Is Iowa still a swing state?
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Author Topic: Is Iowa still a swing state?  (Read 2886 times)
Suburbia
bronz4141
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« on: March 06, 2020, 08:57:48 AM »
Is it?
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Agonized-Statism
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« Reply #1 on: March 06, 2020, 09:12:17 AM »
Maybe not pure tossup, but it's not Wyoming.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #2 on: March 06, 2020, 09:19:30 AM »
Yes,  King, can cause Ernst to lose, with Biden as the nominee
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Catalyst138
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« Reply #3 on: March 06, 2020, 09:27:02 AM »
Out of all the common "swing" states, it is the second reddest behind Ohio. Probably somewhere between Lean and Likely R in 2020. It's getting redder by the second, though.
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KoopaDaQuick 🇵🇸
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« Reply #4 on: March 06, 2020, 12:20:07 PM »
Yes. Tilt R, but like, still very much a toss-up. It really just depends on who turns out more: the rural vote or the urban vote.
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QAnonKelly
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« Reply #5 on: March 06, 2020, 01:21:31 PM »
Not on the federal level imo
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Xing
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« Reply #6 on: March 06, 2020, 02:33:25 PM »
Not really. It could go Democratic in a wave, but not in a close race.
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« Reply #7 on: March 06, 2020, 03:03:20 PM »
Yes, but not a pure tossup.
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dw93
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« Reply #8 on: March 06, 2020, 05:53:01 PM »
It is more so than Ohio.
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Yellowhammer
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« Reply #9 on: March 06, 2020, 07:25:42 PM »
In the same way that New Mexico / Colorado are "swing states." In other words, it's just on the edge of being competitive, but only winnable if the dems are winning comfortably anyway.
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iceman
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« Reply #10 on: March 07, 2020, 03:26:15 PM »
I do think Iowa is much more elastic than Ohio and Florida
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Gracile
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« Reply #11 on: March 07, 2020, 03:33:52 PM »
At the very least, I would say it's not the state that Democrats would need if they were trying to win the Electoral College.
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andjey
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« Reply #12 on: March 07, 2020, 03:37:08 PM »
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538Electoral
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« Reply #13 on: March 08, 2020, 09:03:54 PM »
Not likely.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #14 on: March 08, 2020, 09:34:05 PM »
Dems should still contest Iowa and Ohio purely for downballot effect.  Not as much as they'd contest Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, or Arizona, of course, but at least a bit.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: March 09, 2020, 02:42:35 PM »
Ernst is popular King isnt, King can cause Ernst to lose
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #16 on: March 09, 2020, 08:48:57 PM »
Its Lean R, so still a swing state in the way Minnesota is one for Lean D
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #17 on: March 10, 2020, 01:33:35 PM »
OH, IA , NM have voted consistently for the Prez winner except in 2000 and 2016, and in those instances, NM correctly predicted the PVI winner, while IA and OH predicted the EC vote winner
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #18 on: March 10, 2020, 02:19:21 PM »
Quote from: KoopaDaQuick on March 06, 2020, 12:20:07 PM
Yes. Tilt R, but like, still very much a toss-up.


Quote from: iceman on March 07, 2020, 03:26:15 PM
I do think Iowa is much more elastic than Ohio and Florida

All Atlas clichés rattled off, well done.
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jamestroll
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« Reply #19 on: March 10, 2020, 02:36:37 PM »
No not really.

Most states can still elect the opposing party but even in a large Biden PV win Iowa probably will not flip.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #20 on: March 10, 2020, 02:57:25 PM »
Quote from: DuPage will vote for Biden on March 10, 2020, 02:36:37 PM
No not really.

Most states can still elect the opposing party but even in a large Biden PV win Iowa probably will not flip.

Bernie Sanders won the primary there and Dems have 3/4 Dems delegation, Biden can win IA and OH and FL


Ernst isnt running against Patty judge and she isnt  as well liked as Grassley
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jamestroll
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« Reply #21 on: March 10, 2020, 03:25:46 PM »
Quote from: Cory Booker on March 10, 2020, 02:57:25 PM
Quote from: DuPage will vote for Biden on March 10, 2020, 02:36:37 PM
No not really.

Most states can still elect the opposing party but even in a large Biden PV win Iowa probably will not flip.

Bernie Sanders won the primary there and Dems have 3/4 Dems delegation, Biden can win IA and OH and FL


Ernst isnt running against Patty judge and she isnt  as well liked as Grassley

No. Biden will not win any of those three states!
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #22 on: March 10, 2020, 03:29:05 PM »
QU has had Biden leading in OH in the last poll
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Orser67
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« Reply #23 on: March 10, 2020, 04:48:15 PM »
In my own made up terminology, I consider it to be a battleground state but not a swing state.

Swing state: the states that are plausible or semi-plausible tipping point states
Battleground state: the states that could plausibly vote for either party given a particularly good/bad environment
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jake_arlington
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« Reply #24 on: March 10, 2020, 05:37:02 PM »
Quote from: Orser67 on March 10, 2020, 04:48:15 PM
In my own made up terminology, I consider it to be a battleground state but not a swing state.

Swing state: the states that are plausible or semi-plausible tipping point states
Battleground state: the states that could plausibly vote for either party given a particularly good/bad environment

Lol I use your definition of a battleground for "swing states" instead, but for me country states are instead wherever GE candidates spend most of their time
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