As sprawling as the Democratic field was this time around, in the end it came down to a face off between establishment next-in-line candidate and the socialist faction's 2016 standard bearer, with the black vote swinging it in favour of the former.
I suspect that Biden will beat Trump, but let's say he doesn't;
Unless Biden's pick really catches fire, there'll be no obvious next-in-line establishment pick. As for the left...well, Sanders might surprise us by running again, but he'd be 82 if he's still alive. If not, the smart money is on AOC taking up his mantle.
No doubt the Democratic establishment will be determined to stop her from winning the nomination, a fractured field of establishment figures all appealing to be the "consensus candidate" would make that easier said then done.
I suspect AOC would largely hold on to Bernie's base of young whites without a college education and Hispanics, her Puerto Rican heritage might help her do even better with the latter. There's three big question marks that I can see:
1) Will AOC draw more female support, where Sanders tended to do somewhat worse with women all else being equal in both 2020 and 2016.
2) What the hell happens with the black vote? True enough black voters wound up lining up behind the establishment candidate in both 2016 and 2020, but there's an argument to be made that had more to do with their connection to the Obama administration. Perhaps in the absence of an Obama-adjacent candidate, they'll prove more receptive to AOC.
3) The likelihood that Trump's second term will overlap with a recession. In theory this might make Democratic primary voters more receptive to AOC's socialism.
Fair enough, although equally easily I could come up with a list of like a hundred points against her doing as well.
And what makes you so confident she could even come close to holding onto his white working-class base by the way? They have mostly abandoned him in the first place already this year, and no indications point to them going for a young winner with zero track record and a media darling, who's beloved as a talking point inside the Beltway but largely unknown outside of it. Not to mention from is a minority woman millennial from NYC or in other words, the exact archetype of an Washington insider politician they despise...no matter how unfair that image or characterization may be towards her overall honestly.
