25:18 PM »
« Edited: March 15, 2020, 08:29:15 PM by Harvey Lee Updyke III »

edit: nvm they're two separate polls apparently.
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Harvey Updyke Jr🌹
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« Reply #20 on: March 15, 2020, 08:38:40 PM »

New Poll: Arizona Senator (Special) by Arizona State University on 2020-03-13

Summary: D: 48%, R: 36%, U: 16%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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South Dakota Democrat
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« Reply #21 on: June 28, 2020, 12:20:51 PM »

When did we start Believing university polls? Oh thatís right only when they show dems winning.

Or perhaps when every other poll shows the same thing.
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