Pennsylvania (Expedition Strategies) : Trump trails both Sanders and Biden

[Frenchrepublican]

Trump vs Generic D : Trump trails 38/51

Trump vs Biden : Trump trails 42/47
Trump vs Sanders : Trump trails 43/45

[Frenchrepublican]

https://www.progressivepolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/PPI_SwingVoterPoll_Feb2020.pdf

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Trump can probably scare the Pitt suburbs back into line with Sanders.

Biden probably has this, but I think it remains close. The fundamentals of this state and Trump's appeal mean that even with Biden's personal vote in NE PA and the Pittsburgh suburbs being not very fond of Trump, the state probably remains around 5 points unless Trump implodes.

The other thing to consider is that Republicans are probably going to under poll somewhat here as well.

[Landslide Lyndon]

These polls were taken when uncle Joe was left for dead. They are as useless as tits on a bull.

[Skill and Chance]

I will be quite surprised if Biden loses PA in an otherwise close election.  Even a 1-3% home state bump pushes into MN/NV/ME 2016 territory where it's clearly left of the deciding state. 

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Trump can probably scare the Pitt suburbs back into line with Sanders.

Biden probably has this, but I think it remains close. The fundamentals of this state and Trump's appeal mean that even with Biden's personal vote in NE PA and the Pittsburgh suburbs being not very fond of Trump, the state probably remains around 5 points unless Trump implodes.

The other thing to consider is that Republicans are probably going to under poll somewhat here as well.

What do you mean "back" as if the Dems lost them? We gained them from 2012.

[Skill and Chance]

Trump can probably scare the Pitt suburbs back into line with Sanders.

Biden probably has this, but I think it remains close. The fundamentals of this state and Trump's appeal mean that even with Biden's personal vote in NE PA and the Pittsburgh suburbs being not very fond of Trump, the state probably remains around 5 points unless Trump implodes.

The other thing to consider is that Republicans are probably going to under poll somewhat here as well.

This is key.  Based on 2016/18, a tie in WI/MI could really mean anything from a tie to Trump+8, and Dem+4 in PA could really mean anything from that to Trump+4.  The flip side of this is that a tie in AZ/NV probably means Dem+4 in reality and Trump+4 in Texas could mean its really within recount range.

[MT Treasurer]

I feel like MI and especially FL will be the two most important states this year. If Biden flips AZ/PA (which I expect him to, even if it’s by a narrow margin, although you could argue that MI might flip before PA) but holds WI/NC/GA/TX, losing one of FL or MI would sink his reelection even if he flips NH/ME. Since FL closes early and counts very fast, it shouldn’t take too long to figure out how the election will shape up (much like in 2012).

264 - 230 - 45

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Are these polls also not going to get entered since they're good for Democrats?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I feel like MI and especially FL will be the two most important states this year. If Biden flips AZ/PA (which I expect him to, even if it’s by a narrow margin, although you could argue that MI might flip before PA) but holds WI/NC/GA/TX, losing one of FL or MI would sink his reelection even if he flips NH/ME. Since FL closes early and counts very fast, it shouldn’t take too long to figure out how the election will shape up (much like in 2012).

264 - 230 - 45

WI will vote D, Trump with a 2 point lead is hardly anything to brag about with 7 mnths out