Pathway for Dems to take Senate while losing Presidency

[OSR stands with Israel]

Before Bullock ran it was extremely unlikely and while it’s still unlikely , there is a much better path .


So first let’s assume Republicans take AL so that means Democrats would need 5 senate seats to take the senate


Now let’s say : Gardner , McSally, Collins and Daines all lose , which puts the Senate at 50 Democrats to 49 Republicans


Lastly now say in the Georgia senate race , the Republicans nominate Collins and with Trump winning the presidency the Dems would be extremely fired up  while Republicans will be more complacent and with Collins being a bad fit for the suburbs that could cost the GOP a seat in GA which gives control of the senate to the Dems .

[Xing]

If Tillis underperforms Trump, NC is also a possibility, though probably only if Trump wins very narrowly.

[OSR stands with Israel]

If Tillis underperforms Trump, NC is also a possibility, though probably only if Trump wins very narrowly.

If Trump only wins NC very narrowly , he probably loses the election as that means he will have lost AZ too

[Xing]

If Tillis underperforms Trump, NC is also a possibility, though probably only if Trump wins very narrowly.

If Trump only wins NC very narrowly , he probably loses the election as that means he will have lost AZ too

Probably, but not necessarily. I could see a cluster of states (AZ/FL/GA/MI/NC/PA/WI) being decided by 2% or less.

[President Johnson]

Non existent.

Best scenario here is picking up Maine, Arizona and Colorado while losing Alabama. If Cunningham wins in North Carolina, Biden will take the state as well. And even if that all went right, it's still 50-50 with Pence as tie-breaker.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Non existent.

Best scenario here is picking up Maine, Arizona and Colorado while losing Alabama. If Cunningham wins in North Carolina, Biden will take the state as well. And even if that all went right, it's still 50-50 with Pence as tie-breaker.

Montana and the possibility of Republicans own goaling themselves in the GA senate race wold make senate 51-49

[HarrisonL]

Possible, but pretty unlikely still in my opinion.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Unlikely, Dem trifecta 2009-11 that was shortlived with elevate unemployment of 7.5 percent; consequently, with third Term Bush W, will be back, after 2020

[SnowLabrador]

There isn't one. If we're talking four pickups versus five pickups, Trump's already lost.

[MT Treasurer]

It’s neither impossible/non-existent nor incredibly difficult:

- CO is almost certainly going to flip even if Trump wins reelection, and if it doesn’t you’re looking at a 55R/45D or even 56R/44D majority (i.e. CO wouldn’t even be close to the tipping-point state).

- AZ is likely to flip (McSally is underperforming Trump, who’s slightly more likely than not to lose the state to Biden.)

- AL will probably flip, although Tuberville is one of the very few Republicans who could conceivably blow it. The margin of victory here will be embarrassing.

So that’s D+1 (or 52R/48D) right off the bat.

To win the Senate while losing the presidency, Democrats would then need to flip three of the following if (and this is a big if) they can hold MI: 

- MT (very much possible with someone like Bullock, Daines is neither heavily favored nor an unbeatable titan.)
- AK (less likely than MT, but certainly not impossible, especially with Gross running as an Independent.)
- NC (Tillis is more likely than not to underperform Trump, and NC will be close in the presidential race. You wouldn’t believe this reading this forum, but yes, this race is a Tossup at worst for Democrats despite muh polarization.)
- GA (if Democrats can force this into a runoff, Republican complacency/Democratic enthusiasm after a Trump reelection should make this very winnable for Dems, to say nothing of the disastrous trends for the GOP.)
- GA-S (guaranteed to go to a runoff + very underwhelming GOP field)
- KS (Kobach is a disaster and would make the race competitive, Bollier is a strong recruit, the state is trending Democratic, etc.).
- ME (I don’t buy that Collins is DOA, but she’s obviously vulnerable. I don’t think she loses if Trump wins reelection, but it could happen.)
- TX (this one is fairly unlikely, but I do expect TX to be close at the presidential level, and Cornyn is hilariously overrated by many.)

Again, Democrats would need only three of the above, which might be difficult but certainly not impossible. A lot would need to break their way, but the idea that Republicans are guaranteed to hold every Class II Senate seat in a state Trump wins is ludicrous.

However, even if Democrats narrowly lose the Senate in 2020, 2022 isn’t far away. Republicans don’t have much hope of securing a long-term Senate majority simply because they lost races they never should have lost in 2018 (MT/WV/OH), which is why it’s insane to call 2018 a "good" year for Republicans in the Senate (it wasn’t).