Brazil Municipal Elections (November 15th, November 29th, 2020)

[buritobr]

Yes. Polls close at 5pm and the results come soon. But I will post here only in the evening. I was drafted to work in the poll (mesário) in the precint I vote. So, it is my task to collect signatures, check voter's ID, type the voter's numbers in the machine so that they can vote, organize the line in order to observe safe distance, take the disk storage of the machine after the closing time. I will need some masks to chance in every 4 hour. When I come home, I post here and comment the results.

[buritobr]

If you don't consider the catastrophic year of 2016, the worst year for the left in Brazil in municipal elections was 1996. PT won only two state capitals: Edmílson Rodrigues was elected mayor of Belém and Raul Pont was elected mayor of Porto Alegre.

If you restrict the left to PT, PSOL and PCdoB and exclude PDT, PSB and REDE from the left, in 2020 can win only in Belém and Porto Alegre again. The same Edmílson Rodrigues, now in PSOL, has a huge lead in the polls. And Manuela (PCdoB) is leading the polls in Porto Alegre.

[buritobr]

Datafolha last polls

São Paulo
Bruno Covas (PSDB): 37%
Guilherme Boulos (PSOL): 17%
Márcio França (PSB): 14%
Celso Russomanno (Republicanos): 13%
Arthur do Val - Mamãe Falei (Patriota): 6%
Jilmar Tatto (PT): 6%
Joice Hasselmann (PSL): 3%
Andrea Matarazzo (PSD): 2%
Marina Helou (Rede): 1%
Vera Lúcia (PSTU): 1%
Orlando Silva (PCdoB): 1%

Runoff
Bruno Covas 57% x 30% Guilherme Boulos (branco/nulo: 12%; não sabe: 2%)
Bruno Covas 51% x 36% Márcio França (branco/nulo: 11%; não sabe: 2%)
Bruno Covas 63% x 21% Celso Russomanno (branco/nulo: 14%; não sabe: 2%)

Rio de Janeiro

Eduardo Paes (DEM): 40%
Crivella (Republicanos): 18%
Martha Rocha (PDT): 13%
Benedita da Silva (PT): 10%
Luiz Lima (PSL): 6%
Renata Souza (PSOL): 5%
Paulo Messina (MDB): 3%
Bandeira de Mello (Rede): 2%
Clarissa Garotinho (Pros): 1%
Fred Luz (Novo): 1%
Glória Heloiza (PSC): 1%

runoff
Eduardo Paes 57% x 22% Crivella (branco/nulo: 20%; não sabe: 1%)
Eduardo Paes 46% x 33% Martha Rocha (branco/nulo: 19%; não sabe: 2%)
Eduardo Paes 49% x 26% Benedita da Silva (branco/nulo: 24%; não sabe: 1%)

Belo Horizonte
Kalil (PSD): 69%
João Vitor Xavier (Cidadania): 11%
Bruno Engler (PRTB): 6%
Áurea Carolina (Psol): 6%
Nilmário Miranda (PT): 2%
Rodrigo Paiva (Novo): 2%
Luisa Barreto (PSDB): 1%
Professor Wendel Mesquita (Solidariedade): 1%
Lafayette Andrada (Republicanos): 1%

Recife
João Campos (PSB): 34%
Marília Arraes (PT): 25%
Mendonça Filho (DEM): 23%
Delegada Patrícia (Podemos): 13%
Carlos (PSL): 2%
Coronel Feitosa (PSC): 2%
Marco Aurélio Meu Amigo (PRTB): 1%
Charbel (Novo): 1%

Salvador
Bruno Reis (DEM): 66%
Major Denice (PT): 17%
Pastor Sargento Isidório (Avante): 6%
Olívia Santana (PC do B): 4%
Bacelar (Podemos): 3%
Cézar Leite (PRTB): 2%
Hilton Coelho (PSOL): 1%

[buritobr]

Last Ibope Polls

São Paulo
Bruno Covas (PSDB): 38%
Guilherme Boulos (PSOL): 16%
Celso Russomanno (Republicanos): 13%
Márcio França (PSB): 13%
Arthur do Val - Mamãe Falei (Patriota): 7%
Jilmar Tatto (PT): 6%
Joice Hasselmann (PSL): 3%
Andrea Matarazzo (PSD): 2%
Levy Fidelix (PRTB): 1%
Marina Helou (Rede): 1%

Rio de Janeiro
Eduardo Paes (DEM): 41%
Crivella (Republicanos): 16%
Benedita da Silva (PT): 13%
Delegada Martha Rocha (PDT): 11%
Luiz Lima (PSL): 7%
Bandeira de Mello (Rede): 3%
Renata Souza (PSOL): 3%
Paulo Messina (MDB): 3%
Fred Luz (Novo): 2%
Clarissa Garotinho (Pros): 1%

Porto Alegre
Eduardo Paes (DEM): 41%
Crivella (Republicanos): 16%
Benedita da Silva (PT): 13%
Delegada Martha Rocha (PDT): 11%
Luiz Lima (PSL): 7%
Bandeira de Mello (Rede): 3%
Renata Souza (PSOL): 3%
Paulo Messina (MDB): 3%
Fred Luz (Novo): 2%
Clarissa Garotinho (Pros): 1%

Florianópolis
Gean Loureiro (DEM): 62%
Professor Elson (PSOL): 16%
Pedrão (PL): 10%
Angela Amin (PP): 9%
Alexander Brasil (PRTB): 1%
Dr. Ricardo (Solidariedade): 1%
Helio Bairros (Patriota): 1%
Orlando (Novo): 1%

Curitiba
Rafael Greca (DEM): 56%
Goura (PDT): 11%
Fernando Francischini (PSL): 8%
João Arruda (MDB): 5%
Christiane Yared (PL): 4%
Carol Arns (Podemos): 4%
Dr. João Guilherme (Novo): 3%
Professor Mocellin (PV): 2%
Paulo Opuszka (PT): 2%
Marisa Lobo (Avante): 1%
Zé Boni (PTC): 1%
Letícia Lanz (PSOL): 1%

Campinas
Rafa Zimbaldi (PL): 28%
Dário Saadi (Republicanos): 27%
Pedro Tourinho (PT): 18%
Artur Orsi (PSD): 9%
Dr. Hélio (PDT): 5%
Delegada Teresinha (PTB): 4%
Alessandra Ribeiro (PCdoB): 3%
Wilson Matos (Patriota): 3%
André von Zuben (Cidadania): 1%
Rogério Menezes (PV): 1%
Laura Leal (PSTU): 1%
Prof. Ahmed Tarique Agio (PMN): 1%

[buritobr]

Could we a see a surprise win already on the 1st round for Covas and Paes? The trend is favoring that possibility.

In Rio de Janeiro, it is hard. In São Paulo, it is possible. The right-wing voters of Russomano, Mamãefalei and Joyce might move their votes to Bruno Covas in order to avoid the runoff. If there is runoff, both candidates will have daily 10 minutes of TV time. The right would not like Boulos to have 10 minutes daily TV time.

[buritobr]

Slow counting. We should not make jokes about US election anymore

[buritobr]

In the precint I worked, there were 334 voters, 180 voted, 170 casted valid votes: 62 for Eduardo Paes, 29 for Martha Rocha, 28 for Benedita da Silva, 17 for Crivela, 8 for Renata Rouza. This precint is located in Flamengo, a middle-upper-class neighborhood. It is still frightening Crivela had 10% there, considering he used to be almost zero in the southern zone. However, most of the voters of this precint were old voters, so, probably, the vote for Paes and Crivela there was higher than the average of Flamengo

[buritobr]

Voting is mandatory. But it is very easy for people who didn't vote to "justificar" in the Internet. The share of blank and nullified votes was very low. So, I think that voters who were planning to nulify their votes decided to stay at home because of the pandemic.

[buritobr]

It will be very hard for Edmílson (PSOL) in Belém too

[buritobr]

Now we can see the map of the vote in Rio de Janeiro. Benedita da Silva did not so bad in the southern zone (middle class neighborhoods). She was able to hold many Freixo 2016 votes. But her results were a disaster in ther western zone. PT probably though that since she is evangelic, she could break the evangelic stronghold in the western zone. But she couldn't. Crivela had his best results there https://especiaisg1.globo/rj/rio-de-janeiro/eleicoes/2020/mapas/apuracao-zona-eleitoral-prefeito/rio-de-janeiro/1-turno/?_ga=2.188031659.244492886.1605366115-9f4cafc3-7494-6e16-b4a8-8dfe9f41169d

[buritobr]

In the runoff in Rio de Janeiro, there will be a race between Democrats (the name of Eduardo Paes's party) and Republicans (the name of Marcelo Crivela's party)

[buritobr]

Red Velvet explained well the difference between PT and PSOL and I add a further explanation: I know that many people in this forum watch german politics. So, a good comparison we can make is that PT is similar to the SPD and PSOL is similar to Die Linke

[buritobr]

The left performed bad for the election of many big cities, but had some gains in the election for vereadores.

The distribution of the 55 seats of the Municipal Chamber of São Paulo was: PT 8, PSDB 8, PSOL 6, DEM 6, REP 4, Podemos 3, PSD 3, MDB 3, Patriota 3, Novo 2, PSB 2, PL 2, other 5. PT decreased 1 seat in comparison to 2016, but PSOL increased 4 seats. PSDB decreased 3 seats. Eduardo Suplicy (PT) was the vereador who received the biggest number of votes: 167,552

The distribution of the 51 seats of the Municipal Chamber of Rio de Janeiro was: PSOL 7, DEM 7, REP 7, PSD 3, PT 3, Avante 3, PL 2, PP 2, Cidadania 2, PSC 2, other 13. Despite the fact that PSOL had no competitive candidate for mayor in 2020, this party increased 1 seat in comparison to 2016. Tarcisio Motta (PSOL) was the vereador who received the biggest number of votes: 86,243

[buritobr]

In the past, DEM used to be on the right of PSDB. Nowadays, this difference is not important anymore, since PSDB has right-wing new leaderships.

[buritobr]

Endorsements in the 2nd round:

In São Paulo, PT endorses Guilherme Boulos, of course. PT leaders like Lula, Eduardo Suplicy, Fernando Haddad and Jilmar Tatto are willing to have an active role in the campaign. PDT and PSB still haven't decide if they will endorse Boulos. Russomano endorses Covas.

In Porto Alegre, PSOL's candidate Fernanda Melchionna decided to endorse Manuela d'Avila few hours after the polls were closed in the 1st round. This decision showed how the left changed (for better) in the last 2 years. Melchionna belong to the most anti-PT wing of PSOL, like her colleage Luciana Genro, also from the south of Brazil, who ran for president in 2014. Guilherme Boulos, Marcelo Freixo and Jean Wyllys belong to the most pro-PT wing of PSOL. But in this new scenario, in which there is a far-right government in Brazil, even the most anti-PT wing of PSOL recognizes that it is important to be allies. PDT still didn't decide if it will endorse Manuela, but PDT candidate Juliana Brizola has already said that she is willing to endorse Manuela. Marina Silva endorses Manuela.

In Rio de Janeiro, PT endorses Eduardo Paes. Freixo also said that he will vote for Eduardo Paes.

In Fortaleza, PT endorses PDT candidate against the far-right police captain.

[buritobr]

PDT confirmed the official endorsement to Guilherme Boulos

[buritobr]

The total votes for councilor are better thermomether of partisan strengh than the total votes for mayor. In the election for councilor, people vote in the candidates of their favorite parties. In the election for mayor, sometimes it is not possible, because some parties don't have candidates in some cities and because sometimes parties don't have competitive candidates.

[buritobr]

Partido Novo (New Party) was created by top CEOs of banks. This party supports free-market economy, small government, thatcherist economics, Chicago economics. Novo is neutral in issues like LGBT, abortion and cannabis: this neutrality was supposed to please both groups of the right, but actually this neutrality bother the two groups, the social conservatives and the "social liberal economic conservatives".
Novo did worse in 2020 than in 2016 and 2018 because there was an internal disagreement between the two wings: the pro-Bolsonaro wing and the wing who supports only his economic policies but has some criticism in other policies.
Sometimes, Novo voters are known as the upper class bolsonaristas, the bolsonaristas who wear polo shirts.

Some people who support free-market economy, small government but also support legalization of abortion and legalization of cannabis are trying to collect enough signatures in order to create another party: "Livres"

[buritobr]

Number of million votes for vereador each party received in the sum of all Brazilian cities

MDB 8.2
PSD 7.6
Progressistas 7.2
DEM 6.3
PSDB 6.1
Republicanos 5.3
PT 5.2
PL 5.2
PDT 5.1
PSB 4.8
PTB 3.8
Podemos 3.5
PSC 3.2
Cidadania 3.1
PSL 3.0
Solidariedade 2.7
Avante 2.4
Patriota 2.3
PV 1.9
PROS 1.9
PCdoB 1.6
PSOL 1.5
PRTB 1.1
PTC 1.0
https://www.poder360.com.br/eleicoes/votos-em-vereador-do-dem-disparam-em-2020-mas-mdb-ainda-lidera-2/

[buritobr]

Comparing the 2016 and 2020 elections for mayor of Rio de Janeiro according to ideology

2016
Left and center-left = Freixo + Jandira + Molon + Garcia = 23.22%
Center-right = Pedro Paulo + Índio + Osório = 33.73%
Far-right = Crivella + Flávio Bolsonaro + Carmen = 43.05%

2020
Left and center-left = Martha + Benedita + Renata + Bandeira + Garcia = 28.40%
Center-right = Paes + Messina + Clarissa = 40.40%
Far-right = Crivella + Luiz Lima + Fred + Glória + Sued = 31.18%

https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elei%C3%A7%C3%A3o_municipal_do_Rio_de_Janeiro_em_2016
https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elei%C3%A7%C3%A3o_municipal_do_Rio_de_Janeiro_em_2020

We can see that the center-right increased, the far-right declined and the (center-)left had small gains even without a charismatic candidate like Freixo. But we have to recognize that Crivella was not so identified to the far-right in 2016 as he is in 2020. The biggest difference between 2016 and 2020 is that in 2016, almost all the votes from the left were concentrated in Marcelo Freixo, so that he could go to the runoff. The center-right vote was split among Pedro Paulo, Índio da Costa and Carlos Osório. In 2020, the vote for the left was split so that the left could not go to the runoff. The center-right vote was concentrated in Eduardo Paes.

[buritobr]

PT had 5.2M votes for vereador in 2016. Very bad. In 2020, PT had the same 5.2M votes. Horrible.
But the composition of these votes changed. PT had some small gains in big cities and some losses in very poor municipalities in the North and Northeast. Dilma was ousted in April 2016, and the memory of the Bolsa Família (income transfer program of Lula and Dilma) was still fresh on October 2016.
In 2020, the very poor people were benefited by the "auxílio emergencial" (an income transfer program which took place during the pandemic), which was proposed by the oposition, but many poor people don't know and relate it to Bolsonaro.

[buritobr]

Datafolha São Paulo today
Bruno Covas 48%, Guilherme Boulos 40%
Getting closer

[buritobr]

When I need to vote for Eduardo Paes against Marcelo Crivella, I feel like a french voting for Jacques Chirac against Jean Marie Le Pen in 2002 or voting for Emmanuel Macron against Marine Le Pen in 2017

[buritobr]

Ibope Polls today

São Paulo: Bruno Covas 48%, Guilherme Boulos 37%
Rio de Janeiro: Eduardo Paes 53%, Marcelo Crivella 28%
Recife: João Campos 43%, Marilia Arraes 41%

[buritobr]

Datafolha polls today

São Paulo: Bruno Covas 47%, Guilherme Boulos 40%
Rio de Janeiro: Eduardo Paes 55%, Marcelo Crivella 23%
Recife: Marília Arraes 43%, João Campos 40%