2024 Democratic primary if Trump beats Biden

[rhg2052]

2020 candidates ranked by likelihood to run again if Trump wins reelection -

Warren - 75% - I see it happening. Her main barriers in 2020 were the presence of Sanders overshadowing her on the left and Biden having the electability mantle. She has a proven ability to organize and lead, and would have a lot of supporters ready to jump back in for her on day one. (And yes I am biased, as a Warren supporter.)

Buttigieg - 70% - This guy literally came out of nowhere to be a significant force in Democratic politics. He'll be back, especially in a Biden-less race. The one drawback is that he no longer has a position in government, nor is he likely to within the next term. Will he still be visible and relevant enough four years from now?

Klobuchar - 70% - Picked up a significant amount of support late in the game. Probably thinks that she can win it with this new widespread recognition and a Biden-less race. Besides, if Pete runs again she can't let him win. But did she do quite well enough this time around to justify a second try?

Booker - 60% - He's well-known and generally liked, has four years to work on his pitch, and Biden won't be in the race. He'll be back. Downside is that he didn't exactly hit gold with this run, so is it worth it?

Harris - 60% - Basically the same reasons as Booker.

Yang - 50% - He built a decent movement in this primary, and his ideas are being vindicated by the current crisis. However, I'm inclined to think he will run for a different office between now and 2024 (Mayor of NYC, perhaps?) or go back to focusing on non-profit work.

Castro - 40% - Possible, but I think he either runs for Governor in 2022 or Senate in 2024 instead and backs Warren from the beginning.

Bullock - 40% - If he wins his Senate race, he will have a pretty impressive resume. Hoping to pick up the Biden support. But also, he was inconsequential this time around.

Hickenlooper - 40% - see above.

Inslee - 40% - He was one of the few early dropouts to come out of the race looking better, but still didn't inspire a movement. Climate change is certainly not getting better in the next four years, though. I think he sits it out.

Bennet - 35% - Maybe he thinks he'll do better without Biden around, but he didn't inspire much of a movement this time. Placed him over Steyer and Patrick only because he will still be a sitting Senator in four years.

Gillibrand - 35% - same reasons as Bennet

Steyer - 30% - I mean, he could for the same reasons that he ran this time, but I hope he learned from this race that he's better as a supporter than a candidate.

Patrick - 30% - By 2024, he'll be almost ten years out of office, and have built no infrastructure this time around for another run. But, he is well-connected and it's not totally out of the question.

Gabbard - 30% - She is retiring from her house seat, and has alienated all but the most anti-establishment conspiracy theory-minded wing of the party. She is still young, though, and perhaps she makes other moves in the next four years to try to sway the Sanders base.

Ryan - 25% - Unlikely. Did not do himself any favors with this run.

Moulton - 25% - Same as above.

de Blasio - 15% - Will not be a relevant figure in four years

O'Rourke - 15% - Same as above.

Sanders - 10% - His movement will outlast him, but he will have failed to win the nomination twice and will be over 80. He may try again as an ideological stand, but he will hit diminishing returns, and I think he is smart enough to realize this and not run.

Delaney - 5% - I've already forgotten who this guy is.

Williamson - 5% - This run was not worth the book sales she was trying to get by running.

Biden - 5% - He will have lost the general and will be over 80 years old. Not happening.

Bloomberg - 0% - My dude just spent a billion dollars to get eviscerated on live television and win a small handful of delegates. Will also be in his 80s.  Not happening.



I'll make another post with who I think will run that didn't run this time.