Florida (Hispanics Only) - Biden Leads Trump, Sanders Ties

[wbrocks67]

HISPANICS ONLY

Trump 45
Sanders 44

Biden 58
Trump 38

I mean...

https://media.telemundo51.com/2019/09/Encuesta-Telemundo-Station-Group-Florida-Marzo-2020.pdf

For reference, Hillary won Latinos 62-35 per exits in 2016.

[Sir Mohamed]

Praising Castro doesn't bode well with FL Hispanics. Who would have thought?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I'm personally waiting for the "Wyoming (INDIANS ONLY)" poll.

All four of 'em.   

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is gonna win FL

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Yikes. Bernie would get crushed in Florida with those numbers.

[Politician]

But Atlas told me that candidate fit isn't real and that Cubans and retirees LOVE Bernie!

[AGA]

And people thought Sanders making Florida Likely R was absurd.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is gonna win FL .

[2016]

Biden is gonna win FL

Biden isn't going to win FL. The Cubans won't vote for a Democrat no matter if it's Biden or Sanders.

Per CNN '16 Exits in FL:

Trump won Cuban Hispanics 54-41 (6 % of the Electorate in 2016)
Clinton won Puerto Ricans & other Hispanics 71-26 (10 % of Electorate in 2016)

[UWS]

Biden is gonna win FL

Biden isn't going to win FL. The Cubans won't vote for a Democrat no matter if it's Biden or Sanders.

Per CNN '16 Exits in FL:

Trump won Cuban Hispanics 54-41 (6 % of the Electorate in 2016)
Clinton won Puerto Ricans & other Hispanics 71-26 (10 % of Electorate in 2016)

And also, while Sanders praised the Castro regime, we also have to understand that Biden was among an administration that was dealing with the Castro regime, removed sanctions on that regime with nothing in return, thus just giving them to earn more capitals to strengthen its power, to allow Russian operations in Lourdes and allow the Chinese to conduct listening operations with their listening station in Berupal.

And also Venezuelan Hispanics will also remember Trump's handling of the Venezuelan crisis last year, which will help him to win among them or simply improve his performance among this group.

[SN2903]

Biden is gonna win FL .

NO

[President Johnson]

Bernie is a horrible fit for Florida. Uncle Joe can seal the deal.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems dont need FL, I am guessing lifting of the Cuban embargo that Obama tried to pass and couldnt due to Boehner has something to do with Dems losing ground in FL; consequently,  AZ, GA and NC can flip without FL, OH or IA

[pbrower2a]

Praising Castro doesn't bode well with FL Hispanics. Who would have thought?

The most effective way to defeat Trump in Florida is to show similarities of behavior between Trump and Castro. Huge rallies, rambling and ranting... 

[2016]

Dems dont need FL, I am guessing lifting of the Cuban embargo that Obama tried to pass and couldnt due to Boehner has something to do with Dems losing ground in FL; consequently,  AZ, GA and NC can flip without FL, OH or IA

Let me tell you something:

Losing FL and OH BUT winning the the Presidency, things do not work that way in American Politics. Every Winner of the POTUS Election since 1996 has carried FL & OH. Bill Clinton managed to lose FL in 1992 but won the Election and that's it. GWB carried FL & OH in '00 & '04 twice and so did Obama in '08 & '12. Trump carried FL & OH in 2016.

Good Luck winning FL when you have a GOP Governor with a 65+ JA Rating sitting in Tallahassee.

Republicans are going to win FL because they have the better Infrastructure & GOTV Machine. That's being proven over the last 2 Election Cycles in 2016 & 2018.

In 2016 Hillary Clinton carried Miami-Dade by a whopping 64-34 margin over Trump which was the biggest margin for a Democrat EVER in that County. She carried Hillsborough County, the biggest Swing County not only in FL but in the entire Country by 6 Points. It wasn't enough!

In 2018, a D-Wave year considering they netted 40 House Seats Democrats won the important Counties of Duval, Pinellas, H'Borough, Osceola, Orange YET Gillum & Nelson lost the State.

Conclusion: When it matters most the RNC (2016) and the FL State GOP (2018) delivered and I have no reason to believe that they won't do that again.

NC is the most iffy State for Trump & Tillis having a DEM Governor who will likely expand early voting again. Trump will lose Michigan (because of Whitmer who is similar popular like DeSantis in FL) and Pennslyvania.
Evers in WI seems to me more an accidential Governor and won't have much impact.

I'd say Trump wins 270-268.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Dems dont need FL, I am guessing lifting of the Cuban embargo that Obama tried to pass and couldnt due to Boehner has something to do with Dems losing ground in FL; consequently,  AZ, GA and NC can flip without FL, OH or IA

Let me tell you something:

Losing FL and OH BUT winning the the Presidency, things do not work that way in American Politics. Every Winner of the POTUS Election since 1996 has carried FL & OH. Bill Clinton managed to lose FL in 1992 but won the Election and that's it. GWB carried FL & OH in '00 & '04 twice and so did Obama in '08 & '12. Trump carried FL & OH in 2016.

Good Luck winning FL when you have a GOP Governor with a 65+ JA Rating sitting in Tallahassee.

Republicans are going to win FL because they have the better Infrastructure & GOTV Machine. That's being proven over the last 2 Election Cycles in 2016 & 2018.

In 2016 Hillary Clinton carried Miami-Dade by a whopping 64-34 margin over Trump which was the biggest margin for a Democrat EVER in that County. She carried Hillsborough County, the biggest Swing County not only in FL but in the entire Country by 6 Points. It wasn't enough!

In 2018, a D-Wave year considering they netted 40 House Seats Democrats won the important Counties of Duval, Pinellas, H'Borough, Osceola, Orange YET Gillum & Nelson lost the State.

Conclusion: When it matters most the RNC (2016) and the FL State GOP (2018) delivered and I have no reason to believe that they won't do that again.

NC is the most iffy State for Trump & Tillis having a DEM Governor who will likely expand early voting again. Trump will lose Michigan (because of Whitmer who is similar popular like DeSantis in FL) and Pennslyvania.
Evers in WI seems to me more an accidential Governor and won't have much impact.

I'd say Trump wins 270-268.

If Dems win WI MI PA they win the presidency without FL and OH . Also WI is the new OH and AZ is the new FL

[UWS]

Dems dont need FL, I am guessing lifting of the Cuban embargo that Obama tried to pass and couldnt due to Boehner has something to do with Dems losing ground in FL; consequently,  AZ, GA and NC can flip without FL, OH or IA

Let me tell you something:

Losing FL and OH BUT winning the the Presidency, things do not work that way in American Politics. Every Winner of the POTUS Election since 1996 has carried FL & OH. Bill Clinton managed to lose FL in 1992 but won the Election and that's it. GWB carried FL & OH in '00 & '04 twice and so did Obama in '08 & '12. Trump carried FL & OH in 2016.

Good Luck winning FL when you have a GOP Governor with a 65+ JA Rating sitting in Tallahassee.

Republicans are going to win FL because they have the better Infrastructure & GOTV Machine. That's being proven over the last 2 Election Cycles in 2016 & 2018.

In 2016 Hillary Clinton carried Miami-Dade by a whopping 64-34 margin over Trump which was the biggest margin for a Democrat EVER in that County. She carried Hillsborough County, the biggest Swing County not only in FL but in the entire Country by 6 Points. It wasn't enough!

In 2018, a D-Wave year considering they netted 40 House Seats Democrats won the important Counties of Duval, Pinellas, H'Borough, Osceola, Orange YET Gillum & Nelson lost the State.

Conclusion: When it matters most the RNC (2016) and the FL State GOP (2018) delivered and I have no reason to believe that they won't do that again.

NC is the most iffy State for Trump & Tillis having a DEM Governor who will likely expand early voting again. Trump will lose Michigan (because of Whitmer who is similar popular like DeSantis in FL) and Pennslyvania.
Evers in WI seems to me more an accidential Governor and won't have much impact.

I'd say Trump wins 270-268.

And despite losing the Duval County, home to Jacksonville, Rick Scott pull up a narrow win in the 2018 senate race.

[UWS]

Praising Castro doesn't bode well with FL Hispanics. Who would have thought?

The most effective way to defeat Trump in Florida is to show similarities of behavior between Trump and Castro. Huge rallies, rambling and ranting... 

Trump is not a communist like Castro.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This looks good for Biden, but it still isn't enough for me to want to consider Florida anything but lean R. At best it will be tilt R.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Neither Biden or Bernie are winning Florida both are underperforming Hillary with Hispanic voters and Trump is still popular in the state

[Sbane]

Dems dont need FL, I am guessing lifting of the Cuban embargo that Obama tried to pass and couldnt due to Boehner has something to do with Dems losing ground in FL; consequently,  AZ, GA and NC can flip without FL, OH or IA

Let me tell you something:

Losing FL and OH BUT winning the the Presidency, things do not work that way in American Politics. Every Winner of the POTUS Election since 1996 has carried FL & OH. Bill Clinton managed to lose FL in 1992 but won the Election and that's it. GWB carried FL & OH in '00 & '04 twice and so did Obama in '08 & '12. Trump carried FL & OH in 2016.

Good Luck winning FL when you have a GOP Governor with a 65+ JA Rating sitting in Tallahassee.

Republicans are going to win FL because they have the better Infrastructure & GOTV Machine. That's being proven over the last 2 Election Cycles in 2016 & 2018.

In 2016 Hillary Clinton carried Miami-Dade by a whopping 64-34 margin over Trump which was the biggest margin for a Democrat EVER in that County. She carried Hillsborough County, the biggest Swing County not only in FL but in the entire Country by 6 Points. It wasn't enough!

In 2018, a D-Wave year considering they netted 40 House Seats Democrats won the important Counties of Duval, Pinellas, H'Borough, Osceola, Orange YET Gillum & Nelson lost the State.

Conclusion: When it matters most the RNC (2016) and the FL State GOP (2018) delivered and I have no reason to believe that they won't do that again.

NC is the most iffy State for Trump & Tillis having a DEM Governor who will likely expand early voting again. Trump will lose Michigan (because of Whitmer who is similar popular like DeSantis in FL) and Pennslyvania.
Evers in WI seems to me more an accidential Governor and won't have much impact.

I'd say Trump wins 270-268.

You forgot about AZ and NE-02.

[Catalyst138]

But Atlas told me that candidate fit isn't real and that Cubans and retirees LOVE Bernie!

Literally no one says that retirees love Bernie. Everyone agrees that Sanders does worst with old voters.

[Catalyst138]

Dems dont need FL, I am guessing lifting of the Cuban embargo that Obama tried to pass and couldnt due to Boehner has something to do with Dems losing ground in FL; consequently,  AZ, GA and NC can flip without FL, OH or IA

Let me tell you something:

Losing FL and OH BUT winning the the Presidency, things do not work that way in American Politics. Every Winner of the POTUS Election since 1996 has carried FL & OH. Bill Clinton managed to lose FL in 1992 but won the Election and that's it. GWB carried FL & OH in '00 & '04 twice and so did Obama in '08 & '12. Trump carried FL & OH in 2016.

Good Luck winning FL when you have a GOP Governor with a 65+ JA Rating sitting in Tallahassee.

Republicans are going to win FL because they have the better Infrastructure & GOTV Machine. That's being proven over the last 2 Election Cycles in 2016 & 2018.

In 2016 Hillary Clinton carried Miami-Dade by a whopping 64-34 margin over Trump which was the biggest margin for a Democrat EVER in that County. She carried Hillsborough County, the biggest Swing County not only in FL but in the entire Country by 6 Points. It wasn't enough!

In 2018, a D-Wave year considering they netted 40 House Seats Democrats won the important Counties of Duval, Pinellas, H'Borough, Osceola, Orange YET Gillum & Nelson lost the State.

Conclusion: When it matters most the RNC (2016) and the FL State GOP (2018) delivered and I have no reason to believe that they won't do that again.

NC is the most iffy State for Trump & Tillis having a DEM Governor who will likely expand early voting again. Trump will lose Michigan (because of Whitmer who is similar popular like DeSantis in FL) and Pennslyvania.
Evers in WI seems to me more an accidential Governor and won't have much impact.

I'd say Trump wins 270-268.

You can’t rely on meaningless patterns like this to prove an election. For a while Missouri was a bellwether that always decided elections, until it didn’t. Same thing can happen with Florida.

Democrats have multiple paths to win without Florida, and that is an indisputable FACT.