MI - Monmouth: Biden +7 , Bernie +5

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_MI_030920/

Bernie Sanders   46%
Donald Trump   41%
(VOL) Other candidate   2%
(VOL) Would not vote   2%
(VOL) Don’t know   9%

     

Joe Biden   48%
Donald Trump   41%
(VOL) Other candidate   2%
(VOL) Would not vote   1%
(VOL) Don’t know   9

[Podgy the Bear]

Again, there's that 41% for Trump which doesn't change. 

As for SN2903 and his allies--who claim that Trump's support is understated in these polls--if Trump is so wonderful, why wouldn't his support go out there and say it? 

[AGA]

I did not believe the last poll that showed Sanders doing so much better than Biden. I think that they are roughly equal Michigan and Wisconsin. Remember that the black vote is important here as well as the white working class.

[Tender Branson]

Good.

[Xing]

Encouraging, but I won't rest easy unless Trump is this far behind in late October.

[SnowLabrador]

Encouraging, but I won't rest easy unless Trump is this far behind in late October.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Again, there's that 41% for Trump which doesn't change. 

As for SN2903 and his allies--who claim that Trump's support is understated in these polls--if Trump is so wonderful, why wouldn't his support go out there and say it? 

There were definitely people who liked Trump and didn't want to say it in 2016, you can see that his personal favorables skyrocketed once he won the election. But there's no reason for that to be the case now with his approvals at 45% and above, and there is no reason to believe a "shy Trump" vote exists in this election.

[MT Treasurer]

Makes no sense to poll the presidential race but not the Senate race, which is looking more and more like a potential tipping-point/bellwether race.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Makes no sense to poll the presidential race but not the Senate race, which is looking more and more like a potential tipping-point/bellwether race.

True. At this point, Maine might go D before Michigan

[Xing]

Makes no sense to poll the presidential race but not the Senate race, which is looking more and more like a potential tipping-point/bellwether race.

I'm not sure how MI will be the tipping point Senate race. It might vote right of AZ-SEN and maybe ME-SEN, but then it would still be the 49th seat for Democrats.

[MT Treasurer]

Makes no sense to poll the presidential race but not the Senate race, which is looking more and more like a potential tipping-point/bellwether race.

I'm not sure how MI will be the tipping point Senate race. It might vote right of AZ-SEN and maybe ME-SEN, but then it would still be the 49th seat for Democrats.

Contrary to popular belief, many of these states (MT, NC, MI, ME, etc.) aren’t actually guaranteed to vote for the same party for President and Senate just because it barely happened in 2016. James winning narrowly wouldn’t exactly tell me a lot about races like MT-SEN or NC-SEN, for instance. Split-ticket voting is still a thing.

[Xing]

Makes no sense to poll the presidential race but not the Senate race, which is looking more and more like a potential tipping-point/bellwether race.

I'm not sure how MI will be the tipping point Senate race. It might vote right of AZ-SEN and maybe ME-SEN, but then it would still be the 49th seat for Democrats.

Contrary to popular belief, many of these states (MT, NC, MI, ME, etc.) aren’t actually guaranteed to vote for the same party for President and Senate just because it barely happened in 2016. James winning narrowly wouldn’t exactly tell me a lot about races like MT-SEN or NC-SEN, for instance. Split-ticket voting is still a thing.

I know, I think AZ-SEN could vote left of MI-SEN even if Trump does better in AZ than MI. I just don't think it's that likely that James wins while Daines and Tillis lose (though they're not unbeatable titans by any means), though obviously MT-SEN will be much closer than MT-PRES.

[MT Treasurer]

I know, I think AZ-SEN could vote left of MI-SEN even if Trump does better in AZ than MI. I just don't think it's that likely that James wins while Daines and Tillis lose (though they're not unbeatable titans by any means), though obviously MT-SEN will be much closer than MT-PRES.

Almost as silly as suggesting that Roy Blunt would win by less than Ron Johnson.

[MillennialModerate]

Encouraging, but I won't rest easy unless Trump is this far behind in late October.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Makes no sense to poll the presidential race but not the Senate race, which is looking more and more like a potential tipping-point/bellwether race.

I'm not sure how MI will be the tipping point Senate race. It might vote right of AZ-SEN and maybe ME-SEN, but then it would still be the 49th seat for Democrats.

Contrary to popular belief, many of these states (MT, NC, MI, ME, etc.) aren’t actually guaranteed to vote for the same party for President and Senate just because it barely happened in 2016. James winning narrowly wouldn’t exactly tell me a lot about races like MT-SEN or NC-SEN, for instance. Split-ticket voting is still a thing.

I know, I think AZ-SEN could vote left of MI-SEN even if Trump does better in AZ than MI. I just don't think it's that likely that James wins while Daines and Tillis lose (though they're not unbeatable titans by any means), though obviously MT-SEN will be much closer than MT-PRES.

Look at Dem maps as opposed to Rs map, the 278 EC is secure along with AZ and NC leaning Dem due to Senate races

Nate Silver 538 says that WI is a Dem state, not R state

[SN2903]

Again, there's that 41% for Trump which doesn't change. 

As for SN2903 and his allies--who claim that Trump's support is understated in these polls--if Trump is so wonderful, why wouldn't his support go out there and say it? 

He didn't lead 1 major poll in MI in 2016.

[Progressive Pessimist]

They were very accurate with the primary results, so this looks pretty good overall.

[ElectionsGuy]

Somehow Trump's number is lower than his national approval in a state that votes to the right of the country. Nice try, Monmouth.

[2016]

Assuming Biden is the Nominee he'll win Michigan BUT not because he is so super-duper great but more likely because of Governor Gretchen Whitmer. Whitmer is similar popular like Gov DeSantis in FL.

[rosin]

Somehow Trump's number is lower than his national approval in a state that votes to the right of the country. Nice try, Monmouth.

People approving of a candidate doesn't neccesarily vote that way

[OSR stands with Israel]

I know, I think AZ-SEN could vote left of MI-SEN even if Trump does better in AZ than MI. I just don't think it's that likely that James wins while Daines and Tillis lose (though they're not unbeatable titans by any means), though obviously MT-SEN will be much closer than MT-PRES.

Almost as silly as suggesting that Roy Blunt would win by less than Ron Johnson.

Roy Blunt ran an atrocious campaign though

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Makes no sense to poll the presidential race but not the Senate race, which is looking more and more like a potential tipping-point/bellwether race.

John james has no chance of winning

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Somehow Trump's number is lower than his national approval in a state that votes to the right of the country. Nice try, Monmouth.

Isn't Trump's approval in MI lower than his national approval?

[Progressive Pessimist]

Assuming Biden is the Nominee he'll win Michigan BUT not because he is so super-duper great but more likely because of Governor Gretchen Whitmer. Whitmer is similar popular like Gov DeSantis in FL.

I thought Whitmer was slightly unpopular.

[Politician]

Makes no sense to poll the presidential race but not the Senate race, which is looking more and more like a potential tipping-point/bellwether race.

I'm not sure how MI will be the tipping point Senate race. It might vote right of AZ-SEN and maybe ME-SEN, but then it would still be the 49th seat for Democrats.

Contrary to popular belief, many of these states (MT, NC, MI, ME, etc.) aren’t actually guaranteed to vote for the same party for President and Senate just because it barely happened in 2016. James winning narrowly wouldn’t exactly tell me a lot about races like MT-SEN or NC-SEN, for instance. Split-ticket voting is still a thing.

Ya, no. If James wins, Daines and Tillis are winning handily.