Brazil Municipal Elections (November 15th, November 29th, 2020)

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes. According to the polls, Eduardo Paes would have a huge margin against Crivella in the runoff. But since Crivella is a horrible mayor endorsed by a horrible president, it would be disgusting see him in the runoff.

Doesn’t matter who wins anyway, Bolsonaro just hinted possibility of entering war against US (“Diplomacy is not always enough, we need powder”) because of Biden’s claims about the Amazon. Crivella or Paes elected mayor we’ll be dead in the next year on the same way lmao

That's the spirit

[buritobr]

Datafolha polls today

Rio de Janeiro

Eduardo Paes (DEM): 34%
Crivella (Republicanos): 14%
Martha Rocha (PDT): 11%
Benedita da Silva (PT): 8%
Luiz Lima (PSL): 5%
Renata Souza (PSOL): 4%
Bandeira de Mello (Rede): 2%
Paulo Messina (MDB): 2%
Clarissa Garotinho (Pros): 1%
Fred Luz (Novo): 1%
Glória Heloiza (PSC): 1%

runoff
Eduardo Paes 58% x 22% Crivella (branco/nulo: 20%; não sabe: 1%)
Eduardo Paes 46% x 35% Martha Rocha (branco/nulo: 17%; não sabe: 1%)
Eduardo Paes 50% x 27% Benedita da Silva (branco/nulo: 22%; não sabe: 1%)

Recife
João Campos (PSB): 29%
Marília Arraes (PT): 22%
Mendonça Filho (DEM): 18%
Delegada Patrícia (Podemos): 15%
Carlos (PSL): 2%
Coronel Feitosa (PSC): 1%

Belo Horizonte
Kalil (PSD): 63%
João Vitor Xavier (Cidadania): 8%
Áurea Carolina (Psol): 6%
Bruno Engler (PRTB): 4%
Nilmário Miranda (PT): 2%
Rodrigo Paiva (Novo): 2%
Luisa Barreto (PSDB): 1%
Professor Wendel (Solidariedade): 1%
Lafayette Andrada (Republicanos): 1%
Marília Domingues (PCO): 1%

[buritobr]

Datafolha São Paulo yesterday

Bruno Covas (PSDB): 32%
Guilherme Boulos (PSOL): 16%
Celso Russomanno (Republicanos): 14%
Márcio França (PSB): 12%
Arthur do Val - Mamãe Falei (Patriota): 4%
Jilmar Tatto (PT): 4%
Joice Hasselmann (PSL): 3%
Andrea Matarazzo (PSD): 2%
Marina Helou (Rede): 1%
Vera Lúcia (PSTU): 1%
Nenhum/branco/nulo: 7%
Não sabe: 3%

runoff
Bruno Covas 59% x 25% Celso Russomanno (branco/nulo: 15%; não sabe: 1%)
Bruno Covas 56% x 30% Guilherme Boulos (branco/nulo: 12%; não sabe: 2%)
Bruno Covas 53% x 34% Márcio França (branco/nulo: 11%; não sabe: 3%)

[buritobr]

My vote tommorow in Rio de Janeiro

Mayor: Benedita da Silva 13
"Vereador": Luciana Boiteux 50180

[Red Velvet]

My vote tommorow in Rio de Janeiro

Mayor: Benedita da Silva 13
"Vereador": Luciana Boiteux 50180

Cool. Mine in Rio:

Prefeita: Martha Rocha 12 (PDT)
Vereador: Paulo Pinheiro 50111 (PSOL)

For city council I try to pick someone I like that I think that will be on fringe of making it and this year without a big profile name like Freixo running for mayor, I worry that maybe PSOL numbers will decrease, so I chose to play it a bit safer. Also big names running this time

In the last election in 2016, PSOL got 6 seats and Paulo got 4th in the party, so I chose him. Wanted to prioritize the health topic this year. Was between him and Luciana Boiteux, who I also think has good chances but is far from “safe” like Tarcísio Motta, Chico Alencar and the widow of Marielle Franco, Monica Benício.

In 2018 I remember picking options that barely “made it” for Deputado Estadual and Federal. If only I had some of the same luck on the higher positions... It was:

Deputado Estadual: Dani Monteiro (PSOL) - was 4th of the party, which got 4 seats
Deputado Federal: David Miranda (PSOL) - was barely out but managed to enter congress after replacing Jean, who moved out of Brazil
Senador: Chico Alencar (PSOL) and Lindbergh (PT) - both failed
Governador: Tarcísio Motta (PSOL) - didn’t make to the runoff
Presidente: Ciro Gomes (PDT) - didn’t make to the runoff

[buritobr]

Roger Waters is endorsing Monica Benicio 50333, Marielle Franco's widow. He recorded a video.
Roger Waters is not only a great musician. He is a great person.
https://twitter.com/monica_benicio/status/1327404807502655491

Yeah, it's dangerous that PSOL does not so well in the election for the legislative branch, since there was no strong candidate for mayor

[Mike88]

Polls close at 5pm there, right? And unlike the Presidential elections, results will be released as polls close, right?

[buritobr]

Yes. Polls close at 5pm and the results come soon. But I will post here only in the evening. I was drafted to work in the poll (mesário) in the precint I vote. So, it is my task to collect signatures, check voter's ID, type the voter's numbers in the machine so that they can vote, organize the line in order to observe safe distance, take the disk storage of the machine after the closing time. I will need some masks to chance in every 4 hour. When I come home, I post here and comment the results.

[Mike88]

Yes. Polls close at 5pm and the results come soon. But I will post here only in the evening. I was drafted to work in the poll (mesário) in the precint I vote. So, it is my task to collect signatures, check voter's ID, type the voter's numbers in the machine so that they can vote, organize the line in order to observe safe distance, take the disk storage of the machine after the closing time. I will need some masks to chance in every 4 hour. When I come home, I post here and comment the results.

Right. I will also follow the results tomorrow. I'm curious to see, as Bolsonaro allies are almost certain to perform very badly, how will the former main parties, PSDB, PT and MDB, perform in the elections.

[Red Velvet]

Yes. Polls close at 5pm and the results come soon. But I will post here only in the evening. I was drafted to work in the poll (mesário) in the precint I vote. So, it is my task to collect signatures, check voter's ID, type the voter's numbers in the machine so that they can vote, organize the line in order to observe safe distance, take the disk storage of the machine after the closing time. I will need some masks to chance in every 4 hour. When I come home, I post here and comment the results.

Right. I will also follow the results tomorrow. I'm curious to see, as Bolsonaro allies are almost certain to perform very badly, how will the former main parties, PSDB, PT and MDB, perform in the elections.

Both Bolsonaro allies and PT candidates are expected to perform bad, at least on the capitals, which tend to have more influence. Only PT candidate expected to go to runoff in capitals is in Recife and they’re 2nd place. With Bolsonaro allies they could go to the runoff in around 3 capitals and in less populated states. There are 26 states in total.

In all municipalities we don’t know what to expect but probable that they will perform better than in the capitals.

For MDB and PSDB I don’t expect significant changes from 2016. Even PT won’t change much since they already fell a lot in 2016 (but at least then they won one capital: Rio Branco).

But there’s a pre-consensus that this will favor more “center” candidates, not the Bolsonaro extreme right and also not the PT left. Even if the Bolsonarismo energy from 2018 got significantly down, PT is still very rejected as a party.

Some other left and center-left options may succeed though. I don’t think Boulos wins against Covas in the São Paulo runoff, but Manuela from the Communist Party could win in Porto Alegre; PSOL is set to win in Belém, PSB/PDT alliance can be very fruitful in northeast cities like Recife, Fortaleza and Aracaju (could’ve been in Rio too but Eduardo Paes will be strong).

[buritobr]

If you don't consider the catastrophic year of 2016, the worst year for the left in Brazil in municipal elections was 1996. PT won only two state capitals: Edmílson Rodrigues was elected mayor of Belém and Raul Pont was elected mayor of Porto Alegre.

If you restrict the left to PT, PSOL and PCdoB and exclude PDT, PSB and REDE from the left, in 2020 can win only in Belém and Porto Alegre again. The same Edmílson Rodrigues, now in PSOL, has a huge lead in the polls. And Manuela (PCdoB) is leading the polls in Porto Alegre.

[buritobr]

Datafolha last polls

São Paulo
Bruno Covas (PSDB): 37%
Guilherme Boulos (PSOL): 17%
Márcio França (PSB): 14%
Celso Russomanno (Republicanos): 13%
Arthur do Val - Mamãe Falei (Patriota): 6%
Jilmar Tatto (PT): 6%
Joice Hasselmann (PSL): 3%
Andrea Matarazzo (PSD): 2%
Marina Helou (Rede): 1%
Vera Lúcia (PSTU): 1%
Orlando Silva (PCdoB): 1%

Runoff
Bruno Covas 57% x 30% Guilherme Boulos (branco/nulo: 12%; não sabe: 2%)
Bruno Covas 51% x 36% Márcio França (branco/nulo: 11%; não sabe: 2%)
Bruno Covas 63% x 21% Celso Russomanno (branco/nulo: 14%; não sabe: 2%)

Rio de Janeiro

Eduardo Paes (DEM): 40%
Crivella (Republicanos): 18%
Martha Rocha (PDT): 13%
Benedita da Silva (PT): 10%
Luiz Lima (PSL): 6%
Renata Souza (PSOL): 5%
Paulo Messina (MDB): 3%
Bandeira de Mello (Rede): 2%
Clarissa Garotinho (Pros): 1%
Fred Luz (Novo): 1%
Glória Heloiza (PSC): 1%

runoff
Eduardo Paes 57% x 22% Crivella (branco/nulo: 20%; não sabe: 1%)
Eduardo Paes 46% x 33% Martha Rocha (branco/nulo: 19%; não sabe: 2%)
Eduardo Paes 49% x 26% Benedita da Silva (branco/nulo: 24%; não sabe: 1%)

Belo Horizonte
Kalil (PSD): 69%
João Vitor Xavier (Cidadania): 11%
Bruno Engler (PRTB): 6%
Áurea Carolina (Psol): 6%
Nilmário Miranda (PT): 2%
Rodrigo Paiva (Novo): 2%
Luisa Barreto (PSDB): 1%
Professor Wendel Mesquita (Solidariedade): 1%
Lafayette Andrada (Republicanos): 1%

Recife
João Campos (PSB): 34%
Marília Arraes (PT): 25%
Mendonça Filho (DEM): 23%
Delegada Patrícia (Podemos): 13%
Carlos (PSL): 2%
Coronel Feitosa (PSC): 2%
Marco Aurélio Meu Amigo (PRTB): 1%
Charbel (Novo): 1%

Salvador
Bruno Reis (DEM): 66%
Major Denice (PT): 17%
Pastor Sargento Isidório (Avante): 6%
Olívia Santana (PC do B): 4%
Bacelar (Podemos): 3%
Cézar Leite (PRTB): 2%
Hilton Coelho (PSOL): 1%

[Red Velvet]

If you don't consider the catastrophic year of 2016, the worst year for the left in Brazil in municipal elections was 1996. PT won only two state capitals: Edmílson Rodrigues was elected mayor of Belém and Raul Pont was elected mayor of Porto Alegre.

If you restrict the left to PT, PSOL and PCdoB and exclude PDT, PSB and REDE from the left, in 2020 can win only in Belém and Porto Alegre again. The same Edmílson Rodrigues, now in PSOL, has a huge lead in the polls. And Manuela (PCdoB) is leading the polls in Porto Alegre.

I think this isolation and separatism is a mistake though, kinda like when some PSOL purist voters call PT a “fake left” that has one leftist discourse during elections but go conservative while in government.

Especially in these times of extremism, which require more pragmatism. PT is weak, with large rejection rates and will stay that way unless it renovates itself with newer younger leaderships, which will naturally take time even if they go that route.

Any “left” will only win nowadays with an united broad front that includes all from PSOL, PDT, PT, PSB, REDE, PCdoB, etc. Even if Bolsonaro could be weaker, there are strong alternatives that can be substitutes just as bad as him, which is the case of a Doria or Huck/VP Moro alliance. And in the scenario where Bolsonaro is ineligible due to his crimes, these people will unfortunately be the favorites, especially if the different parties of the left keep disputing between themselves.

[buritobr]

Last Ibope Polls

São Paulo
Bruno Covas (PSDB): 38%
Guilherme Boulos (PSOL): 16%
Celso Russomanno (Republicanos): 13%
Márcio França (PSB): 13%
Arthur do Val - Mamãe Falei (Patriota): 7%
Jilmar Tatto (PT): 6%
Joice Hasselmann (PSL): 3%
Andrea Matarazzo (PSD): 2%
Levy Fidelix (PRTB): 1%
Marina Helou (Rede): 1%

Rio de Janeiro
Eduardo Paes (DEM): 41%
Crivella (Republicanos): 16%
Benedita da Silva (PT): 13%
Delegada Martha Rocha (PDT): 11%
Luiz Lima (PSL): 7%
Bandeira de Mello (Rede): 3%
Renata Souza (PSOL): 3%
Paulo Messina (MDB): 3%
Fred Luz (Novo): 2%
Clarissa Garotinho (Pros): 1%

Porto Alegre
Eduardo Paes (DEM): 41%
Crivella (Republicanos): 16%
Benedita da Silva (PT): 13%
Delegada Martha Rocha (PDT): 11%
Luiz Lima (PSL): 7%
Bandeira de Mello (Rede): 3%
Renata Souza (PSOL): 3%
Paulo Messina (MDB): 3%
Fred Luz (Novo): 2%
Clarissa Garotinho (Pros): 1%

Florianópolis
Gean Loureiro (DEM): 62%
Professor Elson (PSOL): 16%
Pedrão (PL): 10%
Angela Amin (PP): 9%
Alexander Brasil (PRTB): 1%
Dr. Ricardo (Solidariedade): 1%
Helio Bairros (Patriota): 1%
Orlando (Novo): 1%

Curitiba
Rafael Greca (DEM): 56%
Goura (PDT): 11%
Fernando Francischini (PSL): 8%
João Arruda (MDB): 5%
Christiane Yared (PL): 4%
Carol Arns (Podemos): 4%
Dr. João Guilherme (Novo): 3%
Professor Mocellin (PV): 2%
Paulo Opuszka (PT): 2%
Marisa Lobo (Avante): 1%
Zé Boni (PTC): 1%
Letícia Lanz (PSOL): 1%

Campinas
Rafa Zimbaldi (PL): 28%
Dário Saadi (Republicanos): 27%
Pedro Tourinho (PT): 18%
Artur Orsi (PSD): 9%
Dr. Hélio (PDT): 5%
Delegada Teresinha (PTB): 4%
Alessandra Ribeiro (PCdoB): 3%
Wilson Matos (Patriota): 3%
André von Zuben (Cidadania): 1%
Rogério Menezes (PV): 1%
Laura Leal (PSTU): 1%
Prof. Ahmed Tarique Agio (PMN): 1%

[Mike88]

Could we a see a surprise win already on the 1st round for Covas and Paes? The trend is favoring that possibility.

[buritobr]

Could we a see a surprise win already on the 1st round for Covas and Paes? The trend is favoring that possibility.

In Rio de Janeiro, it is hard. In São Paulo, it is possible. The right-wing voters of Russomano, Mamãefalei and Joyce might move their votes to Bruno Covas in order to avoid the runoff. If there is runoff, both candidates will have daily 10 minutes of TV time. The right would not like Boulos to have 10 minutes daily TV time.

[Red Velvet]

Could we a see a surprise win already on the 1st round for Covas and Paes? The trend is favoring that possibility.

I think it’s unlikely but it’s certainly possible. I think it will be closer than these numbers show though. Both are on an upward swing and those are even more important than the numbers, indicating that the trend is for them to grow more with people who decide their vote on Election Day.

“Boca de Urna” polls on Election Day sometimes show these final trends becoming even stronger than the last poll. So it bodes well for Paes and Covas even if it’s uncertain how strong the trend will keep.

In 2018, I remember final presidential polls indicating something like 40%-41% of valid votes to Bolsonaro. Kinda similar to what these polls show regarding Eduardo Paes. He ended up between 46%-47%, just barely missing out an outright victory against Haddad.

Personally, the only good argument for an Eduardo Paes outright win is that I wouldn’t have to do Sunday “Mesário” work in a runoff which he would win anyway. And I guess getting rid of Crivella sooner without letting him go to a runoff, which is kinda humiliating after everything he did. I don’t accept this man still having this level of support, makes me very ashamed of the city.

[Mike88]

The first polls will close in almost 2 hours.

Results pages:

https://especiaisg1.globo/politica/eleicoes/2020/mapas/apuracao-no-brasil/?_ga=2.141989298.1074373434.1605462563-1420319391.1605462561

https://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2020/resultado-das-apuracoes/cidades/

[Mike88]

Poll are starting to close. Waiting for the exit polls.

São Paulo exit poll Ibope

Bruno Covas (PSDB): 33%
Guilherme Boulos (PSOL): 25%
Márcio França (PSB): 13%
Arthur do Val Mamãe Falei (PATRIOTA): 8%
Celso Russomanno (Republicanos): 8%
Jilmar Tatto (PT): 8%
Joice Hasselmann (PSL): 2%
Andrea Matarazzo (PSD): 1%
Levy Fidelix (PRTB): 1%
Marina Helou (REDE): 1%

Covas and Boulos will go to 2nd round.

[Mike88]

Rio de Janeiro Ibope exit poll:

Eduardo Paes (DEM): 39%
Crivella (Republicanos): 20%
Benedita da Silva (PT): 14%
Delegada Martha Rocha (PDT): 11%
Luiz Lima (PSL): 6%
Renata Souza (PSOL): 4%
Bandeira de Mello (Rede): 2%
Paulo Messina (MDB): 2%
Clarissa Garotinho (Pros): 1%
Fred Luz (Novo): 1%
Cyro Garcia (PSTU): 0%
Glória Heloiza (PSC): 0%
Henrique Simonard (PCO): 0%
Suêd Haidar (PMB): 0%

Paes and Incumbent mayor Crivella will go to a 2nd round.

Recife Ibope exit poll:

João Campos (PSB): 35%
Marília Arraes (PT): 30%
Mendonça Filho (DEM): 19%
Delegada Patrícia (Podemos): 12%
Carlos (PSL): 1%
Charbel (Novo): 1%
Coronel Feitosa (PSC): 1%
Thiago Santos (UP): 1%
Claudia Ribeiro (PSTU): 0%
Marco Aurélio Meu Amigo (PRTB): 0%
Victor Assis (PCO): 0%

Second round between Campos and Arraes.

[Mike88]

So far, the big surprise are the results from São Paulo with the very strong showing of the PSOL candidate and the disappointing share for the PSDB. In Rio, incumbent Crivella seems to be a bit ahead of what pre-election polls predicted.

[Mike88]

First returns:

Salvador city (BA)

62.9% DEM
20.1% PT
  5.6% AVANTE
  5.2% PCB
  3.6% PRTB
  1.9% PSOL

Belém city (PA)

34.0% PSOL
23.9% PATRIOTA
16.2% MDB
  8.9% CIDADANIA
  6.9% PSB
  6.4% REPUBLICANOS
  3.0% PSD

[Mike88]

Of the main cities reporting, only in Fortaleza is where a Bolsonaro candidate is ahead but by only a 36% to 33% margin with just 0.11% reporting.

In the rest, very poor performance, as expected, by Bolsonaro supported candidates. PSOL is doing very well in many cities so far.

[Mike88]

First returns from São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro:

São Paulo 0,39% in

32.6% PSDB
20.3% PSOL
14.0% PSB
10.4% REPUBLICANOS
  9.7% PATRIOTA
  8.8% PT
  1.7% PSD
  1.6% PSL

Rio de Janeiro 0,11% in

33.4% DEM
23.0% REPUBLICANOS
13.0% PDT
11.0% PT
  9.0% PSL
  3.6% PSOL
  2.3% MDB
  2.1% NOVO
  1.9% REDE

[Mike88]

Still very early, but trainwreck results for PT and in some extent for PSDB so far.