2024 Democratic primary if Trump beats Biden
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  2024 Democratic primary if Trump beats Biden
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Jesus save us
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« on: March 11, 2020, 12:35:04 PM »

As sprawling as the Democratic field was this time around, in the end it came down to a face off between establishment next-in-line candidate and the socialist faction's 2016 standard bearer, with the black vote swinging it in favour of the former.

I suspect that Biden will beat Trump, but let's say he doesn't;

Unless Biden's pick really catches fire, there'll be no obvious next-in-line establishment pick. As for the left...well, Sanders might surprise us by running again, but he'd be 82 if he's still alive. If not, the smart money is on AOC taking up his mantle.

No doubt the Democratic establishment will be determined to stop her from winning the nomination, a fractured field of establishment figures all appealing to be the "consensus candidate" would make that easier said then done.

I suspect AOC would largely hold on to Bernie's base of young whites without a college education and Hispanics, her Puerto Rican heritage might help her do even better with the latter. There's three big question marks that I can see:

1) Will AOC draw more female support, where Sanders tended to do somewhat worse with women all else being equal in both 2020 and 2016.

2) What the hell happens with the black vote? True enough black voters wound up lining up behind the establishment candidate in both 2016 and 2020, but there's an argument to be made that had more to do with their connection to the Obama administration. Perhaps in the absence of an Obama-adjacent candidate, they'll prove more receptive to AOC.

3) The likelihood that Trump's second term will overlap with a recession. In theory this might make Democratic primary voters more receptive to AOC's socialism.
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jake_arlington
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« Reply #1 on: March 12, 2020, 10:54:33 AM »

As sprawling as the Democratic field was this time around, in the end it came down to a face off between establishment next-in-line candidate and the socialist faction's 2016 standard bearer, with the black vote swinging it in favour of the former.

I suspect that Biden will beat Trump, but let's say he doesn't;

Unless Biden's pick really catches fire, there'll be no obvious next-in-line establishment pick. As for the left...well, Sanders might surprise us by running again, but he'd be 82 if he's still alive. If not, the smart money is on AOC taking up his mantle.

No doubt the Democratic establishment will be determined to stop her from winning the nomination, a fractured field of establishment figures all appealing to be the "consensus candidate" would make that easier said then done.

I suspect AOC would largely hold on to Bernie's base of young whites without a college education and Hispanics, her Puerto Rican heritage might help her do even better with the latter. There's three big question marks that I can see:

1) Will AOC draw more female support, where Sanders tended to do somewhat worse with women all else being equal in both 2020 and 2016.

2) What the hell happens with the black vote? True enough black voters wound up lining up behind the establishment candidate in both 2016 and 2020, but there's an argument to be made that had more to do with their connection to the Obama administration. Perhaps in the absence of an Obama-adjacent candidate, they'll prove more receptive to AOC.

3) The likelihood that Trump's second term will overlap with a recession. In theory this might make Democratic primary voters more receptive to AOC's socialism.

Fair enough, although equally easily I could come up with a list of like a hundred points against her doing as well.

And what makes you so confident she could even come close to holding onto his white working-class base by the way? They have mostly abandoned him in the first place already this year, and no indications point to them going for a young winner with zero track record and a media darling, who's beloved as a talking point inside the Beltway but largely unknown outside of it. Not to mention from is a minority woman millennial from NYC or in other words, the exact archetype of an Washington insider politician they despise...no matter how unfair that image or characterization may be towards her overall honestly.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #2 on: March 18, 2020, 02:59:13 AM »

Gavin Newsome
Beto ORourke
Julian Castro
Tammy Baldwin
Russ Feingold
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Cassandra
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« Reply #3 on: March 19, 2020, 08:25:26 PM »

My interpretation of Warren's maneuvering late this cycle is that she wants to run again. If so, I am not convinced that AOC will give up a safe house seat to challenge her. I'm afraid we might not have a socialist standard bearer in 2024.
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Orser67
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« Reply #4 on: March 21, 2020, 09:59:55 AM »

Obviously a lot depends on who runs. But I could see AOC, Abrams, and Warren competing in the progressive lane. There are a bunch of people who could run in the establishment lane, but I think that Buttigieg and Klobuchar did well enough this round to maybe start off as early favorites for that lane.

Some other people I could see running include Pressley, Baldwin, Duckworth, Whitmer, Newsom, and (if he beats Markey) Joe Kennedy III. The 2020 and 2022 elections could also catapult people into national contention; e.g. Mark Kelly or MJ Hegar.
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Canis
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« Reply #5 on: March 21, 2020, 11:23:06 AM »

If Yang Runs in 2024 im definetly voting for him and hes been hinting at it
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #6 on: March 21, 2020, 03:12:09 PM »

Nobody has mentioned Kamala.
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darklordoftech
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« Reply #7 on: March 21, 2020, 07:14:17 PM »

Because she’s a Democratic Rubio.
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jake_arlington
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« Reply #8 on: March 21, 2020, 08:06:11 PM »

There hasn't been any Trump's to his Biden (or a that Bernie Sanders, whatever) though, on the GOP side either honestly of.
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Blue3
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« Reply #9 on: March 22, 2020, 12:28:59 AM »
« Edited: March 22, 2020, 12:34:43 AM by Blue3 »

AOC, Buttigieg, Newsom, Polis, Baldwin, Duckworth, Castro, Harris, Gillibrand, Booker, Warren, Yang, Klobuchar all seem plausible.

Gavin Newsome
Beto ORourke
Julian Castro
Tammy Baldwin
Russ Feingold
lol, people have been saying Feingold will run since 2007.

He's politically dead, accept it.
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Rat
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« Reply #10 on: March 22, 2020, 01:18:19 PM »

I think its pretty obvious that Cuomo will be talked about a lot after this.

I'd say I'd expect, at least:

Cuomo
Newsom
Yang
AOC
Harris
Booker
Whitmer
Booker
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rhg2052
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« Reply #11 on: March 22, 2020, 01:42:53 PM »

2020 candidates ranked by likelihood to run again if Trump wins reelection -

Warren - 75% - I see it happening. Her main barriers in 2020 were the presence of Sanders overshadowing her on the left and Biden having the electability mantle. She has a proven ability to organize and lead, and would have a lot of supporters ready to jump back in for her on day one. (And yes I am biased, as a Warren supporter.)

Buttigieg - 70% - This guy literally came out of nowhere to be a significant force in Democratic politics. He'll be back, especially in a Biden-less race. The one drawback is that he no longer has a position in government, nor is he likely to within the next term. Will he still be visible and relevant enough four years from now?

Klobuchar - 70% - Picked up a significant amount of support late in the game. Probably thinks that she can win it with this new widespread recognition and a Biden-less race. Besides, if Pete runs again she can't let him win. But did she do quite well enough this time around to justify a second try?

Booker - 60% - He's well-known and generally liked, has four years to work on his pitch, and Biden won't be in the race. He'll be back. Downside is that he didn't exactly hit gold with this run, so is it worth it?

Harris - 60% - Basically the same reasons as Booker.

Yang - 50% - He built a decent movement in this primary, and his ideas are being vindicated by the current crisis. However, I'm inclined to think he will run for a different office between now and 2024 (Mayor of NYC, perhaps?) or go back to focusing on non-profit work.

Castro - 40% - Possible, but I think he either runs for Governor in 2022 or Senate in 2024 instead and backs Warren from the beginning.

Bullock - 40% - If he wins his Senate race, he will have a pretty impressive resume. Hoping to pick up the Biden support. But also, he was inconsequential this time around.

Hickenlooper - 40% - see above.

Inslee - 40% - He was one of the few early dropouts to come out of the race looking better, but still didn't inspire a movement. Climate change is certainly not getting better in the next four years, though. I think he sits it out.

Bennet - 35% - Maybe he thinks he'll do better without Biden around, but he didn't inspire much of a movement this time. Placed him over Steyer and Patrick only because he will still be a sitting Senator in four years.

Gillibrand - 35% - same reasons as Bennet

Steyer - 30% - I mean, he could for the same reasons that he ran this time, but I hope he learned from this race that he's better as a supporter than a candidate.

Patrick - 30% - By 2024, he'll be almost ten years out of office, and have built no infrastructure this time around for another run. But, he is well-connected and it's not totally out of the question.

Gabbard - 30% - She is retiring from her house seat, and has alienated all but the most anti-establishment conspiracy theory-minded wing of the party. She is still young, though, and perhaps she makes other moves in the next four years to try to sway the Sanders base.

Ryan - 25% - Unlikely. Did not do himself any favors with this run.

Moulton - 25% - Same as above.

de Blasio - 15% - Will not be a relevant figure in four years

O'Rourke - 15% - Same as above.

Sanders - 10% - His movement will outlast him, but he will have failed to win the nomination twice and will be over 80. He may try again as an ideological stand, but he will hit diminishing returns, and I think he is smart enough to realize this and not run.

Delaney - 5% - I've already forgotten who this guy is.

Williamson - 5% - This run was not worth the book sales she was trying to get by running.

Biden - 5% - He will have lost the general and will be over 80 years old. Not happening.

Bloomberg - 0% - My dude just spent a billion dollars to get eviscerated on live television and win a small handful of delegates. Will also be in his 80s.  Not happening.



I'll make another post with who I think will run that didn't run this time.
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Real Texan Politics
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« Reply #12 on: April 04, 2020, 07:16:00 PM »

* Chelsea Clinton - may take after her parents' legacy

* Kamala Harris - may give another shot if she's desperate enough

* Andrew Yang - he's still young and he has a loyal base, plus he has great and unique ideas

* Pete Buttigieg - most of these candidates will probably run just to try again, that said he could end up being one of the lesser likely candidates if he tries to run for governor of Indiana

* Oprah Winfrey - it's been hinted before; even if she may not want to right now, a lot can happen in a few years

* Andrew Cuomo - if he's popular enough in his home state then he could be one of the top choices

* Ilhan Omar - her being born in Somalia may or may not prevent her from running, but her being a major progressive figure could lead her to getting a decent amount of support (though mainly from the muslim community)

* Rashida Tlaib - may have a better chance at actually being a candidate since she was born in Detroit, but will probably run for the same reason as Ilhan Omar

* Stacey Abrams - could be popular among black voters (more so than Kamala), may even have a chance at flipping Georgia assuming she's the nominee

* Beto O'Rourke - if he's not governor of Texas by 2024 then he could definitely have another go at it

* Elizabeth Warren - highly unlikely but she may still have enough support to give it another go (plus her age in 2024 may be disregarded)

* Michelle Obama - if she runs, in my opinion she would be the most likely to be the nominee. She's heavily admired by democrat voters, she's obviously Barack's wife, and she would definitely run on carrying Barack's legacy

* Shaun King - every election has its oddball candidate, and this dude would be the one. He'd mostly just run on civil rights and progressive economic policies like M4A

* Gavin Newsome - popular governor of California, may have a lot of appeal from west coast/southwest states

* Alexandria Ocasio Cortez - easily the most popular and prominent progressive figure of everyone here, she would have massive appeal to young progressive democratic voters and could very likely end up in the top 3

* Tim Kaine - Hillary's running mate from 2016, most likely won't make it far and will probably only be there just to be there
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Lechasseur
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« Reply #13 on: April 05, 2020, 05:32:46 AM »

Would Sherrod Brown possibly run? And if so would he have half a shot?

I could definitely see him retire from the Senate in 2024 anyway so I suppose he'd figure why not
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Cassandra
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« Reply #14 on: April 05, 2020, 03:11:03 PM »

My interpretation of Warren's maneuvering late this cycle is that she wants to run again. If so, I am not convinced that AOC will give up a safe house seat to challenge her. I'm afraid we might not have a socialist standard bearer in 2024.

Adding on to this, here is my shortlist:

Elizabeth Warren
Andrew Cuomo
Amy Klobuchar
Pete Buttigieg
Sherrod Brown

With the final showdown being between Warren and whichever of the others consolidates the "moderate lane." I highly doubt we will see anyone serious take up the Sanders mantle. Maybe Tlaib runs a vanity campaign if she loses reelection to the House.
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ShadowRocket
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« Reply #15 on: April 05, 2020, 06:32:59 PM »

Just off the top of my head:

Cuomo
Warren
Harris
Klobuchar
Booker
Buttigieg
Brown
Whitmer
Newsom
AOC
Kelly
Kennedy (if he wins his primary)
Castro
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