Is Iowa still a swing state? (user search)
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  Is Iowa still a swing state? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Is Iowa still a swing state?  (Read 2906 times)
jake_arlington
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Posts: 459


« on: March 10, 2020, 05:37:02 PM »

In my own made up terminology, I consider it to be a battleground state but not a swing state.

Swing state: the states that are plausible or semi-plausible tipping point states
Battleground state: the states that could plausibly vote for either party given a particularly good/bad environment

Lol I use your definition of a battleground for "swing states" instead, but for me country states are instead wherever GE candidates spend most of their time
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jake_arlington
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Posts: 459


« Reply #1 on: March 13, 2020, 03:32:03 PM »


In my own made up terminology, I consider it to be a battleground state but not a swing state.

Swing state: the states that are plausible or semi-plausible tipping point states
Battleground state: the states that could plausibly vote for either party given a particularly good/bad environment

Lol I use your definition of a battleground for "swing states" instead, but for me country states are instead wherever GE candidates spend most of their time

I agree with your definition of "swing state," and your definition of "country state" is my term for a battleground state.

So you see, Bronz, that we have to have a commonly understood definition of "swing state" to answer your question. I would not rate Iowa as a "swing state" according to Orser's definition of one or but I would according to Jake's, and I would call Iowa a battleground state. I expect both Biden and Trump to invest time and money on the state trying to win it because there is, as I see it, some plausibility that it could go either way.

Omg I am so sorry lol. It looks like the autocorrect turned "battleground" into "country" for whateve reason it must've. Moving on though anyway, it looks like we and you booth agree on that one question.

However, as to Iowa specifically, for us it just looks like it's fallen off the map and over our radar altogether, as though history.

And looking back, one could certainly make an argument for IA being swing according to you/my definition of one, in fact it is one of the easiest suspects and most direct/obvious options or actually bouncing back and forth.

Going forward though, i think i would expect it to be solidly leaning red at least, and so no, it really isn't a swing state either, if that means (someplace that is consistently won by more than a single party, i.e. has not been safe) really. However, it's doubtful they will visit it either, due to unlikelihood of its status being seen as a potential target of course, or poorly ranking in one's analysis of the midwestern see-saw races.

So nor should Iowa become a battleground in 2020 unless national and regional picture both shift substantially toward Biden in my view, and a measly 6 EV worth paltry amount, and not to mention a share of famously scrutinous and critical audience who will pick apart at every flaw once paying attention to the campaign during last stretch of GE this fall. Guess only we shall just have to wait however before seeing and (as) such, to be sure.
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