Data For Progress: Polls for every Super Tuesday state

[n1240]

https://twitter.com/DataProgress/status/1234742957779177473

Very favorable for Biden overall

[Gracile]

They didn't include Maine in the original tweet:

https://twitter.com/SeanMcElwee/status/1234744314233860096

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TX was gonna be close either way

[BlueSwan]

These certainly look encouraging for Uncle Joe. If he can keep the California loss to single digits and do well in the south, then we have a real race here. Who would have thought it right after Nevada?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

What a shock, Bloomberg has collapsed and it opens the door for Biden? Oh well.

[n1240]

Some of these polls have small samples despite being conducted over a five day period (although I guess it's possible a majority of the respondents in some polls were only polled 3/1 and 3/2?).

"Data for Progress conducted a poll of 300 likely TX voters from 02/27/2020 to 03/02/2020. Likely voters were identified from the voter file and weighted to a likely electorate. The survey was conducted via text-to-web and web panel, with 70% from text to web and 30% from panel data. The margin of error is +/- 5.7."

https://www.dataforprogress.org/memos/super-tuesday-final-polling

[CookieDamage]

If these turn out accurate, Bernie is gonna be the underdog.

[Eraserhead]

Ugh. These are not good. I guess they could be worse.

If these are close to the actual results we are probably getting a 50 state race that Biden would be favored in though.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If these turn out accurate, Bernie is gonna be the underdog.

Yes, I have been getting swamped by text messages asking me to vote for Bernie. The Public Enemy with Flavor Flav, dissing Bernie, wasnt the concert, he was looking for. I am glad I didnt show up

[Terry the Fat Shark]

TX poll is junk: They have Bernie taking 37% with hispanics and Biden at 64% among African Americans....which would be higher than SC even though Bloomberg is in the race....

[Sbane]

Ugh. These are not good. I guess they could be worse.

If these are close to the actual results we are probably getting a 50 state race that Biden would be favored in though.

Yeah, exactly. Though if all those numbers were shifted just 5 points to Bernie, that would be enough to swing it back in Bernie's favor. Let us see what tomorrow holds.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It boils down to Bloomberg, it all depends on how much support he takes from Biden tomorrow,  pollsters can't predict that, Bernie has lost momentum

[Eraserhead]

Man, the sample sizes on almost all of these polls are absurdly small though.

[Adam Griffin]

All 4 candidates viable in all but 2 states (and in both of those, 3 out of 4 are viable; Warren non-viable in AL & NC)? Bloomberg viable everywhere? Doesn't seem at all like what we'd expect with a winnowing field. Sanders still leads in delegates based even on this atrocious result (applying statewide outcomes to every CD, of course), but obviously not by a meaningful amount (~30 delegates).

Also, 200-500 responses for each state? If this ends up being accurate on a grand scale, it'll be luck. Yet again, their crosstabs are all over the place. Let's not also forget the 49% white, 35% black SC electorate they forecast.

[Adam Griffin]

Another fun stat: Sanders unfavorables. This shows something fundamentally foreign to like every poll ever; I can understand vote consolidation from dropouts not benefiting him, but that doesn't explain why like 1 in 5 voters who have liked him suddenly decide "nah" in the past few days.

Among Bernie's "best" states favorability-wise, we have the liberal bastions of Texas and Alabama. Who hates him the most? His home state, of course!

Unfavorables, Sanders
ME: 27%
TX: 30%
MA: 32%
AL: 35%
MN: 37%
OK: 39%
CO: 40%
UT: 40%
AR: 41%
CA: 41%
TN: 41%
NC: 44%
VA: 50%
VT: 53%

[win win]

https://twitter.com/DataProgress/status/1234742957779177473

Very favorable for Biden overall

This is Biden country

[Pollster]

All of these polls have huge margins of error, which is understandable as this is already an expensive lot of polling and increasing the sample sizes may have not been affordable for them.

That MA result looks potentially disastrous for Sanders.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

This race may be neck and neck from here on out if these results are accurate. I think it's clear that VA and NC are lost for Sanders. I'd be surprised if he wins TX at this rate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bloomberg finished Bernie with subpar performances in Polls

[AN63093]

I don't know if Biden is actually up 15 here, but this is certainly closer to what I expected the result to be in comparison to their last poll having Sanders +9.  Sanders is not a great fit for VA and this should be one of Biden's better states.. maybe not up to SC or AL, of course.. but still.. Sanders +9 seemed unlikely.  I don't know if that's because the last poll was off or because Biden is starting to unite the non-Sanders factions.  

If it's the latter, that would be the more alarming development for Sanders, since I think he benefits from the field remaining as fractured as possible.  And that's actually the good news for Sanders in these polls (at least IMO), that even though some of the results don't look great for him, the polls have both Bloomberg/Warren viable almost everywhere (as Adam pointed out), which I tend to think is to Sanders' advantage.  Here in VA, Bloomberg is still pulling 18%, so you have to imagine Biden would be clearing 50% here pretty easily if Bloomberg was out.

Of course, there's two schools of thought on that, the other being that Sanders comes out ahead in a 1 v 1 race.. but I'm of the opinion that his better chance is the Trump '16 strategy and the longer he can keep this from becoming a straight Sanders v Biden choice, the better off he'll be.

[Xing]

Pretty bad for Sanders if true, but we’ll know for sure (with the exception of CA) in a matter of hours.

[tmthforu94]

Another fun stat: Sanders unfavorables. This shows something fundamentally foreign to like every poll ever; I can understand vote consolidation from dropouts not benefiting him, but that doesn't explain why like 1 in 5 voters who have liked him suddenly decide "nah" in the past few days.

Among Bernie's "best" states favorability-wise, we have the liberal bastions of Texas and Alabama. Who hates him the most? His home state, of course!

Unfavorables, Sanders
ME: 27%
TX: 30%
MA: 32%
AL: 35%
MN: 37%
OK: 39%
CO: 40%
UT: 40%
AR: 41%
CA: 41%
TN: 41%
NC: 44%
VA: 50%
VT: 53%

I think you got the numbers mixed up, his disapprovals are only 29% in Vermont.

[DrScholl]

Late deciders most certainly seem to have effected the primaries. I didn't vote for Biden until after he placed second in Nevada and it seems like a lot of other people waited until he showed some sign of life before they committed to him.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TX and OK may be off, we have to wait til tonight to see the results

[DrScholl]

Ran the delegate math based on this polls

Sanders 425
Biden 415
Bloomberg 262
Warren 235