Rate Macomb County, MI Trump v. Biden

[SN2903]

Safe R Trump 55 Biden 43

[libertpaulian]

Tossup

[OSR stands with Israel]

Likely R

[Bidenworth2020]

Trump 51- Biden 45

[Politician]

Safe R because all Obama-Trump voters are gone for Democrats

[Holmes]

Feels like you make a thread about Macomb county every other week?

[😥]

Pure Tossup

[Xing]

Likely R, bordering on Safe.

[SN2903]

Pure Tossup

LOL. In your dreams.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Safe R

[Old Man Willow]

Likely R, Trump 52-46.

[It’s so Joever]

Safe R, don’t be delusional.

[Badger]

Remember people. 2016 is forever, and 2012 never happened!

Tilt R

[538Electoral]

Safe R

[VPH]

Tilt R. People seem to forget that 3/4 statewide Democrats carried Macomb in 2018, 5/7 countywide offices are held by Democrats, and that Levin+Bizon carried the county in the 2018 House races over Stearns+Mitchell. It's realigning, sure, but far from safe GOP or even likely GOP, especially with Biden atop the ticket.

[SN2903]

Tilt R. People seem to forget that 3/4 statewide Democrats carried Macomb in 2018, 5/7 countywide offices are held by Democrats, and that Levin+Bizon carried the county in the 2018 House races over Stearns+Mitchell. It's realigning, sure, but far from safe GOP or even likely GOP, especially with Biden atop the ticket.

2018 isn't 2020. Trump wasn't on the ballot, his numbers have come up some since 2018 and this isn't a big D dem year. It's a base election (who can turn out their base better)

[DrScholl]

Lean Democratic. Most of the statewide Democrats carried it in 2018 and has Trump been on the ballot he would have lost it. It's not 2016 anymore.

[Xing]

Likely R, bordering on Safe.

https://giphy.com/gifs/eye-roll-bitch-please-Fjr6v88OPk7U4

Again there's a big difference between Obama/Trump counties that went for Trump by 5% or less, and those that went for Trump by double digits.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

If I told you about a suburban college educated CD that flipped from Romney +4 to Clinton +12, it would be safe D in a landslide according to Atlas, and Atlas would be right. Based off everything we know as of now (ie, no anti Trump mega landslide) Safe R is the similarily only realistic answer here

[DrScholl]

If I told you about a suburban college educated CD that flipped from Romney +4 to Clinton +12, it would be safe D in a landslide according to Atlas, and Atlas would be right. Based off everything we know as of now (ie, no anti Trump mega landslide) Safe R is the similarily only realistic answer here

The problem with that logic is that it isn't supported with numbers. There are a number of Romney to Clinton counties that maintained some of the swing in elections after 2016, but the same cannot be said of Macomb County. If it was Safe Republican then Republicans would have carried it in 2018 even while losing statewide.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Likely R, bordering on Safe.

https://giphy.com/gifs/eye-roll-bitch-please-Fjr6v88OPk7U4

Again there's a big difference between Obama/Trump counties that went for Trump by 5% or less, and those that went for Trump by double digits.

Usually I agree, but Macomb swung back Dem in 2018 and Democrats narrowly won it in both the gubernatorial and Senate races. I would call it Likely R

[Libertas Vel Mors]

If I told you about a suburban college educated CD that flipped from Romney +4 to Clinton +12, it would be safe D in a landslide according to Atlas, and Atlas would be right. Based off everything we know as of now (ie, no anti Trump mega landslide) Safe R is the similarily only realistic answer here

The problem with that logic is that it isn't supported with numbers. There are a number of Romney to Clinton counties that maintained some of the swing in elections after 2016, but the same cannot be said of Macomb County. If it was Safe Republican then Republicans would have carried it in 2018 even while losing statewide.

In 2008, Obama flipped Dallas County for the first time in a generation. In 2010, it went red in the statewide races. Should we have interpreted this as evidence it would vote for Mitt Romney in 2012, or that Democrats did badly in a blue county in a red wave?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

If I told you about a suburban college educated CD that flipped from Romney +4 to Clinton +12, it would be safe D in a landslide according to Atlas, and Atlas would be right. Based off everything we know as of now (ie, no anti Trump mega landslide) Safe R is the similarily only realistic answer here

The problem with that logic is that it isn't supported with numbers. There are a number of Romney to Clinton counties that maintained some of the swing in elections after 2016, but the same cannot be said of Macomb County. If it was Safe Republican then Republicans would have carried it in 2018 even while losing statewide.

In 2008, Obama flipped Dallas County for the first time in a generation. In 2010, it went red in the statewide races. Should we have interpreted this as evidence it would vote for Mitt Romney in 2012, or that Democrats did badly in a blue county in a red wave?

Seeing as Dallas County voted for all Dems except for the LG candidate (and by a fraction of a point) in 2010 and went 55-42D for Governor, yes, it would have been very Safe D

[Libertas Vel Mors]

If I told you about a suburban college educated CD that flipped from Romney +4 to Clinton +12, it would be safe D in a landslide according to Atlas, and Atlas would be right. Based off everything we know as of now (ie, no anti Trump mega landslide) Safe R is the similarily only realistic answer here

The problem with that logic is that it isn't supported with numbers. There are a number of Romney to Clinton counties that maintained some of the swing in elections after 2016, but the same cannot be said of Macomb County. If it was Safe Republican then Republicans would have carried it in 2018 even while losing statewide.

In 2008, Obama flipped Dallas County for the first time in a generation. In 2010, it went red in the statewide races. Should we have interpreted this as evidence it would vote for Mitt Romney in 2012, or that Democrats did badly in a blue county in a red wave?

Seeing as Dallas County voted for all Dems except for the LG candidate (and by a fraction of a point) in 2010 and went 55-42D for Governor, yes, it would have been very Safe D

Ah, my apologies. For some reason I was thinking of Bexar County in my head, which did go blue in the Governor race but stayed red other than that. My bad!

[Xing]

Likely R, bordering on Safe.

https://giphy.com/gifs/eye-roll-bitch-please-Fjr6v88OPk7U4

Again there's a big difference between Obama/Trump counties that went for Trump by 5% or less, and those that went for Trump by double digits.

Usually I agree, but Macomb swung back Dem in 2018 and Democrats narrowly won it in both the gubernatorial and Senate races. I would call it Likely R

Right, I rated it Likely R as well, but I really doubt that Biden will win Michigan by mid-high single digits.