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October 25, 2020, 12:01:11 PM
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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE, ON Progressive)
  MI-Glengariff: Biden +6
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Author Topic: MI-Glengariff: Biden +6  (Read 1744 times)
Skye
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« on: March 04, 2020, 07:46:34 AM »

Biden 29
Sanders 23
Bloomberg 11
Warren 7
Buttigieg 6
Klobuchar 3

Quote
The poll was conducted Friday through Tuesday.

https://eu.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2020/03/04/poll-biden-leads-sanders-michigan-ahead-democratic-primary/4942959002/
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Peter Henderson/Kamelamela Harris 2020
Patrick97
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« Reply #1 on: March 04, 2020, 07:53:18 AM »

Considering Biden's strength with African Americans, the amount of defected Republicans, and overperforming Hillary with rural whites likely points to a Biden victory in Michigan.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #2 on: March 04, 2020, 08:00:49 AM »

Barring a 2016 style upset here, this is going to Biden's to lose.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #3 on: March 04, 2020, 08:08:31 AM »

WI and IL are heavily Bernie states due to Latinos in IL and WI progressives. MI was only gonna vote Bernie if he got that 200 delegate lead out of Cali and won ST, which he didn't
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UWS
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« Reply #4 on: March 04, 2020, 08:13:29 AM »

Considering Biden's strength with African Americans, the amount of defected Republicans, and overperforming Hillary with rural whites likely points to a Biden victory in Michigan.

And also with the 3 % of Klobuchar supporters in this poll who will likely join Biden now that all the establishment is rallied behind him, unfortunately.
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jeron
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« Reply #5 on: March 04, 2020, 08:19:59 AM »

In the end Biden probably wins by about 15.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #6 on: March 04, 2020, 09:52:24 AM »

Bernie needs this state to comeback, without MI, its lost
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Xing
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« Reply #7 on: March 04, 2020, 10:12:32 AM »

ID and WA might be the last states Sanders wins. Not even confident about ID.
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Dr. RI, Trustbuster
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« Reply #8 on: March 04, 2020, 10:20:21 AM »

ID and WA might be the last states Sanders wins. Not even confident about ID.

After last night, Biden probably wins WA as well.
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Ljube
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« Reply #9 on: March 04, 2020, 10:21:39 AM »

When will Sanders drop out?
The smart thing to do would be - now.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #10 on: March 04, 2020, 10:22:42 AM »

ID and WA might be the last states Sanders wins. Not even confident about ID.

IL and WI still will vote for Bernie, IL is heavily Latino
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Xing
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« Reply #11 on: March 04, 2020, 10:22:50 AM »

ID and WA might be the last states Sanders wins. Not even confident about ID.

After last night, Biden probably wins WA as well.

Based on how CA and CO voted, I'd still bet on Sanders. I don't think a lot of Warren voters will switch to Biden, and I'm still not sure there's enough Not Sanders/Warren vote for Biden to pull out a plurality (since not all voters not in the Sanders/Warren camp will get behind Biden.)
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АndriуValeriovich
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« Reply #12 on: March 04, 2020, 10:22:52 AM »

Add numbers of Bloomberg, Buttigieg and Klobuchar and you will have 49% for Joe Biden
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Peter Henderson/Kamelamela Harris 2020
Patrick97
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« Reply #13 on: March 04, 2020, 10:57:29 AM »

ID and WA might be the last states Sanders wins. Not even confident about ID.

IL and WI still will vote for Bernie, IL is heavily Latino
I agree that Sanders is favored in WI but not in IL. Biden will almost certainly win Dupage and Will counties. Plus Sanders really underperformed in rural areas last night and Biden can flip a lot of those counties downstate.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #14 on: March 04, 2020, 12:18:20 PM »

ID and WA might be the last states Sanders wins. Not even confident about ID.

After last night, Biden probably wins WA as well.

I cant imagine that happening.
I'm not the one who goes around saying "this candidate or that candidate should drop-out," but if Bernie were to lose Washington, he should drop-out.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #15 on: March 04, 2020, 12:37:01 PM »

Considering Biden's strength with African Americans, the amount of defected Republicans, and overperforming Hillary with rural whites likely points to a Biden victory in Michigan.

And even if Bernie pulls off another miracle and wins it, he will net very few delegates.
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Dr. RI, Trustbuster
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« Reply #16 on: March 04, 2020, 12:44:38 PM »

ID and WA might be the last states Sanders wins. Not even confident about ID.

After last night, Biden probably wins WA as well.

I cant imagine that happening.
I'm not the one who goes around saying "this candidate or that candidate should drop-out," but if Bernie were to lose Washington, he should drop-out.

The average WA Dem is a lot more moderate than people seem to think on this site. Seattle progressives are not the norm. I've lived all over WA for 25+ years, and I'll call this now: Unless Biden somehow collapses in the next week or Warren drops out, Bernie will not cross 35% of the vote in WA, much less get the 40-45% it will take to win.
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Xing
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« Reply #17 on: March 04, 2020, 01:11:29 PM »

ID and WA might be the last states Sanders wins. Not even confident about ID.

After last night, Biden probably wins WA as well.

I cant imagine that happening.
I'm not the one who goes around saying "this candidate or that candidate should drop-out," but if Bernie were to lose Washington, he should drop-out.

The average WA Dem is a lot more moderate than people seem to think on this site. Seattle progressives are not the norm. I've lived all over WA for 25+ years, and I'll call this now: Unless Biden somehow collapses in the next week or Warren drops out, Bernie will not cross 35% of the vote in WA, much less get the 40-45% it will take to win.

My experience in WA has been very different, and while Democrats are somewhat more moderate in certain parts of the state, the Puget Sound area really dominates elections, and unless Biden can at least come close in the Seattle area, I don't think he pulls it out. Probably not a decisive win for Sanders, but I'd sooner bet on him.
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Dr. RI, Trustbuster
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« Reply #18 on: March 04, 2020, 01:17:45 PM »

ID and WA might be the last states Sanders wins. Not even confident about ID.

After last night, Biden probably wins WA as well.

I cant imagine that happening.
I'm not the one who goes around saying "this candidate or that candidate should drop-out," but if Bernie were to lose Washington, he should drop-out.

The average WA Dem is a lot more moderate than people seem to think on this site. Seattle progressives are not the norm. I've lived all over WA for 25+ years, and I'll call this now: Unless Biden somehow collapses in the next week or Warren drops out, Bernie will not cross 35% of the vote in WA, much less get the 40-45% it will take to win.

My experience in WA has been very different, and while Democrats are somewhat more moderate in certain parts of the state, the Puget Sound area really dominates elections, and unless Biden can at least come close in the Seattle area, I don't think he pulls it out. Probably not a decisive win for Sanders, but I'd sooner bet on him.

Biden will not win Seattle proper, but he will sweep through Everett, Lynnwood, Bothell, Bellevue, Sammamish, Renton, Kent, Auburn, Federal Way, Tacoma, Puyallup, Bremerton, etc., just as Biden won Hennepin County despite likely losing Minneapolis. The Seattle suburbs are booming and teeming with moderate Dems and former moderate Republicans who fled the GOP in 2016.
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Xing
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« Reply #19 on: March 04, 2020, 01:20:01 PM »

ID and WA might be the last states Sanders wins. Not even confident about ID.

After last night, Biden probably wins WA as well.

I cant imagine that happening.
I'm not the one who goes around saying "this candidate or that candidate should drop-out," but if Bernie were to lose Washington, he should drop-out.

The average WA Dem is a lot more moderate than people seem to think on this site. Seattle progressives are not the norm. I've lived all over WA for 25+ years, and I'll call this now: Unless Biden somehow collapses in the next week or Warren drops out, Bernie will not cross 35% of the vote in WA, much less get the 40-45% it will take to win.

My experience in WA has been very different, and while Democrats are somewhat more moderate in certain parts of the state, the Puget Sound area really dominates elections, and unless Biden can at least come close in the Seattle area, I don't think he pulls it out. Probably not a decisive win for Sanders, but I'd sooner bet on him.

Biden will not win Seattle proper, but he will sweep through Everett, Lynnwood, Bothell, Bellevue, Sammamish, Renton, Kent, Auburn, Federal Way, Tacoma, Puyallup, Bremerton, etc., just as Biden won Hennepin County despite likely losing Minneapolis. The Seattle suburbs are booming and teeming with moderate Dems and former moderate Republicans who fled the GOP in 2016.

I don't think MN is really comparable, since the Klobuchar endorsement likely gave Biden a huge boost. I could see Biden doing well in Tacoma, but I don't think he'll sweep through Renton or Bellevue, given the high Latino and Asian populations there.
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Dr. RI, Trustbuster
realisticidealist
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« Reply #20 on: March 04, 2020, 01:23:08 PM »

ID and WA might be the last states Sanders wins. Not even confident about ID.

After last night, Biden probably wins WA as well.

I cant imagine that happening.
I'm not the one who goes around saying "this candidate or that candidate should drop-out," but if Bernie were to lose Washington, he should drop-out.

The average WA Dem is a lot more moderate than people seem to think on this site. Seattle progressives are not the norm. I've lived all over WA for 25+ years, and I'll call this now: Unless Biden somehow collapses in the next week or Warren drops out, Bernie will not cross 35% of the vote in WA, much less get the 40-45% it will take to win.

My experience in WA has been very different, and while Democrats are somewhat more moderate in certain parts of the state, the Puget Sound area really dominates elections, and unless Biden can at least come close in the Seattle area, I don't think he pulls it out. Probably not a decisive win for Sanders, but I'd sooner bet on him.

Biden will not win Seattle proper, but he will sweep through Everett, Lynnwood, Bothell, Bellevue, Sammamish, Renton, Kent, Auburn, Federal Way, Tacoma, Puyallup, Bremerton, etc., just as Biden won Hennepin County despite likely losing Minneapolis. The Seattle suburbs are booming and teeming with moderate Dems and former moderate Republicans who fled the GOP in 2016.

I don't think MN is really comparable, since the Klobuchar endorsement likely gave Biden a huge boost. I could see Biden doing well in Tacoma, but I don't think he'll sweep through Renton or Bellevue, given the high Latino and Asian populations there.

Well, I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree and see what happens next week. Hopefully we'll get some polling in the meantime.
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President Biden
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« Reply #21 on: March 04, 2020, 01:24:09 PM »

Biden is going to win every remaining state except Idaho.
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NHI
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« Reply #22 on: March 04, 2020, 06:14:41 PM »

MI is a must win!
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Kansas City Suburbanite for Orman-Clinton-Kelly For Marshall
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« Reply #23 on: March 04, 2020, 06:54:28 PM »

ID and WA might be the last states Sanders wins. Not even confident about ID.

After last night, Biden probably wins WA as well.

Yea, Seattle and Minneapolis are very similar cities. Both are left wing strongholds, and Biden won Minneapolis in his big MN victory. I think that Biden will lose the interior west states such as ID, but win the plains primaries such as KS, SD, and NE. ND is iffy due to the caucus there.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #24 on: March 04, 2020, 08:00:41 PM »

Biden will probably win here now but Michigan polling should be ignored as a general rule.
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