Which democrat challenger will outperform D presidential nominee most?
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  Which democrat challenger will outperform D presidential nominee most?		 « previous next »
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Mcgrath		  
#2
Bullock		  
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Author Topic: Which democrat challenger will outperform D presidential nominee most?  (Read 1090 times)
lfromnj
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« on: March 05, 2020, 02:42:54 PM »
?
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #1 on: March 05, 2020, 03:26:09 PM »
Bullock. McGrath is a horrible candidate.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #2 on: March 05, 2020, 03:26:20 PM »
Bullock. My track record on KY does have a minor blemish on it, I’ll admit, but I’d be shocked if McGrath was able to do as well as Allison Grimes did
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andjey
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« Reply #3 on: March 05, 2020, 04:22:45 PM »
Bullock, obviously. He even can win I'll give him 50% chance of defeating Daines. He will get 15-20 points more than Biden, while McGrath can even underperform Biden
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Xing
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« Reply #4 on: March 05, 2020, 04:36:03 PM »
Bullock. Even if he doesn't win, he'll probably at least make it somewhat close. McGrath, on the other hand, is going to get absolutely flattened.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #5 on: March 05, 2020, 04:38:34 PM »
Where’s the "Barbara Bollier" option?
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #6 on: March 05, 2020, 04:42:56 PM »
Quote from: MT Treasurer on March 05, 2020, 04:38:34 PM
Where’s the "Barbara Bollier" option?

Blue Kansas is happening at the pres level this year that’s why.

In seriousness, even if Bollier has the fortune of running against Kobach and winning, it probably still wouldn’t necessarily match the overpeeformance Bullock is likely to put up in Montana, no? Like if Trump won Kansas by 10 (GOP won the House vote by 10 in 2018 and that’s probably a good “best realistic case” for Biden). So if Bollier won by, say, 2%, that would still be a 12% overperformance. I guess the question becomes how much do you expect Bullock to outperform Biden by, and how “close” will Biden keep Montana?
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Heir of Camelot
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« Reply #7 on: March 05, 2020, 05:24:02 PM »
Biden will outperform Hillary. Probably in the 10-15 range, maybe even single digits if the stars align. Bullock ran 25 points ahead of Trump last time.

Bullock wins by 5.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #8 on: March 05, 2020, 10:15:03 PM »
Obviously Bullock
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We Live in Black and White
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« Reply #9 on: March 05, 2020, 10:29:01 PM »
Other: Hickenlooper.
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Solid4096
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« Reply #10 on: March 05, 2020, 10:44:27 PM »
Bullock
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Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #11 on: March 06, 2020, 03:56:25 PM »
« Edited: March 06, 2020, 11:12:18 PM by BLOOMENTUM INCREASING »
There's a case for Mark Kelly, the way things are going. I still see Trump winning Arizona by 2-4 points.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #12 on: March 06, 2020, 04:30:45 PM »
« Edited: March 06, 2020, 04:37:03 PM by Frenchrepublican »
As of now my predictions would be

KY : Trump wins 63/35 against Biden while McConnell wins 58/40 thus a -10 points underperformance
MT : Trump wins 56/40 against Biden while Daines wins 51/45 thus also a -10 points underperformance
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #13 on: March 06, 2020, 04:31:49 PM »
Quote from: АndriуValeriovich on March 05, 2020, 04:22:45 PM
Bullock, obviously. He even can win I'll give him 50% chance of defeating Daines. He will get 15-20 points more than Biden, while McGrath can even underperform Biden

Lol

Your post is just insane.
McConnell is not going to overperform Trump
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Gracile
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« Reply #14 on: March 06, 2020, 05:05:48 PM »
Bullock will probably be the Senate Democrat that will most overperform the Democratic nominee.
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Heir of Camelot
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« Reply #15 on: March 06, 2020, 10:20:04 PM »
Quote from: Frenchrepublican on March 06, 2020, 04:30:45 PM
As of now my predictions would be

KY : Trump wins 63/35 against Biden while McConnell wins 58/40 thus a -10 points underperformance
MT : Trump wins 56/40 against Biden while Daines wins 51/45 thus also a -10 points underperformance


Bullock is not losing to Daines by 6 points. Even Kathleen Williams did better than that with the most milquetoast, consultant driven, paint drying campaign I've ever seen in Montana Politics.

Bullock isn't losing at all truth be told. Bullock by 4.
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