Brazil Municipal Elections (November 15th, November 29th, 2020)

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Interesting analisis written by journalist Leonardo Sakamoto about the election in São Paulo. Jilmar Tatto can help, and not harm, Guilherme Boulos. The PT candidate can steal low income voters from Russomano. Many low income voters do not care about left/right scale. They have already voted for Maluf and for Marta for mayor. They have already voted for Lula and for Bolsonaro for president. They can either vote for Russomano, endorsed by Bolsonaro, and for Tatto, endorsed by Lula. Tatto is already polling better than Boulos in the group of voters who earn less than 1 minimum wage.
https://noticias.uol.com.br/colunas/leonardo-sakamoto/2020/10/16/tatto-pode-desidratar-russomanno-e-empurrar-boulos-para-o-2-turno.htm?fbclid=IwAR05rxyUAFawjOe_VXL8JZQcaGmYUC_WgtUvr3MIpcy_avhEw_a4IGFvUSk

Guilherme Boulos, leader of the Movement of Homeless Workers (MTST), became a member of PSOL only in 2017. PSOL leaders, like Ivan Valente and Marcelo Freixo, considered that Boulos would help PSOL to get closer to the low class. PSOL is the party of the middle class left: its main base has university professors and students, public sector employees and artists. This goal was not achieved. Boulos is polling well, but only in the middle class, not in the low class.

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Indeed, PT’s success with lower income people is something other left parties should look up to. It’s impossible to have a broad front without PT because no one has such builted trust with such important demographic. PDT does well but not nearly as much and PSOL is still seen as an “elite” party.

It’s interesting how the party makes such an important difference. If Boulos ran in the PT, I think the demographics of his vote would significantly change. The appeal he has with upper middle class and high-education voters mirrors way too much Freixo here in 2016, who always struggled to get accepted by other different demographics of voters.

Sure. Marta Suplicy and Fernando Haddad were not that kind of good fit for low-income voters, but they had low-income voters because they were PT candidates

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Datafolha Polls, October 22nd

São Paulo
Bruno Covas (PSDB): 23%
Celso Russomanno (Republicanos): 20%
Guilherme Boulos (PSOL): 14%
Márcio França (PSB): 10%
Arthur do Val - Mamãe Falei (Patriota): 4%
Jilmar Tatto (PT): 4%
Joice Hasselmann (PSL): 3%
Andrea Matarazzo (PSD): 2%
Levy Fidelix (PRTB): 1%
Marina Helou (Rede): 1%
Orlando Silva (PCdoB): 1%
Vera Lúcia (PSTU): 1%

Runoff scenarios
Bruno Covas 48% x 36% Celso Russomanno (branco/nulo: 14%; não sabe: 1%)

Rio de Janeiro
Eduardo Paes (DEM): 28%
Crivella (Republicanos): 13%
Martha Rocha (PDT): 13%
Benedita da Silva (PT): 10%
Renata Souza (PSOL): 5%
Luiz Lima (PSL): 4%
Bandeira de Mello (Rede): 3%
Cyro Garcia (PSTU): 1%
Clarissa Garotinho (Pros): 1%
Fred Luz (Novo): 1%
Glória Heloiza (PSC): 1%

Runoff scenarios
Eduardo Paes 52% x 22% Crivella (branco/nulo: 25%; não sabe: 2%)
Marta Rocha 45% x 41% Eduardo Paes (branco/nulo: 13%; não sabe: 1%)
Eduardo Paes 48% x 30% Benedita da Silva (branco/nulo: 21%; não sabe: 1%)

Good news: In São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, the 3 leftist candidates increased, and the "Republicanos" candidates decreased.

Bad news: Far-right candidates like Artur Mamãefalei (São Paulo) and Luiz Lima (Rio de Janeiro) reached 4% and they can grow even more

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Yes, Luiz Lima can increase his performance because he can take most of the Crivella's votes and go to ~15%. Crivella don't make all the bolsominions excited because he was an ally of Lula, Dilma, Lindberg, Cabral and Paes in the past. Bolsonaro has a positive evaluation of ~35% in Rio de Janeiro.

Until now, the left-wing famous artists, like Chico Buarque, Caetano Veloso, Gilberto Gil, Bela Gil, Wagner Moura, Leticia Sabatella, Sonia Braga, Fernanda Montenegro and Gregorio Duvivier are silent about the Rio campaign. They are supporting Boulos in São Paulo and Manuela in Porto Alegre. Maybe, they participate in the campaign in the last week. Many of them usually support PSOL, but since Renata Souza is not polling well, maybe they endorse Martha or Benedita. If these artists have an influence in something like 3% of the voters, their decision of whom they will support can put one of them in the runoff.

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Other Datafolha Polls

Belo Horizonte
Kalil (PSD): 60%
João Vitor Xavier (Cidadania): 7%
Áurea Carolina (Psol): 5%
Bruno Engler (PRTB): 3%
Nilmário Miranda (PT): 2%

Incumbent mayor Kalil has very high approval rate and he will be reelected easily. He is not identified with the left or the right

Recife
João Campos (PSB): 31%
Marília Arraes (PT): 18%
Delegada Patrícia (Podemos): 16%
Mendonça Filho (DEM): 15%

There is a dispute between two important center-left families from the state of Pernambuco: Campos and Arraes. Both families are connected with each other. Former governor Eduardo Campos, who was running for president and died from a plane crash during the 2014 campaign was the grandson of famous politician Miguel Arraes.

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Bruno Covas has low approval rate and in normal situations he would loose the reelection. But he has the runoff advantage, because he is neither left nor Bolsonaro. If he run against Russomano, some low-income voters who have already voted for Lula and Dilma could vote for Russomano, but the ideological leftist voters will vote for Covas. If Covas run against Boulos, he will have the vote of the right.

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Demographics according to Datafolha

São Paulo

Total: Covas 23%, Russomano 20%, Boulos 14%, França 10%, Tatto 4%, Mamãefalei 4%

Gender
Male: Covas 20%, Russomano 20%, Boulos 15%, França 12%, Tatto 4%, Mamãefalei 7%
Female: Covas 26%, Russomano 19%, Boulos 13%, França 8%, Tatto 4%, Mamãefalei 2%

Age
16-24: Covas 12%, Russomano 20%, Boulos 27%, França 9%, Tatto 3%, Mamãefalei 7%
25-34: Covas 23%, Russomano 17%, Boulos 15%, França 10%, Tatto 4%, Mamãefalei 8%
35-44: Covas 24%, Russomano 19%, Boulos 16%, França 9%, Tatto 4%, Mamãefalei 4%
45-59: Covas 23%, Russomano 22%, Boulos 11%, França 12%, Tatto 5%, Mamãefalei 3%
60-: Covas 30%, Russomano 19%, Boulos 7%, França 7%, Tatto 5%, Mamãefalei 2%

Education
Elementary: Covas 28%, Russomano 26%, Boulos 4%, França 6%, Tatto 6%, Mamãefalei 2%
High School: Covas 21%, Russomano 24%, Boulos 11%, França 11%, Tatto 4%, Mamãefalei 3%
College: Covas 23%, Russomano 9%, Boulos 25%, França 11%, Tatto 4%, Mamãefalei 8%

Income
<2 MW: Covas 22%, Russomano 25%, Boulos 9%, França 7%, Tatto 6%, Mamãefalei 2%
2-5 MW: Covas 23%, Russomano 17%, Boulos 16%, França 12%, Tatto 4%, Mamãefalei 5%
5-10 MW: Covas 26%, Russomano 10%, Boulos 20%, França 12%, Tatto 3%, Mamãefalei 10%
>10 MW: Covas 25%, Russomano 9%, Boulos 28%, França 6%, Tatto 2%, Mamãefalei 5%

Race
White: Covas 25%, Russomano 19%, Boulos 16%, França 8%, Tatto 4%, Mamãefalei 5%
Pardo: Covas 22%, Russomano 22%, Boulos 11%, França 11%, Tatto 6%, Mamãefalei 3%
Black: Covas 21%, Russomano 16%, Boulos 18%, França 10%, Tatto 4%, Mamãefalei 4%
Asian: Covas 38%, Russomano 15%, Boulos 12%, França 10%, Tatto 8%, Mamãefalei 7%

Religion
Catholic: Covas 30%, Russomano 14%, Boulos 11%, França 11%, Tatto 5%, Mamãefalei 4%
Evangelic: Covas 20%, Russomano 31%, Boulos 6%, França 10%, Tatto 5%, Mamãefalei 3%

Partisan preference
PT: Covas 16%, Russomano 18%, Boulos 23%, França 8%, Tatto 20%, Mamãefalei 1%
PSDB: Covas 56%, Russomano 23%, Boulos 6%, França 8%, Tatto 0%, Mamãefalei 0%

Comments: Although PSDB is considered an elitist party, Covas performs almost the same in all income levels. PSOL candidate Boulos and also far-right candidate Mamãefalei poll better in the group of higher income voters. They also poll better in the group of young voters. Until now, Boulos has only 23% of the PT voters, so, he has space to grow even more!

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Rio de Janeiro

Total: Paes 28%, Martha 13%, Crivella 13%, Benedita 10%, Renata 5%, Lima 4%, Bandeira 3%

Gender
Male: Paes 25%, Martha 12%, Crivella 17%, Benedita 7%, Renata 5%, Lima 4%, Bandeira 5%
Female: Paes 30%, Martha 13%, Crivella 9%, Benedita 12%, Renata 5%, Lima 4%, Bandeira 0%

Age
16-24: Paes 24%, Martha 8%, Crivella 17%, Benedita 15%, Renata 11%, Lima 2%, Bandeira 3%
25-34: Paes 21%, Martha 12%, Crivella 11%, Benedita 14%, Renata 9%, Lima 6%, Bandeira 4%
35-44: Paes 27%, Martha 12%, Crivella 13%, Benedita 10%, Renata 5%, Lima 4%, Bandeira 4%
45-59: Paes 28%, Martha 16%, Crivella 13%, Benedita 6%, Renata 3%, Lima 3%, Bandeira 2%
60-: Paes 35%, Martha 13%, Crivella 12%, Benedita 8%, Renata 2%, Lima 5%, Bandeira 1%

Education
Elementary: Paes 32%, Martha 10%, Crivella 16%, Benedita 9%,Renata 1%,Lima 4%,Bandeira 1%
HighSchool: Paes 25%, Martha 15%, Crivella 15%, Benedita 8%, Renata 3%,Lima 3%,Bandeira 3%
College: Paes 29%, Martha 12%, Crivella 7%, Benedita 12%, Renata 11%, Lima 5%, Bandeira 3%

Income
<2 MW: Paes 25%, Martha 14%, Crivella 14%, Benedita 13%, Renata 2%, Lima 4%, Bandeira 1%
2-5 MW: Paes 31%, Martha 13%, Crivella 13%, Benedita 7%, Renata 7%, Lima 4%, Bandeira 4%
5-10 MW: Paes 27%, Martha 11%, Crivella 6%, Benedita 8%, Renata 9%, Lima 5%, Bandeira 4%
>10 MW: Paes 31, Martha 10%, Crivella 11%, Benedita 10%, Renata 8%, Lima 3%, Bandeira 0%

Race
White: Paes 30%, Martha 13%, Crivella 11%, Benedita 8%, Renata 7%, Lima 6%, Bandeira 2%
Pardo: Paes 26%, Martha 13%, Crivella 13%, Benedita 10%, Renata 4%, Lima 3%, Bandeira 4%
Black: Paes 29%, Martha 10%, Crivella 11%, Benedita 12%, Renata 7%, Lima 3%, Bandeira 3%

Religion
Catholic: Paes 36%, Martha 16%, Crivella 7%, Benedita 8%, Renata 3%, Lima 5%, Bandeira 3%
Evangelic: Paes 23%, Martha 10%, Crivella 28%, Benedita 6%, Renata 1%, Lima 3%, Bandeira 2%

Partisan preference
PT: Paes 32%, Martha 10%, Crivella 4%, Benedita 36%, Renata 1%, Lima 2%, Bandeira 1%
PSOL: Paes 22%, Martha 10%, Crivella 1%, Benedita 12%, Renata 44%, Lima 0%, Bandeira 2%

Comments: Candidates don't have too big differences in income groups. I only highlight that while the sum of the candidates of the progressive camp (Martha Rocha + Benedita da Silva + Renata Souza + Bandeira de Mello) is 31% in the group of total voters, this sum is 38% in the group of voters who have college degree. There is the obvious differences in the vote for Crivella according to religious groups. And considering that Benedita has only 36% in the group of PT voters and Renata has 44% in the group of PSOL voters, they have space to grow. According to this poll, 32% of PT voters are willing to vote for Eduardo Paes!

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In a previous post, I mentioned that the famous people were silent about the election in Rio de Janeiro.
Last weekend, a lot of famous people endorsed Benedita da Silva. They signed a manifesto
https://beneditadorio.com.br/manifesto/
The list included Chico Buarque, Gregório Duvivier, Teresa Cristina, Paulo Betti, José de Abreu, Ziraldo, Martinho da Vila, Wagner Moura, Kleber Mendonça Filho etc

This kind of endorsement can help to create a bandwagon effect. People who have doubt between voting for Martha Rocha or Benedita da Silva because they have doubt about who can perform better than Crivella can feel safer to vote for Benedita.

It is better for Benedita that she has a surge in the polls only in the final week, so that there is no enough time to become target of negative propaganda

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Ibope Polls today

Porto Alegre
Manuela D'Ávila (PCdoB): 27%
Nelson Marchezan Júnior (PSDB): 14%
Sebastião Melo (MDB): 14%
José Fortunati (PTB): 13%
Juliana Brizola (PDT): 4%
João Derly (Republicanos): 3%
Fernanda Melchionna (PSOL): 3%

Belo Horizonte
Kalil (PSD): 63%
João Vitor Xavier (Cidadania): 8%
Áurea Carolina (PSOL): 5%
Bruno Engler (PRTB): 3%
Nilmário Miranda (PT): 2%

Recife
João Campos (PSB): 31%
Marília Arraes (PT): 18%
Delegada Patrícia (Podemos): 16%
Mendonça Filho (DEM): 13%

Porto Alegre and Recife are in the group of the few state capitals in which the left has great probability to win

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Ibope polls today

São Paulo

First round
Bruno Covas (PSDB): 26%
Celso Russomanno (Republicanos): 20%
Guilherme Boulos (PSOL): 13%
Márcio França (PSB): 11%
Jilmar Tatto (PT): 6%
Arthur do Val - Mamãe Falei (Patriota): 3%
Joice Hasselmann (PSL): 2%
Andrea Matarazzo (PSD): 1%
Levy Fidelix (PRTB): 1%
Orlando Silva (PCdoB): 1%

Runoff simulations
•Bruno Covas 47% X 31% Celso Russomanno
•Bruno Covas 51% X 26% Guilherme Boulos
•Bruno Covas 45% X 34% Márcio França
•Celso Russomanno 43% X 31% Guilherme Boulos
•Márcio França 43% X 34% Celso Russomanno
•Márcio França 48% X 26% Guilherme Boulos

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Rio de Janeiro

First round
Eduardo Paes (DEM): 32%
Crivella (Republicanos): 14%
Delegada Martha Rocha (PDT): 14%
Benedita da Silva (PT): 9%
Luiz Lima (PSL): 4%
Bandeira de Mello (Rede): 2%
Renata Souza (PSOL): 2%
Fred Luz (Novo): 1%
Paulo Messina (MDB): 1%

Runoff simulations
Eduardo Paes 41% x 34% Delegada Martha Rocha
Eduardo Paes 51% x 19% Crivella
Benedita da Silva 23% x 46% Eduardo Paes
Delegada Martha Rocha 50% x 21% Crivella
Benedita da Silva 27% x 41% Delegada Martha Rocha
Benedita da Silva 37% x 26% Crivella

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Datafolha polls yesterday

São Paulo

Bruno Covas (PSDB): 28%
Celso Russomanno (Republicanos): 16%
Guilherme Boulos (PSOL): 14%
Márcio França (PSB): 13%
Jilmar Tatto (PT): 6%
Arthur do Val - Mamãe Falei (Patriota): 4%
Andrea Matarazzo (PSD): 3%
Joice Hasselmann (PSL): 3%
Levy Fidelix (PRTB): 1%
Marina Helou (Rede): 1%
Orlando Silva (PCdoB): 1%

Runoff
Bruno Covas 57% x 27% Celso Russomanno (branco/nulo: 15%; não sabe: 1%)
Bruno Covas 54% x 32% Guilherme Boulos (branco/nulo: 12%; não sabe: 1%)
Bruno Covas 48% x 39% Márcio França (branco/nulo: 12%; não sabe: 2%)
Guilherme Boulos 41% x 39% Celso Russomanno (branco/nulo: 19%; não sabe: 1%)


Rio de Janeiro

Eduardo Paes (DEM): 31%
Crivella (Republicanos): 15%
Martha Rocha (PDT): 13%
Benedita da Silva (PT): 8%
Luiz Lima (PSL): 5%
Renata Souza (PSOL): 3%
Bandeira de Mello (Rede): 3%
Paulo Messina (MDB): 1%
Clarissa Garotinho (Pros): 1%
Cyro Garcia (PSTU): 1%
Fred Luz (Novo): 1%

Runoff
Eduardo Paes 53% x 25% Crivella (branco/nulo: 21%; não sabe: 1%)
Eduardo Paes 44% x 38% Martha Rocha (branco/nulo: 16%; não sabe: 2%)
Eduardo Paes 48% x 27% Benedita da Silva (branco/nulo: 24%; não sabe: 1%)


I really think weird this poll in Rio de Janeiro. All the candidates of the right (Paes, Crivella, Lima) increased, candidates of the left decreased (Benedita, Renata). This movement was stronger in the group of people whose household income is higher than 5 minimum wages (https://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2020/eleicao-em-numeros/noticia/2020/11/06/datafolha-de-5-de-novembro-para-prefeito-do-rio-por-sexo-idade-renda-escolaridade-religiao-e-raca.ghtml) There were no facts in the last 2 weeks which explained this trend. Maybe, there was a bias in collecting the sample. Maybe, in the previous poll, most people whose income >5MW were interviewed in Botafogo, Flamengo, Laranjeiras, Catete, Glória, Santa Teresa (more left-wing middle/upper class neighborhoods) and in this recent poll, most people whose income >5MW were interviewed in Ipanema, Leblon, Barra (more right-wing middle/upper class neighborhoods). Datafolha doesn't interview people by phone, don't visit people in their homes. Datafolha interviews people on the streets (they used phones only during the worst stage of the pandemic).

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2020 was a bad year, but there were some good news.

Jacinda Ardern, one of the best leaders in recent times, was reelected. The leaders of the 2019 coup in Bolivia were defeated and MAS won a landslide. Chile will have a new constitution. Trump was defeated. Bolsonaro's candidates are leading the polls in only 3 of the 26 state capitals. There is the possibility of no Bolsonaro candidates in the runoff in the 2 major Brazilian cities. The bad news is that the center-right is doing well, not the left.

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From 1989 to 2014, Rio de Janeiro voted on the left of São Paulo at national level. But the approval rate of Bolsonaro in Rio de Janeiro is higher than the approval rate of Bolsonaro in São Paulo. The biggest explanation is that the share of the evangelic population in Rio de Janeiro is bigger.

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Ibope Polls today

São Paulo

Bruno Covas (PSDB): 32%
Guilherme Boulos (PSOL): 13%
Celso Russomanno (Republicanos): 12%
Márcio França (PSB): 10%
Jilmar Tatto (PT): 6%
Arthur do Val - Mamãe Falei (Patriota): 5%
Joice Hasselmann (PSL): 2%
Andrea Matarazzo (PSD): 1%
Levy Fidelix (PRTB): 1%
Orlando Silva (PCdoB): 1%
None: 11%
Don't know: 5%

Runoff
Bruno Covas 52% X 24% Guilherme Boulos (branco/nulo: 16%; não sabe: 8%)
Bruno Covas 54% X 22% Celso Russomanno (branco/nulo: 18%; não sabe: 7%)
Bruno Covas 47% X 30% Márcio França (branco/nulo: 15%; não sabe: 8%)
Celso Russomanno 36% X 32% Guilherme Boulos (branco/nulo: 24%; não sabe: 8%)
Márcio França 45% X 24% Guilherme Boulos (branco/nulo: 21%; não sabe: 9%)
Márcio França 45% X 27% Celso Russomanno (branco/nulo: 19%; não sabe: 9%)

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Rio de Janeiro

Eduardo Paes (DEM): 33%
Crivella (Republicanos): 15%
Delegada Martha Rocha (PDT): 14%
Benedita da Silva (PT): 9%
Luiz Lima (PSL): 4%
Renata Souza (PSOL): 3%
Bandeira de Mello (Rede): 2%
Fred Luz (Novo): 1%
Paulo Messina (MDB): 1%
Clarissa Garotinho (Pros): 1%
None: 12%
Don't know: 4%

Runoff
Eduardo Paes 53% x 21% Crivella (branco/nulo: 21%; não sabe: 4%)
Eduardo Paes 45% x 32% Martha Rocha (branco/nulo: 18%; não sabe: 5%)
Eduardo Paes 49% x 23% Benedita da Silva (branco/nulo: 23%; não sabe: 5%)
Martha Rocha 52% x 22% Crivella (branco/nulo: 21%; não sabe: 6%)
Martha Rocha 45% x 25% Benedita da Silva (branco/nulo: 22%; não sabe: 8%)
Benedita da Silva 40% x 26% Crivella (branco/nulo: 27%; não sabe: 7%)

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Belo Horizonte
Kalil (PSD): 62%
João Vitor Xavier (Cidadania): 7%
Áurea Carolina (PSOL): 5%
Bruno Engler (PRTB): 4%
Nilmário Miranda (PT): 2%
Rodrigo Paiva (Novo): 2%
Luisa Barreto (PSDB): 2%
Cabo Xavier (PMB): 1%
Marília Domingues (PCO): 1%

Recife
João Campos (PSB): 33%
Marília Arraes (PT): 21%
Mendonça Filho (DEM): 17%
Delegada Patrícia (Podemos): 12%
Coronel Feitosa (PSC): 1%
Marco Aurélio Meu Amigo (PRTB): 1%
Carlos (PSL): 1%
Charbel (Novo): 1%

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Other data from the Ibope polls: approval rates

São Paulo
mayor Bruno Covas: good/very good 33%, regular 42%, bad/very bad 22%
governor João Dória: good/very good 15%, regular 34%, bad/very bad 49%
president Jair Bolsonaro: good/very good 23%, regular 22%, bad/very bad 54%

Rio de Janeiro
mayor Marcelo Crivella: good/very good 13%, regular 24%, bad/very bad 62%
governor Claudio Castro: good/very good 6%, regular 37%, bad/very bad 33%
president Jair Bolsonaro: good/very good 32%, regular 24%, bad/very bad 42%

Belo Horizonte
mayor Kalil: good/very good 65%, regular 23%, bad/very bad 12%
governor Zema: good/very good 33%, regular 33%, bad/very bad 30%
president Jair Bolsonaro: good/very good 32%, regular 22%, bad/very bad 44%

Recife
mayor Geraldo Julio: good/very good 23%, regular 38%, bad/very bad 37%
governor Paulo Camara: good/very good 18%, regular 37%, bad/very bad 44%
president Jair Bolsonaro: good/very good 28%, regular 21%, bad/very bad 50%

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The campaigns from Eduardo Paes, Martha Rocha, Benedita da Silva and Renata Souza considered too early that Crivella was dead. He is not the main focus of negative campaign. There are no scandals related to Crivella in the media anymore. But Crivella is not dead. He has 3 more points than one month ago. If you look at the last Ibope polls by demographics (https://g1.globo.com/politica/eleicoes/2020/eleicao-em-numeros/noticia/2020/11/10/ibope-de-9-de-novembro-para-prefeito-do-rio-por-sexo-idade-renda-escolaridade-religiao-e-raca.ghtml) the group in which Crivella increased more was the group of the evangelic voters. He had 24% in October 15th, and now he has 31%. In the group of all voters, the mayor had 12% and now he has 15%. The evangelic voters are going back home.
I have a hope that he is already close to his ceiling, since we can perceive he is already overperforming if we look at the approval rate poll.

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Yes. According to the polls, Eduardo Paes would have a huge margin against Crivella in the runoff. But since Crivella is a horrible mayor endorsed by a horrible president, it would be disgusting see him in the runoff.

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Datafolha polls today

Rio de Janeiro

Eduardo Paes (DEM): 34%
Crivella (Republicanos): 14%
Martha Rocha (PDT): 11%
Benedita da Silva (PT): 8%
Luiz Lima (PSL): 5%
Renata Souza (PSOL): 4%
Bandeira de Mello (Rede): 2%
Paulo Messina (MDB): 2%
Clarissa Garotinho (Pros): 1%
Fred Luz (Novo): 1%
Glória Heloiza (PSC): 1%

runoff
Eduardo Paes 58% x 22% Crivella (branco/nulo: 20%; não sabe: 1%)
Eduardo Paes 46% x 35% Martha Rocha (branco/nulo: 17%; não sabe: 1%)
Eduardo Paes 50% x 27% Benedita da Silva (branco/nulo: 22%; não sabe: 1%)

Recife
João Campos (PSB): 29%
Marília Arraes (PT): 22%
Mendonça Filho (DEM): 18%
Delegada Patrícia (Podemos): 15%
Carlos (PSL): 2%
Coronel Feitosa (PSC): 1%

Belo Horizonte
Kalil (PSD): 63%
João Vitor Xavier (Cidadania): 8%
Áurea Carolina (Psol): 6%
Bruno Engler (PRTB): 4%
Nilmário Miranda (PT): 2%
Rodrigo Paiva (Novo): 2%
Luisa Barreto (PSDB): 1%
Professor Wendel (Solidariedade): 1%
Lafayette Andrada (Republicanos): 1%
Marília Domingues (PCO): 1%

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Datafolha São Paulo yesterday

Bruno Covas (PSDB): 32%
Guilherme Boulos (PSOL): 16%
Celso Russomanno (Republicanos): 14%
Márcio França (PSB): 12%
Arthur do Val - Mamãe Falei (Patriota): 4%
Jilmar Tatto (PT): 4%
Joice Hasselmann (PSL): 3%
Andrea Matarazzo (PSD): 2%
Marina Helou (Rede): 1%
Vera Lúcia (PSTU): 1%
Nenhum/branco/nulo: 7%
Não sabe: 3%

runoff
Bruno Covas 59% x 25% Celso Russomanno (branco/nulo: 15%; não sabe: 1%)
Bruno Covas 56% x 30% Guilherme Boulos (branco/nulo: 12%; não sabe: 2%)
Bruno Covas 53% x 34% Márcio França (branco/nulo: 11%; não sabe: 3%)

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My vote tommorow in Rio de Janeiro

Mayor: Benedita da Silva 13
"Vereador": Luciana Boiteux 50180

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Roger Waters is endorsing Monica Benicio 50333, Marielle Franco's widow. He recorded a video.
Roger Waters is not only a great musician. He is a great person.
https://twitter.com/monica_benicio/status/1327404807502655491

Yeah, it's dangerous that PSOL does not so well in the election for the legislative branch, since there was no strong candidate for mayor