Brazil Municipal Elections (November 15th, November 29th, 2020) (user search)
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  Brazil Municipal Elections (November 15th, November 29th, 2020) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Brazil Municipal Elections (November 15th, November 29th, 2020)  (Read 17112 times)
Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!
ModernBourbon Democrat
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« on: November 16, 2020, 09:30:27 PM »

One question regarding NOVO, what happened to that party? I remember they were pretty popular within Faria Lima circles (a negative signal for me) but I lost track on them.

In terms of performance they picked up some city council seats and had a few good performances like the top voted councilor in Curitiba but otherwise they didn't get into any mayoral runoffs as far as I know and generally underperformed.

The party has a lot of internal tensions. For some reason the leadership ie. Amoędo decided to heavily micromanage candidate selection, imposed arbitrarily high criteria (you had to be extremely wealthy among other things) and overruled local chapters on the issue. Maybe the goal was to avoid any bozos discrediting the party to the rich people they're so desperate to attract but instead it reduced their enthusiasm pretty drastically.

At risk of generalizing, there are three main currents within Novo. The first is the faction most dominant among the leadership and the central party and could be broadly described as "neoliberal". They talk a lot about "efficiency" and heavily emphasize how little government money they use but aren't particularly ideological. Personally I think these guys would lead Novo to a political dead end like the FDP in Germany, because once you've maxed out on the economically right leaning rich people you've got maybe 10% of the vote and zero appeal anywhere else. They bring a lot of money and highly paid professionals to the party but not much else.

Next would be the supporters of Romeu Zema, the governor of Minas and by far the highest elected official in the party. Zema basically rode Bolsonaro's coattails into the governorship and has generally taken a much more favourable position towards him than Amoędo. He definitely still has a libertarian/economic liberal streak but he's generally been pragmatic in walking the line between supporting Bolsonaro enough to keep that base while pushing his own policies enough to define himself so his prospects aren't totally tied to him.

Last are the ideological libertarians and economic liberals who compose a measurable portion of elected officials (eg. 2 of their 8 deputies are explicit anarcho-capitalists) as well as a significant portion of the activists and local parties but who lack power within the central party. Naturally they have tension with the "neoliberals" since the latter disqualified a bunch of their candidates on the basis of "insufficient qualification" (it turns out that despite the stereotypes there isn't much correlation between ideological libertarianism and being a tycoon). If they managed to take control they'd basically be inverse-PSoL, but frankly even being inverse-PSoL has better political prospects than whatever the current leadership is aiming for since at least they could conceivably consolidate the "hardcore economic liberal" vote that's been split over a half dozen parties.

On that note, it's hard to say due to that last factor but it looks like economic liberals outside of Novo generally improved. MBL, which was supposed to collapse after going hard against Bolsonaro fairly early on but actually improved in their existing seats and picked up several new ones along the way, something that has led to much wailing and teeth gnashing among the Bolsominions. Maybe the most surprising result of the night for me was
Mamăe Falei pulling almost 10% in SP and very nearly passing Russomano. Imagine someone like Joey Salads getting 10% of the vote to be mayor of New York and you'll understand what a surprising result this is, especially considering Russomanno had the support of the sitting president and widespread media coverage whereas Do Val's campaign basically didn't exist in any media besides the internet.

Besides that, the general trends of the election appear to be that explicitly ideological parties mostly gained at the expense of non/less ideological counterparts (eg. PSoL over PT and PAT/PSC/REP over PSDB) and the left marginally underperformed their poll numbers while the right marginally overperformed.
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Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!
ModernBourbon Democrat
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Posts: 2,303


« Reply #1 on: November 18, 2020, 03:51:13 PM »

An excellent breakdown of the results and changes from 2016.

Mayors:

DEM +191
PP +186
PSD +111
REP + 103
AVAN +67
PODE +66
PSL +60
PL +44
PATRI +35
SD +32
PSC +28
CIDA +17
PSOL +2
REDE -1
PRTB -3
PMB -3
DC -7
PROS -11
PTC -15
PMN -16
PDT -23
PCdoB -35
PTB -44
PV -54
PT -75
PSB -157
MDB -271
PSDB -287

Councillors:

PP +1589
DEM +1414
PSD +1010
REP +961
PODE +755
AVAN +557
PL +443
PSL +321
PATRI +197
PSOL +31
NOVO +25
PCB -1
PSC -27
REDE -36
CIDA -103
SD -103
PT -157
PMB -170
PRTB -173
PROS -238
MDB -251
DC -298
PCdoB -318
PMNN -330
PDT -337
PTC -354
PTB -600
PSB -630
PV -718
PSDB -996

Old parties with old names were massacred by old parties with new names.

Especially on the right, PSDB was massacred first by PSDB knockoffs, then by the evangelical and pro-Bolsonaro parties, then by anti-systemic right wing parties. On that note, I'm pretty surprised PSL did so well after Bolsonaro left. Apparently the anti-systemic right is less tied to his personality than people thought. Hard to say how well Bolsonaro supporters did among that group though, since parties like Patriota had both some of his biggest fans and detractors too like the MBL.

The only party left of center to win big was Avante, showing that not only is there demand for PSDB with fresh paint but there's also demand for PT/PDT knockoffs too. I guess PSoL came out ahead too particularly in SP but then again I thought Novo ran a pretty sclerotic campaign and they ended up somehow picking up a similar number of new councilors. I was also wrong that Novo didn't make any runoffs; apparently they managed a close second in Joinville.
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Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!
ModernBourbon Democrat
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« Reply #2 on: November 21, 2020, 03:43:47 AM »

Partido Novo (New Party) was created by top CEOs of banks. This party supports free-market economy, small government, thatcherist economics, Chicago economics. Novo is neutral in issues like LGBT, abortion and cannabis: this neutrality was supposed to please both groups of the right, but actually this neutrality bother the two groups, the social conservatives and the "social liberal economic conservatives".
Novo did worse in 2020 than in 2016 and 2018 because there was an internal disagreement between the two wings: the pro-Bolsonaro wing and the wing who supports only his economic policies but has some criticism in other policies.
Sometimes, Novo voters are known as the upper class bolsonaristas, the bolsonaristas who wear polo shirts.

Some people who support free-market economy, small government but also support legalization of abortion and legalization of cannabis are trying to collect enough signatures in order to create another party: "Livres"

Yup. In the long term, it is a terrible decision for NOVO to not have a clear set of standards in regards to social issues. Sends a murky message to their base. They’re basically a mix of a wide spectrum of different people united under the economic message of minimizing the State.

I think they originally were supposed to be this economic right wing but socially liberal party by the people who created it but they also wanted to sail in the Bolsonaro conservative wave in order to grow fast and that meant lots of members openly embracing Bolsonaro social agenda. While leadership ignored it and acted fine with it, which represented a silent support.

It was kinda good for them in 2018 to get Minas governor without a major structure but the NOVO party base is in big cities elites and universities, just like PSOL but on the opposite side of economics. And a lot of that voting potential base leans socially progressive.

I think the silent association with Bolsonaro that they constructed since 2018 will backfire now that cities become more tired of the president and that social issues are currently gaining more protagonism. I know people in university who were really excited about them but the association to Bolsonaro social agenda that lots of NOVO members have (Minas Governor included) turned them away from it recently.

This type of anti-Bolsonaro voter who might’ve been friendly to NOVO is an important base that they’ve just lost for the future in sight. Especially if “Livres” ever gets off the ground and provides this REAL option of a right wing party that is socially progressive, then NOVO will be history.

That said, it’s harder to naturally incorporate socially progressive views when your origin is basically rich white bankers and entrepreneurs who just don’t give a damn about that stuff, only maximizing profits lmao. That is 100% reflected by the party’s ambiguous positions in the social matters.

If Novo went the way of Zema and hedged its support of Bolsonaro less it might be in a good position to pick up the secular supporters of Bolsonaro whenever he leaves office. Of course it would sacrifice a lot of those upper crust supporters in the city and it probably wouldn't be competitive in Joinville but at least it would be a party that could compete reasonably well among people that aren't tycoons. Walking the middle path ends up leaving neither side happy (though Zema's approval is high enough that he's got pretty good odds of hanging on next time).

Livres kind of illustrates a repeating principle in Brazilian politics: rather than make a new party, everyone just takes over a preexisting one. First Livres tried to take over PSL, then Bolsonaro took over and caused PSL to leave, then Bolsonaro left when the founder wouldn't hand over the keys to the treasury and through some bizarre dark magic PSL somehow won a ton of new mayors and councilors (maybe some people forgot he'd left)? One wonders whether the reason Novo runs such a bloodless campaign is to avoid offending the half dozen billionaires it takes to pay all the lawyers enough to get a party officially certified.
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Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!
ModernBourbon Democrat
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Posts: 2,303


« Reply #3 on: November 23, 2020, 07:08:47 PM »

In the one bright spot for Novo it looks like they'll probably win the  mayorship of Joinville in the second round:

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Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!
ModernBourbon Democrat
Sr. Member
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Posts: 2,303


« Reply #4 on: November 29, 2020, 05:27:20 PM »

Novo ended up winning in Joinville after all.

Otherwise, it looks like polls consistently overestimated leftist candidates against centrists again by around 5% and against the far right more than that (eg. in Fortaleza and Belem the pro-Bolsonaro candidates made predicated blowout races extremely close). No idea what the cause of that is.
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