Congressional Primary Results Megathread

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

California

Uncounted ballots (statewide): 67,748

FINAL Calls:

CA-19 Slot 2: Aguilera (R)
CA-28 Slot 2: Early (R)
CA-40 Slot 2: Delgado (R)
CA-43 Slot 2: Collins III (R)

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CA-10: 49.1% D - 50.9% R (Ballots Remaining: Up to 18,707)
CA-21: 47.9% D - 52.1% R (Counting Complete)
CA-25: 49% D - 49.6% R (Counting Complete)
CA-39: 46.9% D - 48.3% R (Counting Complete)
CA-48: 46.7% D - 50.6% R (Counting Complete)

Not sure what to make of CA-25, since in the Special, the Dems won the Jungle 50.5%-49.5%. So that's looking like a total toss-up with the split decision between the special jungle and the regular jungle.

CA-21, CA-39, CA-48 will be tough for Dems to hold if these numbers are any indication. Keep in mind that these contests took place at a time where the democratic presidential primary was still competitive, unlike in 2016, so Dems had much more reason to turn out this time. And they still elected not to. Certainly a concern.

We're still in a wait and see mode on CA-10 with all those votes outstanding there.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

CA-10 is R 50.2%-49.8% in the final count. Definitely a Toss up for the fall.

~28k votes left to count statewide. Counting to conclude by April 24

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With all counting finally complete in California, here's the margins in the competitive and historically competitive districts:

CA-4: 58.5% GOP
CA-7: 59.8% Dem+GRN
CA-10: 50.2% GOP
CA-21: 52.1% GOP
CA-22: 56.1% GOP
CA-24: 57.8% Dem
CA-25 Reg: 49.6% GOP - 49% Dem
CA-25 Special: 50.5% Dem
CA-26: 64.4% Dem
CA-31: 62.2% Dem
CA-36: 60.5% Dem
CA-39: 48.3% GOP - 46.9% Dem
CA-45: 50.8% Dem
CA-48: 50.6% GOP
CA-49: 56.6% Dem
CA-50: 55.7% GOP
CA-52: 65.1% Dem

Next Primaries are in Ohio on the 28th.

[GMantis]

CA-10 is R 50.2%-49.8% in the final count. Definitely a Toss up for the fall.

~28k votes left to count statewide. Counting to conclude by April 24

Since the introduction of the jungle primary, no Republican candidate has won a general election for representative in which the total Republican vote in the primary was less than 52% (when calculated as percentage of the total Democratic + Republican vote), and only twice when it was less than 55%. I'd rate this race likely Democratic.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Tonight: OHIO

Results: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/elections/results-ohio-primary-elections.html

Polls close at 7:30 ET

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Polls are closed

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

First Calls:

OH-2 R: Wenstrup
OH-6 R: Johnson


Remaining contested races: OH-1 D, OH-3 D & R, OH-4 D, OH-5 D, OH-8 D & R, OH-9 D & R, OH-10 D & R, OH-11 D & R, OH-12 D & R, OH-13 R, OH-14 R, OH-15 D and R, OH-16 D

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

More Calls:

OH-10 R: Turner
OH-12 R: Balderson
OH-15 R: Stivers

That leaves: OH-1 D, OH-3 D & R, OH-4 D, OH-5 D, OH-8 D & R, OH-9 D & R, OH-10 D, OH-11 D & R, OH-12 D, OH-13 R, OH-14 R, OH-15 D, OH-16 D

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

More Calls:

OH-14 R: Joyce
OH-9 D: Kaptur

That leaves: OH-1 D, OH-3 D & R, OH-4 D, OH-5 D, OH-8 D & R, OH-9 R, OH-10 D, OH-11 D & R, OH-12 D, OH-13 R, OH-15 D, OH-16 D

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

OH-8 R: Davidson

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

OH-8 D: Enoch
OH-10 D: Tims

Remaining:  OH-1 D, OH-3 D & R, OH-4 D, OH-5 D, OH-9 R, OH-11 D & R, OH-12 D, OH-13 R, OH-15 D, OH-16 D

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

OH-13 R: Hagan

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

OH-4 D: Fresher
OH-5 D: Rubando
OH-11 D: Fudge
OH-16 D: Godfrey


Remaining: OH-1 D, OH-3 D & R, OH-9 R, OH-11 R, OH-12 D, OH-15 D

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

OH-9 R: Weber

[2016]

The so serious Challenger to Republican Troy Balderson is currently losing. Delaware County will make the Difference in that Race.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

OH-3 D: Beatty
OH-3 R: Richardson
OH-12 D: Shearer
OH-15 D: Newby

Remaining: OH-1 D, OH-11 R

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

OH-11 R: Gore

[GMantis]

I think OH-1 can safely be called for Kate Schroder. She's won Warren county despite Foster being from there and considering that Schroder is from Hamilton county and has the support of most important Democrats there, it's near certain that she would win there.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

OH-1 D: Schroeder

Next state is Nebraska on May 12.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

TODAY: NEBRASKA

NE-SEN D & R
NE-1 D
NE-2 D & R
NE-3 R

Results: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/12/us/elections/results-nebraska-primary-elections.html

Polls close at 9 ET

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

NE-SEN R: Sasse
NE-1 D: Bolz
NE-2 D: Eastman
NE-2 R: Bacon
NE-3 R: Smith

NE-SEN D too close to call

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

NE-SEN D: Janicek

Next state is Oregon on May 19.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

OREGON TONIGHT:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/19/us/elections/results-oregon-primary-elections.html

We've got a contested republican senate primary, contested D and R primaries for every U.S. House District, Portland Mayoral Election, and contested D and R primaries for secretary of state. Polls close at 11 ET.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

First Calls:

R Sen: Perkins
OR-1 D: Bonamici
OR-3 D: Blumenauer
OR-3 R: Harbour
OR-4 D: DeFazio
OR-4 R: Skarlatos
OR-5 D: Schrader
SOS R: Thatcher

[Gracile]

Buehler is currently in third place in the OR-02 primary, though it appears none of Deschutes (his home base) is in.