MI: AtlasIntel: Trump leads Biden

[RI]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200309_MI.pdf

Trump 46, Biden 44
Sanders 46, Trump 43

[Eraserhead]

So glad we're nominating him.

[Podgy the Bear]

So glad we're nominating him.

OMG--the world has collapsed!!!

It's one poll.  Sanders is down by 7 nationally in Rasmussen.  I don't believe that either  They're all over the place. 

[MT Treasurer]

Not sure I buy this (not exactly the most trustworthy pollster either), but I do think Biden is more likely to flip PA than MI.

I also don’t get why we’re getting so many MI polls but no one actually bothered to poll the Senate race in MI.

[Xing]

Yeah, something tells me MI isn't "Likely D."

[😥]

Yes, Biden really needs to pay a lot of attention to Michigan in the general election. This is no longer the first poll to show that he is doing worse here than Bernie. He needs to strengthen his ticket with a one of Midwestern politicians. I don't think Harris, Hassan or Demings will help him win Michigan or Wisconsin much. He needs to choose Klobuchar, Duckworth or Buttigieg. Whitmer would be a great choice, but she has too little experience

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Duckworth and Buttigieg arent Veep material

[ajc0918]

Will this help him

https://twitter.com/MattWolking/status/1237390097407815687

I can't tell if sarcastic but yeah it may help him. People want to see this level of energy.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We have YouGov polls already showing Biden winning all three states

[SN2903]

MI and WI will re-elect the President

[😥]

MI and WI will re-elect the President

Yes, MI and WI will reelect President... Joe Biden in 2024

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

OK.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_biden-6761.html

AtlasIntel isn't even listed in fivethirtyeight's pollster ratings.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MI and WI will re-elect the President

YouGov polls show a different story and have Biden ahead of Trump

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Also, what kind of Common Core Math gives Biden a +8 advantage over Bernie in the primary, but has Biden losing to Trump and Bernie beating Trump? I can't think of how you could even cherry pick a sample to get results like that.

[Politician]

Didn't realize Xingkerui commissioned polls.

Yeah, something tells me MI isn't "Likely D."

Outlier

[ShamDam]

Also, what kind of Common Core Math gives Biden a +8 advantage over Bernie in the primary, but has Biden losing to Trump and Bernie beating Trump? I can't think of how you could even cherry pick a sample to get results like that.

If Biden's advantage is not about actually liking the candidate, but about falsely perceived electability, that would produce these numbers. You would also see these numbers if Biden was really strong among Democratic loyalists who will vote no matter what, but Sanders was stronger among the left, young voters, and independents.

Good thing that's not the case, right? Biden's definitely gonna win?

[Pyro]

NAFTA Joe will lose the Industrial Midwest.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NAFTA Joe will lose the Industrial Midwest.

.
He is blowing out Bernie in WI, MI and OH. Trump is polarizing

[Shadows]

Also, what kind of Common Core Math gives Biden a +8 advantage over Bernie in the primary, but has Biden losing to Trump and Bernie beating Trump? I can't think of how you could even cherry pick a sample to get results like that.

It is a stupid statement & can be easily explained by 1 or more of 3 things -

1. More GOP people cross over to Sanders - Unlikely. No Democrat has won 15-20% of the GOP vote in Decades & neither will Sanders or Biden.
2. Independents go for Sanders & Trump over Biden - Highly Likely. Even in 2020, in 70-80% of the states, Sanders has won more independents than Biden. This Sanders to Trump among Independents in the Mid-West was a common factor in 2016.
3. Many Sanders' supporters stay home - Also highly likely. 90K people voted Democratic downballot but chose not to vote for Clinton over Trump. Biden has no constituency & has the default electability vote while Sanders has a hardcore committed base & there will be a section of Bernie or Bust people.

[MT Treasurer]

NAFTA Joe will lose the Industrial Midwest.

Yeah, because NAFTA is all voters in the "Industrial Midwest" have ever cared about, as evidenced by the landslide losses of Al Gore, John Kerry, and Barack Obama in MI.

You people learned all the wrong lessons from 2016, and it’s no surprise your candidate is getting crushed even worse than last time.

[Ljube]

Polls this far out are not relevant.

[Shadows]

NAFTA Joe will lose the Industrial Midwest.

Yeah, because NAFTA is all voters in the "Industrial Midwest" have ever cared about, as evidenced by the landslide losses of Al Gore, John Kerry, and Barack Obama in MI.

You people learned all the wrong lessons from 2016, and it’s no surprise your candidate is getting crushed even worse than last time.

If that was the case then Hillary Clinton would have been President after winning Michigan, Wisconsin & Pennsylvania. You keep making wrong statements & keep embarrassing statements. The last time a Moderate Democrat supporting NAFTA ran against Trump, they lost Michigan. Secondly, Bush, Mccain, Romney were Free Traders & not Trump railing against NAFTA. There was so major difference in terms of trade.

That assertion stays until Trump is beaten by a similar Democrat.

[MT Treasurer]

NAFTA Joe will lose the Industrial Midwest.

Yeah, because NAFTA is all voters in the "Industrial Midwest" have ever cared about, as evidenced by the landslide losses of Al Gore, John Kerry, and Barack Obama in MI.

You people learned all the wrong lessons from 2016, and it’s no surprise your candidate is getting crushed even worse than last time.

If that was the case then Hillary Clinton would have been President after winning Michigan, Wisconsin & Pennsylvania. You keep making wrong statements & keep embarrassing statements. The last time a Moderate Democrat supporting NAFTA ran against Trump, they lost Michigan. Secondly, Bush, Mccain, Romney were Free Traders & not Trump railing against NAFTA. There was so major difference in terms of trade.

That assertion stays until Trump is beaten by a similar Democrat.

Hillary Clinton lost MI/WI/PA (and the election) because those states were already trending Republican and she was a uniquely unpopular candidate with a ton of baggage running for a third Democratic term in an environment in which the Republican base was energized at unprecedented levels for reasons that go well beyond NAFTA/trade (immigration, Scalia's death/SCOTUS, abortion, hatred of the Clintons, etc.). Take away one of those factors and your pro-NAFTA "moderate" Hillary wins MI, so it is your assertion that rests on laughably shaky foundations.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Also, what kind of Common Core Math gives Biden a +8 advantage over Bernie in the primary, but has Biden losing to Trump and Bernie beating Trump? I can't think of how you could even cherry pick a sample to get results like that.

It is a stupid statement & can be easily explained by 1 or more of 3 things -

1. More GOP people cross over to Sanders - Unlikely. No Democrat has won 15-20% of the GOP vote in Decades & neither will Sanders or Biden.
2. Independents go for Sanders & Trump over Biden - Highly Likely. Even in 2020, in 70-80% of the states, Sanders has won more independents than Biden. This Sanders to Trump among Independents in the Mid-West was a common factor in 2016.
3. Many Sanders' supporters stay home - Also highly likely. 90K people voted Democratic downballot but chose not to vote for Clinton over Trump. Biden has no constituency & has the default electability vote while Sanders has a hardcore committed base & there will be a section of Bernie or Bust people.

I'm not sure I follow your logic.

2. Independents go for Sanders & Trump over Biden Party registration isn't required to vote in the primary. Are you saying there are that many voters who would choose Bernie over Trump, Trump over Biden, but will sit out the primary because they aren't all that interested in who the Democratic nominee is? I'm not buying it.

3. Many Sanders' supporters stay home

Trump 46, Biden 44 = 90% decided.
Sanders 46, Trump 43 = 89% decided.

If Sanders' supporters, when presented with a choice between Biden and Trump, respond that they'll just stay home, but they'll show up for Bernie Sanders against Trump, why does the percentage of decided voters go down with Sanders as the nominee instead of Biden?

+8 support for Biden among people voting in the Democratic primary should not result in Sanders doing worse than Biden in the general election. Something is very wonky about their sampling or methodology.

[Dr. Arch]

Will this help him

https://twitter.com/MattWolking/status/1237390097407815687

I can't tell if sarcastic but yeah it may help him. People want to see this level of energy.

I love how he called him out on the spot.

"You're full of sh**t." You're darn right he is.