Brazil Municipal Elections (November 15th, November 29th, 2020)

[DC Al Fine]

What is the "DEM" party?

It’s the “Democrats” party, a right/center-right one. DEM = Democrats.

Don’t like them at all but they’re better alternative than far-right Bolsonaro candidates or candidates from the “Republicanos” party (like Crivella or Russomanno) who focus way too much on religion and like to appeal to evangelical voters.

In that sense, DEM is replacing these more radical and dumber sectors of the right, which is good. I would rather have DEM canalize the strength of the right like PSDB used to do, since they’re more moderate in comparison to this right that emerged in 2016/2018.

Hell, the Rio left hates Eduardo Paes (DEM), but we’ll definitely support him against Crivella (Rep).

What are the demographic/ideological differences between Democrats and PSDB?

[DC Al Fine]

I do not see a path for the left in Brazil in 2022. There's no main leading figure or possible leading figure able to unite it. Plus, the recent surge of PSOL in many big cities could create tensions on who leads the left in the future. The "centrão" seems more likely to have a winning strategy, but, then again, it lacks also a leading figure as of now: Doria is quite unpopular right now in São Paulo, Moro is very divisive and Luciano Huck isn't serious, IMO. However, it's possible some figure emerges in the next two years, a lot of water will pass under the bridge till 2022, but again, the "centrão" seems, IMO, more able to create a strong challenge against Bolsonaro than the left. But, Bolsonaro is still, against all odds, relatively popular and, for example, unlike Trump he has a positive job approval right now, only just, but positive nonetheless. He could, if he even runs for a 2nd term, who knows, have a pretty good shot in the 2022 elections, but, all depends on who's on the other side.

Agreed.

Anti-Bolsonaro forces will also likely run into the same problem  that US political parties have when out of power. That is, during  midterm election, the President has to wear their record, while the the opposition isn't tied to a particular person and can be more wide ranging... but when the President comes up for re-election, their opponent is no longer general opposition, but a specific person, with enemies, mistakes of their own etc.

[DC Al Fine]

I do not see a path for the left in Brazil in 2022. There's no main leading figure or possible leading figure able to unite it. Plus, the recent surge of PSOL in many big cities could create tensions on who leads the left in the future. The "centrão" seems more likely to have a winning strategy, but, then again, it lacks also a leading figure as of now: Doria is quite unpopular right now in São Paulo, Moro is very divisive and Luciano Huck isn't serious, IMO. However, it's possible some figure emerges in the next two years, a lot of water will pass under the bridge till 2022, but again, the "centrão" seems, IMO, more able to create a strong challenge against Bolsonaro than the left. But, Bolsonaro is still, against all odds, relatively popular and, for example, unlike Trump he has a positive job approval right now, only just, but positive nonetheless. He could, if he even runs for a 2nd term, who knows, have a pretty good shot in the 2022 elections, but, all depends on who's on the other side.

That’s why considering divisions across all spectrums, you don’t need to totally unite the field, you just need to get more votes than the other options. It would be a mistake to equal these local elections with mostly local municipal discussions exactly with the national scenario. They indicate similar trends, but they don’t show the exact same picture.

PT is very divisive party nowadays but they can very well still win just by retaining a portion of their 2018 vote (29% in 1st round isn’t to be ignored) and then riding on hopefully anti-Bolsonaro sentiment being stronger than anti-PT one.

Center-right just needs to pick one single candidate to not divide their vote and play strong opposition to Bolsonaro to make him lose more support. Most of these people would go for them even if not necessarily all. Then they get 2nd place, go to the runoff and most likely easily win.

Ciro can win if he plays to the center while keeping one foot in the left and if he manages to appeal to people in the left sense of pragmatism. The more passionate PT voters would never support him anyway. He has the hardest path though because it would need him to have a great compelling campaign that wins over votes and not just naturally inherits it like PT and center-right will do. The votes he can inherit either from PT’s “desidatração” or from other sectors is limited to around 5% in the more pessimistic scenario (with no broad front union).

Why is PT so divisive these days?

[DC Al Fine]

Why did Progressistas do so well?