Brazil Municipal Elections (November 15th, November 29th, 2020)

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Ibope Polls today

São Paulo: Bruno Covas 48%, Guilherme Boulos 37%
Rio de Janeiro: Eduardo Paes 53%, Marcelo Crivella 28%
Recife: João Campos 43%, Marilia Arraes 41%

It seems that Covas will win the second round. It could be close, at maximum like the 2018 São Paulo gubernatorial race, but he's likely to be reelected.

In Recife, the dynasty will continue, probably.

In São Paulo, the gap is decreasing, it will be very close. The good news for Covas is that Boulos is growing at the expense of non-voters and not Covas' voters. Covas is stable near 50%.
In Recife, the dynasty will continue no matter who win. Arraes and Campos are second degree cousins. Marília Arraes is Miguel Arraes's granddaughter. João Campos is Miguel Arraes's great grandson.

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Using the data downloaded from the TSE website, it was possible to calculate the results of the election for mayor (1st round) and vereador in Rio de Janeiro in 2 parts of the city: middle/upper income neighborhoods (Southern Zone, Tijuca, Maracanã, Barra, Recreio) and lower income neighborhoods (Northern Zone excluding Tijuca and Maracanã, Western Zone excluding Barra and Recreio).

Mayor

Middle/upper income (663,108 valid votes)
Eduardo Paes (DEM): 40,84%
Benedita da Silva (PT): 13,61%
Martha Rocha (PDT): 13,60%
Marcelo Crivella (Rep): 13,31%
Luiz Lima (PSL): 6,55%
Renata Souza (PSOL): 4,16%
Fred Luís (Novo): 3,50%
Bandeira de Melo (Rede): 2,15%
Paulo Messina (MDB): 1,64%
Glória Heloiza (PSC): 0,30%
Clarissa Garotinho (PROS): 0,15%
Cyro Garcia (PSTU): 0,11%
Sued Haidar (PMB): 0,07%

Lower income (1.970.214 valid votes)
Eduardo Paes (DEM): 35,73%
Marcelo Crivella (Rep): 24,80%
Martha Rocha (PDT): 10,54%
Benedita da Silva (PT): 10,49%
Luiz Lima (PSL): 6,95%
Paulo Messina (MDB): 3,36%
Renata Souza (PSOL): 2,93%
Bandeira de Melo (Rede): 2,59%
Glória Heloiza (PSC): 0,60%
Clarissa Garotinho (PROS): 0,57%
Sued Haidar (PMB): 0,07%
Cyro Garcia (PSTU): 0,12%

Vereador

Middle/upper income (632.925 valid votes)
AVANTE: 2,92%
CIDADANIA: 5,53%
DC: 0,86%
DEM: 11,12%
MDB: 1,00%
NOVO: 7,54%
PATRIOTA: 1,32%
PC do B: 1,27%
PCB: 0,17%
PDT: 1,78%
PL: 3,02%
PMB: 0,44%
PMN: 1,21%
PODE: 2,44%
PP: 2,90%
PROS: 0,42%
PRTB: 0,69%
PSB: 2,14%
PSC: 3,22%
PSD: 3,24%
PSDB: 0,97%
PSL: 2,41%
PSOL: 20,16%
PSTU: 0,07%
PT: 6,78%
PTB: 2,06%
PTC: 1,70%
PV: 0,31%
REDE: 0,89%
REPUBLICANOS: 9,79%
SOLIDARIEDADE: 1,46%
UP: 0,17%

Lower income (1,958,530 valid votes)
AVANTE: 4,99%
CIDADANIA: 3,34%
DC: 2,78%
DEM: 10,38%
MDB: 2,16%
NOVO: 1,36%
PATRIOTA: 3,04%
PC do B: 0,97%
PCB: 0,12%
PDT: 2,61%
PL: 4,65%
PMB: 1,26%
PMN: 3,32%
PODE: 2,27%
PP: 4,81%
PROS: 2,24%
PRTB: 1,67%
PSB: 1,14%
PSC: 4,06%
PSD: 5,22%
PSDB: 0,67%
PSL: 2,64%
PSOL: 8,25%
PSTU: 0,05%
PT: 3,79%
PTB: 3,69%
PTC: 2,52%
PV: 0,23%
REDE: 0,48%
REPUBLICANOS: 11,75%
SOLIDARIEDADE: 3,43%
UP: 0,14%

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Crivella is nasty. Not because he is religious, but because of the use of his evangelic church in the politics and because his prejudiced views on LGBT people and african religions. He was Lula's ally during some years, and some leftists believed Crivella could be an ally and that he was more moderate than other evangelic leaders, like Silas Malafaia. They were wrong. Crivella's natural ally is Bolsonaro, and not Lula
Here we can see a scene of the campaign of the 2010 presidential election: Marcelo Crivella (running for the senate), Eduardo Paes (mayor of Rio de Janeiro at that time), Lindberg (running for the senate), Sérgio Cabral (governor of Rio de Janeiro at that time), Luís Inácio Lula da Silva and Dilma Rousseff on a truck in Dilma's campaign https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QLVr4RHiAI8

Crivella tried to relate Eduardo Paes to PSOL. Since there were 25% of the votes for the left in the first round, this is not an inteligent strategy to have these votes. Maybe, he is trying to change the opinion of people who voted for Paes in the first round. But it is very hard.
Actually, I think that since Crivella is sure he will loose, he is trying just to appeal to very conservative voters in order to run for the Senate or for the House in 2022. In the election for the Senate, there is no runoff.

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Guilherme Boulos had a positive covid diagnosis. So, TV Globo cancelled the debate which would have taken place yesterday. Boulos's campaign proposed an online debate, but Globo did not accept.
The problem related to the debate is about the mediator and the staff. Bruno Covas had already covid and he has immunity.

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Marília Arraes and João Campos are cousins and they are only running a dirty campaign.
Kaiser Wilhelm were cousin of George V and Nicholas II and they did a very bloody war.

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Last Datafolha polls

São Paulo: Bruno Covas 48%, Guilherme Boulos 39%
Rio de Janeiro: Eduardo Paes 55%, Marcelo Crivella 26%
Recife: João Campos 42%, Marília Arraes 42%

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Ibope polls today, considering all the votes. I prefer to use the percentages considering all the votes so that we have an idea about the number of votes which can change in the last hours

São Paulo: Bruno Covas 48%, Guilherme Boulos 36%
Rio de Janeiro: Eduardo Paes 54%, Marcelo Crivella 26%
Recife: João Campos 42%, Marília Arraes 42%
Porto Alegre: Manuela Davila 45%, Sebastião Melo 43%
Fortaleza: Sarto 54%, Capitão Wagner 35%
Belém: Edmílson Rodrigues 51%, Delegado Eguchi 37%
Goiânia: Maguito Vilela 51%, Vanderlan Cardoso 35%
Vitória: Delegado Pazolini 46%, João Coser 46%
Campinas: Dário Saadi 40%, Rafa Zimbaldi 33%

If Edmílson win in Belém, PSOL will have its biggest victory in elections for the executive branch in its 15 year history. Edmílson was lucky because his opponent Eguchi is pro-Bolsonaro, and the center-right votes in the runoff are split. If his opponent were the center-right candidate Priante, it would be much harder for Edmílson.

In Recife, if Marilia and João tie, Marilia wins. According to Brazilian law, if the election is tied, the oldest candidate win. Marilia is 36 and João is 26. But of course, the probability of a tie is very low.

I think the growth trend of Boulos stopped because of the covid diagnosis. The right had the opportunity to portray him as an hypocritical, because Boulos criticized Bolsonaro's attitude related to covid. This is unfair, because since Boulos had the diagnosis, he stopped all his activities, unlike Bolsonaro.

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I think it is Professor Carlos Vaz, the PSOL candidate in Pará in 2018 who had the second biggest number of votes https://politica.estadao.com.br/eleicoes/2018/candidatos/pa/deputado-federal/professor-carlos-vaz,5011

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In the precint I worked, Eduardo Paes had 150 votes, Marcelo Crivella had 31

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Edmílson's (PSOL) victory in Belém is confirmed

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Since 2014, the polls on the eve of the election day underestimate the right. This problem happened in 2014, 2016, 2018 and 2020. We don't know the real motives, but there are some hyphothesis:
1) Evangelic churches and Whatsapp messages influencing the voters in the last hour
2) Wrong methodologies of the poll
3) Silent conservative voters
4) All of them

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Now, 100% of the precints were proceeded. We can analyse the maps.

In Rio de Janeiro, Eduardo Paes had 64% and won all the zones. He had >80% in the middle/upper income neighborhoods in the south of the city. On the other side, some zones in the low income neighborhoods in the west were very close. His margin in the whole city was not even bigger because of the low turnout in the south.
The highest performance of Eduardo Paes took place at Z17, in which there are the richest neighborhoods of the city: Ipanema and Leblon. He had 84.91% there. In the most left-wing zone of the city, Z16, Paes had 82.46%. This zone includes the neighborhoods of Laranjeiras, Catete and Glória. These are wealthy neighborhoods, but not as rich as Ipanema and Leblon. According to these results, it is possible to estimate that not 100% of the left voted for Paes. A small share of the left abstained.
https://especiaisg1.globo/rj/rio-de-janeiro/eleicoes/2020/mapas/apuracao-zona-eleitoral-prefeito/rio-de-janeiro/2-turno/

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In São Paulo, Bruno Covas had 59.4% in the whole city. He performed better in the middle/upper income neighborhoods in the Mesopotamia (the wealthy part of the city, located between the rivers Tietê and Pinheiros). Boulos won some zones in the low income neighborhoods in the extreme south and extreme east. In the 1st round, Boulos performed better in the middle/upper income neighborhoods too, but in the 2nd round he performed better in the low income neighborhoods because he received Tatto's votes.
Although this rich-poor gap exists, it was bigger in the past. Boulos had the 3rd best result of a leftist candidate in the Mesopotamia. Only Marta 2000 (when she ran for mayor) and Lula 2002 (when he ran for president) did better there. When Fernando Haddad (PT) was elected mayor in 2012, he did worse in the Mesopotamia than Boulos did in 2020. The difference is that Haddad had >70% in the poor neighborhoods in the extreme south and east, where Boulos had narrow wins or even narrow losses.
https://especiaisg1.globo/sp/sao-paulo/eleicoes/2020/mapas/apuracao-zona-eleitoral-prefeito/sao-paulo/2-turno/

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In the Datafolha poll published in the eve of the runoff in 2018, Bolsonaro had 54%, Haddad had 46%. In the Ibope poll, Bolsonaro had 53%, Haddad had 47%. The result was Bolsonaro 55%, Haddad 45%

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Another issue important to mention: Crivella had 36% in the runoff despite being a horrible mayor. We should remember that in 2022 each state will elect only one senator. The election for the senate has no runoff. The vote for the left should not split.

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The results of the 2020 Municipal Elections in Brazil were very bad for all the left

PT: 2016 was already a disaster and PT didn't recover. PT had some small gains in the election for vereador in the big cities, had some small gains in the election for mayor in the big cities but not enough to win. It was the first time in the history of the party that it lost all the 26 state capitals. Besides, PT lost many mayors and vereadores in small towns in the Northeast. I don't consider Tatto's performance in São Paulo a disaster of the party because PT candidate de facto in São Paulo was Boulos.

PCdoB: in 2016, PCdoB elected a lot of mayors and vereadores in the countryside of the state of Maranhão, which is under administration of the PCdoB governor Flávio Dino. In 2020, the party lost all of them. Dino was supporting a candidate in São Luís who is not from the PCdoB and he lost. The party was competitive only in Porto Alegre, but Manuela had a narrow defeat. PCdoB had zero vereadores in many big cities.

PSOL: The biggest victory was Belém. The party also elected 4 mayors in small towns. Besides these exceptions, PSOL continued being only a party for the legislative branch. Freixo declined to run in Rio de Janeiro. Raul Marcelo used to be competitive in Sorocaba, but he performed very bad this year. Guilherme Boulos became a famous national leader, but 40% in São Paulo is no more than the usual perfomance of the left in the city.

PSB/PDT: Ciro Gomes coalition didn't perform well outside the Northeast. Martha Rocha, Marcio França, Gouro and Juliana Brizola were not competitive. The most important victory of PDT outside the Northeast was Niteroi. In the runoff in Fortaleza, Sarto was supported by PDT, PSB, PT, PSOL, PCdoB and PSDB and had a narrow win against a pro-Bolsonaro police officer.

Rede: disapeared

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A further observation about the Ibope polls:

The results of the vote on November 29th were almost the same Ibope was predicting one week before. Narrow Edmílson's win, not so narrow Campos's, Pazolini's and Sebastião's win. The polls published on the eve were wrong: safe Edmílson's win, tie between Campos and Arraes, Pazolini and Coser, Sebastião and Manuela. Ibope showed a left surge in the last week that didn't happen.

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Progressistas is the Arena, the party that backed the military regime between 1965 and 1979 and changed the name many times. It was always strong in rural areas, even after the redemocratization. Progressistas was Bolsonaro's party between 1990 and 2014.
Progressistas did well in 2020 like many other non-Bolsonaro right-wing parties.

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On January 1st, there was the inauguration of the mayors and vereadores elected on November 15th and November 29th. The elections, scheduled to take place on October 4th and October 25th, were re-scheduled because of the pandemic. The inauguration was not rescheduled. So, we had only one month of lame duck. In normal times, we have two month lame duck period. One month is more than enough.

The mayors in Brazil were elected after Joe Biden and their inauguration took place before.