Brazil Municipal Elections (November 15th, November 29th, 2020)

[buritobr]

Datafolha polls, today
In front of the party, I included the relation of the candidate to Bolsonaro: p if he/she is pro Bolsonaro, a if he/she is against Bolsonaro, n if he/she is neutral

São Paulo: Celso Russomano (Rep p) 27%, Bruno Covas (PSDB n) 21%, Guilherme Boulos (PSOL a) 12%, Marcio França (PSB n) 8%

Rio de Janeiro: Eduardo Paes (DEM n) 30%, Crivella (Rep p) 14%, Martha Rocha (PDT n) 10%, Benedita da Silva (PT a) 8%, Bandeira de Melo (Rede a) 3%, Renata Souza (PSOL a) 3%

Belo Horizonte: Khalil (PSD n) 56%, João Vitor Xavier (Cid n) 6%, Áurea Carolina (PSOL a) 3%

Recife: João Campos (PSB n) 26%, Marília Arraes (PT a) 17%, Mendonça Filho (DEM p) 16%

[Red Velvet]

I’m voting for Martha Rocha in Rio knowing fully well that this is 95% likely to go to Eduardo Paes no matter what. Counting only valid votes (which excludes null votes) he jumps to 43%. You just need 50% + 1 to already win on the 1st round, with no need of a runoff.

Oh well, at least it won’t be Crivella. I can’t call 4 years of Eduardo Paes “progress” though considering he ran the city from 2008 to 2016.

Yay for Russomano sinking in SP. I would say they will re-elect Covas/PSDB but the city of SP is way more unpredictable than the state of SP (which always elects a PSDB governor for almost 30 years already, with strong support from towns in the interior of the state). In the city, rarely mayors manage to get re-elected though so I don’t know what to expect.

Boulos is growing fast but I think he would be the Freixo (popular PSOL candidate from Rio in 2012 and 2016, got in 2nd place) version for São Paulo. Meaning there is lots of excitement to put him on 2nd round, but maybe also potential for big rejection from moderate voters that prevent them to win it.

Meanwhile, Russomano is SP’s version of Crivella lol. Especially considering both are the Bolsonaro candidates. He could maybe win if the competition is weak but he tends to lose many voters as the campaign goes on since they’re terrible. So did Crivella until 2016 though, always lost until he won it, so SP should not take for granted that he doesn’t have chances.

Covas is a worsened version of Eduardo Paes. Establishment option that at least you know what to expect. Paes has a lot more charisma though (personification of a “Carioca”) and is generally more competent, while benefiting from the fact he has more rejected opposition. While in SP Covas actually seems more hated than Russomano. Consequences of being the incumbent, I guess.

[buritobr]

Marcelo Freixo decided not to run because probably he though if he run, he would help Crivella be reelected. It is sure that Freixo would go to the runoff, and the probability for him to loose to any opponent in the runoff is very high. Even though Crivella has very low approval rate, he could go have enough votes from evangelics and Bolsonaro supporters to go to the runoff, and then, he could defeat Freixo in the runoff. Freixo took the decision before Crivella's scandals, and we can see now that Freixo was to careful. If he run, he would go to the runoff against Paes, and not Crivella. Paes would win, but in the scenario without Freixo, Paes will win too.
Now, without Freixo, one of the 3 female candidates of the left can go to the runoff against Paes if all the votes from the left concentrate in one of the candidates. In 2016, it was easy for the votes for Jandira and Molon go to Freixo. However, in 2020, not all Renata's and Benedita's voters will she Martha as a representative of their field.


In São Paulo, probably PT decided to have a non-competitive candidate for the same motives of Freixo. Fernando Haddad, Eduardo Suplicy or Alexandre Padilha could go to the runoff and loose to Russomano. The left was relying on Marcio França before he goes for a walk with Bolsonaro. For the left, Covas is the lesser of the evils in comparison to Russomano. Boulos polling well is a nice suprise, but he could loose to Russomano in the runoff.
Other motive for Haddad to decline is that he may be thinking in running for president, governor or senator in 2022.

[Red Velvet]

Crivella didn’t have the same huge rejection he has today during 2016, even if he was already disliked at that point. Also, 2016 + 2018 were the peak of the conservative wave, when that movement was at its strongest point post the Dilma impeachment that happened in mid-2016. And even then, with all the “leftist PSOL scare” going strong, Freixo still managed to go to the runoff and get 40% of the vote against Crivella’s 60%.

It’s a different scenario nowadays, the conservative movement kinda divided itself (Bolsonaro supporters vs Car-Wash supporters) and all the members they elected in Rio at least were a total failure. Mayor Crivella is the most hated mayor I’ve seen here and may be ineligible if justice finishes the process in time; Governor Witzel was an unknown that people blindvoted because he associated to Bolsonaro and he got impeached earlier this year; Bolsonaro has abandoned his base because the “anti-system” message that elected him is only helpful during election time. The left was the “establishment” before but now that is the right and I think there will be some sort of backlash, even if minimum (since the left parties are infighting, each one wanting to be the protagonist)

I really think Freixo could’ve had success this year had he chosen to run again. Rio is the city with the strongest PSOL voter culture, seeing Boulos do well in freaking São Paulo makes me wonder what could’ve been... Eduardo Paes still would’ve been the favorite considering how risk-averse Rio is today after the last adventure disasters of Crivella and Witzel, but I wouldn’t underestimate the very strong established base Freixo/PSOL has in wealthier areas of Rio, with increasing penetration in other sectors as well.

Even with Renata Souza (PSOL new candidate) being an unknown and weak candidate (didn’t like her at the debate), I wouldn’t entirely count them out. Where I live, in south zone, the only propaganda I receive on the street is from her and the PSOL, they’re using Freixo image hard in order to reassemble his voters back. Because most of the people who voted for Freixo in 2016 have now divided to vote for other options, like Martha Rocha (PDT), Benedita da Silva (PT) and even Eduardo Paes (DEM).

PSOL used to be much more vilified in the past, for being the only single leftist party who talked about issues like Weed; Abortion; Structural Racism; LGBT rights; etc in a society that is mostly conservative on social/culture issues because of influence of religion. Rejection to them had very little to do with economic justice stuff that PT always got lots of support for defending. The discussion of social issues is becoming much less taboo though and thus the rejection of PSOL decreases, alongside the perception they’re “radicals” becoming outdated.

Even other left wing parties that were more perceived as “moderates” or “center-left” like the PT or PDT are using these social issues more on their propaganda because they see how Brazilian society changed. Look at their commercials and members as well and you see a shift has happened DESPITE Bolsonaro. Not only left wing parties became more progressive, I think Brazilian society as a whole has too even if doesn’t look like it. Also, many many important victories happening in the last decade. I think that’s part of a world trend though.

Like, I’m gay and I can’t believe that on a span of less than 10 years we got Gay Marriage; Criminalization of Homophobia (equaled as the same as crime of Racism from the 1989 law) and also right to donate blood without any restrictions on how much active of a sex life you have. Even if it all came from the Supreme Court, how society reacted naturally to it was great.

[buritobr]

In the group of voters who have college degree, Renata Souza has 9%, tied to Martha Rocha, and better than Benedita and Crivella.
Here you can see the complete data of the datafolha poll
http://media.folha.uol.com.br/datafolha/2020/10/09/1016dbe2307b1ac721bb7d2cf1475637ivrj1.pdf

[Red Velvet]

In the group of voters who have college degree, Renata Souza has 9%, tied to Martha Rocha, and better than Benedita and Crivella.

And she has growth potential with these voters as well thanks to the really strong PSOL campaign structure in Rio, at least on the colleges and in the south zone as a whole. I don’t think it would be enough to go to 2nd round like Freixo though since his voters have already distributed themselves between Renata herself, Martha, Benedita and Eduardo. My small bubble for example, was Freixo in 2016 and now most are Martha with some few for Eduardo Paes.

It’s hard to predict who will end up in 2nd place. From the left, I could see either Martha, Benedita or even a surprise from Renata if she manages to bring regular PSOL voters (like me lol) back but I already disliked her debate performance and my impression from others who also watched is that they’re disappointed it’s not Freixo. From the right, Crivella could hold the 14% he has and be enough but I could also see candidate Luiz Lima being a potential spoiler if the right gets suddenly excited to campaign hard like they did in 2018 for an unknown. But it would be too much like 2018’s Witzel and I think Rio voters are more traumatized from that backfiring so hard and will want to play safe. Which is why Eduardo Paes will come strong.

[buritobr]

Most recent Ibope polls

São Paulo
Celso Russomanno (Republicanos): 25%
Bruno Covas (PSDB): 22%
Guilherme Boulos (PSOL): 10%
Márcio França (PSB): 7%
Jilmar Tatto (PT): 4%
Arthur do Val - Mamãe Falei (Patriota): 2%
Vera Lúcia (PSTU): 1%
Joice Hasselmann (PSL): 1%
Levy Fidelix (PRTB): 1%
Marina Helou (Rede): 1%
Andrea Matarazzo (PSD): 1%
Orlando Silva (PCdoB): 1%
Filipe Sabará (Novo): 1%

Rio de Janeiro
Eduardo Paes (DEM): 30%
Crivella (Republicanos): 12%
Martha Rocha (PDT): 8%
Benedita da Silva (PT): 7%
Bandeira de Mello (Rede): 3%
Renata Souza (PSOL): 3%
Luiz Lima (PSL): 3%
Cyro Garcia (PSTU): 2%
Clarissa Garotinho (Pros): 1%
Fred Luz (Novo): 1%
Paulo Messina (MDB): 1%

Fortaleza
Capitão Wagner (Pros): 28%
Luizianne Lins (PT): 23%
Sarto (PDT): 16%
Heitor Férrer (SD): 6%
Célio Studart (PV): 4%
Renato Roseno (Psol): 3%
Heitor Freire (PSL): 1%
Anízio Melo (PC do B): 0%
Samuel Braga (Patriota): 0%

[PSOL]

Burrito, why don’t you like Benedita Da Silva?

[buritobr]

Burrito, why don’t you like Benedita Da Silva?

I have never told I don't like her. There is the possibility that I vote for her. I will vote for Martha Rocha, Benedita da Silva or Renata Souza. I didn't choose among these 3 yet.

[buritobr]

Ibope polls

Belo Horizonte
Kalil (PSD): 59%
João Vitor Xavier (Cidadania): 7%
Áurea Carolina (Psol): 3%
Bruno Engler (PRTB): 2%
Nilmário Miranda (PT): 1%
Rodrigo Paiva (Novo): 1%
Cabo Xavier (PMB): 1%
Lafayette Andrada (Republicanos): 1%
Marília Domingues (PCO): 1%
Professor Wendel Mesquita (Solidariedade): 1%
Luisa Barreto (PSDB): 0%
Fabiano Cazeca (PROS): 0%
Wanderson Rocha (PSTU): 0%
Marcelo Souza e Silva (Patriota): 0%

Recife
João Campos (PSB): 33%
Mendonça Filho (DEM): 18%
Marília Arraes (PT): 14%
Delegada Patrícia (Podemos): 13%
Claudia Ribeiro (PSTU): 1%
Coronel Feitosa (PSC): 1%
Marco Aurélio Meu Amigo (PRTB): 1%
Carlos (PSL): 1%

[Red Velvet]

Burrito, why don’t you like Benedita Da Silva?

I think I was the one who ranked her somewhat low in my preferences, behind Eduardo Paes. My problem with Benedita is more her party than her properly.

I think PT just lost the “authority” it used to have to talk about most issues and doesn’t have that big appeal it used to have anymore. They represented change and hope in the 90s, in the 00s they represented progress and stability, nowadays it’s more like they don’t have a message.

It’s not that I dislike them, they just don’t excite me anymore. The only thing they have is goodwill from Lula years and that tends to diminish every passing year. In that sense, both DEM and PT are establishment parties I feel mostly meh about. So in the end I opt for Eduardo Paes because of safety, he is that well-known devil that you at least know is hard working and efficient even with lots of flaws.

PSOL in some ways represents hope to me even if they need to be more organized and united internally. I also really like Ciro Gomes ideas for the country and therefore I lean to support PDT more these days. 2018 was first time I didn’t vote PT for president, shifting to PDT on the first round (eventually had to vote PT on the second one).

I always vote for PSOL in legislative elections because they’re an important dissenting voice that I wish would be stronger. For the executive seats it depends, sometimes I vote for PSOL for Governor and Mayor if the option is Marcelo Freixo or if there aren’t any other good options at all. But I always tended to opt mostly for more competitive left parties in those executive ones, like PT and now PDT. But I also supported Gabeira (Green Party) for mayor in 2008 and voted for Eduardo Paes (DEM, center-right) for Governor in 2018.

In Rio, Governor races are the worst ones because you usually feel like you don’t want to vote for anyone lol. Presidential and Mayoral ones are usually more exciting because you at least feel you have options to be happy about supporting.

[Niemeyerite]

As a staunch PT supporter, I'm encouraging people around me to vote 13 up and down the ballot almost everywhere, but I cannot do it for SP. It's amazing how even the biggest PT hacks in Haddad and Lula Facebook accounts are telling them how big an error it was not to support Boulos from the beginning.

In Rio, OTOH, I feel like Paes will be mayor no matter what (big improvement considering who's in charge now) but I'd vote for Benedita. I feel she has the best platform and profile to start rebuilding the left in Rio right now. A pity Freixo decided to give up, but honestly I don't blame him.

And BH, the city where most of my family lives in, is going to be very boring. Khalil has been surprisingly effective and he'll be in in power as long as he wants to, or until he decides he wants to be Governor -and he'd win-. I'd vote PT or PSOL anyway but I'm not taking the effort to convince people around me here.

[buritobr]

Interesting analisis written by journalist Leonardo Sakamoto about the election in São Paulo. Jilmar Tatto can help, and not harm, Guilherme Boulos. The PT candidate can steal low income voters from Russomano. Many low income voters do not care about left/right scale. They have already voted for Maluf and for Marta for mayor. They have already voted for Lula and for Bolsonaro for president. They can either vote for Russomano, endorsed by Bolsonaro, and for Tatto, endorsed by Lula. Tatto is already polling better than Boulos in the group of voters who earn less than 1 minimum wage.
https://noticias.uol.com.br/colunas/leonardo-sakamoto/2020/10/16/tatto-pode-desidratar-russomanno-e-empurrar-boulos-para-o-2-turno.htm?fbclid=IwAR05rxyUAFawjOe_VXL8JZQcaGmYUC_WgtUvr3MIpcy_avhEw_a4IGFvUSk

Guilherme Boulos, leader of the Movement of Homeless Workers (MTST), became a member of PSOL only in 2017. PSOL leaders, like Ivan Valente and Marcelo Freixo, considered that Boulos would help PSOL to get closer to the low class. PSOL is the party of the middle class left: its main base has university professors and students, public sector employees and artists. This goal was not achieved. Boulos is polling well, but only in the middle class, not in the low class.

[Red Velvet]

Indeed, PT’s success with lower income people is something other left parties should look up to. It’s impossible to have a broad front without PT because no one has such builted trust with such important demographic. PDT does well but not nearly as much and PSOL is still seen as an “elite” party.

It’s interesting how the party makes such an important difference. If Boulos ran in the PT, I think the demographics of his vote would significantly change. The appeal he has with upper middle class and high-education voters mirrors way too much Freixo here in 2016, who always struggled to get accepted by other different demographics of voters.

[buritobr]

Indeed, PT’s success with lower income people is something other left parties should look up to. It’s impossible to have a broad front without PT because no one has such builted trust with such important demographic. PDT does well but not nearly as much and PSOL is still seen as an “elite” party.

It’s interesting how the party makes such an important difference. If Boulos ran in the PT, I think the demographics of his vote would significantly change. The appeal he has with upper middle class and high-education voters mirrors way too much Freixo here in 2016, who always struggled to get accepted by other different demographics of voters.

Sure. Marta Suplicy and Fernando Haddad were not that kind of good fit for low-income voters, but they had low-income voters because they were PT candidates

[buritobr]

Datafolha Polls, October 22nd

São Paulo
Bruno Covas (PSDB): 23%
Celso Russomanno (Republicanos): 20%
Guilherme Boulos (PSOL): 14%
Márcio França (PSB): 10%
Arthur do Val - Mamãe Falei (Patriota): 4%
Jilmar Tatto (PT): 4%
Joice Hasselmann (PSL): 3%
Andrea Matarazzo (PSD): 2%
Levy Fidelix (PRTB): 1%
Marina Helou (Rede): 1%
Orlando Silva (PCdoB): 1%
Vera Lúcia (PSTU): 1%

Runoff scenarios
Bruno Covas 48% x 36% Celso Russomanno (branco/nulo: 14%; não sabe: 1%)

Rio de Janeiro
Eduardo Paes (DEM): 28%
Crivella (Republicanos): 13%
Martha Rocha (PDT): 13%
Benedita da Silva (PT): 10%
Renata Souza (PSOL): 5%
Luiz Lima (PSL): 4%
Bandeira de Mello (Rede): 3%
Cyro Garcia (PSTU): 1%
Clarissa Garotinho (Pros): 1%
Fred Luz (Novo): 1%
Glória Heloiza (PSC): 1%

Runoff scenarios
Eduardo Paes 52% x 22% Crivella (branco/nulo: 25%; não sabe: 2%)
Marta Rocha 45% x 41% Eduardo Paes (branco/nulo: 13%; não sabe: 1%)
Eduardo Paes 48% x 30% Benedita da Silva (branco/nulo: 21%; não sabe: 1%)

Good news: In São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, the 3 leftist candidates increased, and the "Republicanos" candidates decreased.

Bad news: Far-right candidates like Artur Mamãefalei (São Paulo) and Luiz Lima (Rio de Janeiro) reached 4% and they can grow even more

[Red Velvet]

Rejection for that last DataFolha poll in Rio (% who says wouldn’t vote for that candidate):

Marcelo Crivella: 58%
Eduardo Paes: 31%
Clarissa Garotinho: 31%
Benedita da Silva: 27%
Cyro Garcia: 15%
Luiz Lima: 11%
Paulo Messina: 10%
Bandeira de Mello: 9%
Fred Luz: 9%
Renata Souza: 8%
Sued (candidate with 0% vote intention): 8%
Glória Heloiza: 8%
Henrique Simonard (candidate with 0% vote intention): 7%
Martha Rocha: 7%
Rejects everyone: 6%
Doesn’t reject anyone: 1%

My unrejected girl Martha Rocha is the only chance Rio has to not have an Eduardo Paes THIRD term and she’s tied in second place with the devil.

I am really scared about Luiz Lima being a Witzel 2.0 though. I hope the left eventually unites under one single candidate in the end if he manages to grow more and be a threat to reach 2nd place.

Gosh, these elections will be the end of me. It’s one thing to get terrible stuff when it’s expected, another much cruel one is to have hope just to be crushed later. I hope Martha and PDT keeps this upward trajectory. Happy the other left female candidates also ticked up while Crivella goes down.

[buritobr]

Yes, Luiz Lima can increase his performance because he can take most of the Crivella's votes and go to ~15%. Crivella don't make all the bolsominions excited because he was an ally of Lula, Dilma, Lindberg, Cabral and Paes in the past. Bolsonaro has a positive evaluation of ~35% in Rio de Janeiro.

Until now, the left-wing famous artists, like Chico Buarque, Caetano Veloso, Gilberto Gil, Bela Gil, Wagner Moura, Leticia Sabatella, Sonia Braga, Fernanda Montenegro and Gregorio Duvivier are silent about the Rio campaign. They are supporting Boulos in São Paulo and Manuela in Porto Alegre. Maybe, they participate in the campaign in the last week. Many of them usually support PSOL, but since Renata Souza is not polling well, maybe they endorse Martha or Benedita. If these artists have an influence in something like 3% of the voters, their decision of whom they will support can put one of them in the runoff.

[Red Velvet]

Yes, Luiz Lima can increase his performance because he can take most of the Crivella's votes and go to ~15%. Crivella don't make all the bolsominions excited because he was an ally of Lula, Dilma, Lindberg, Cabral and Paes in the past. Bolsonaro has a positive evaluation of ~35% in Rio de Janeiro.

Until now, the left-wing famous artists, like Chico Buarque, Caetano Veloso, Gilberto Gil, Bela Gil, Wagner Moura, Leticia Sabatella, Sonia Braga, Fernanda Montenegro and Gregorio Duvivier are silent about the Rio campaign. They are supporting Boulos in São Paulo and Manuela in Porto Alegre. Maybe, they participate in the campaign in the last week. Many of them usually support PSOL, but since Renata Souza is not polling well, maybe they endorse Martha or Benedita. If these artists have an influence in something like 3% of the voters, their decision of whom they will support can put one of them in the runoff.

These artists were the ones pressuring for Freixo to run even after Renata had been confirmed...

I think with the lack of Freixo these people just don’t have a passionate choice in Rio and will just stay quieter. Some will go to Martha as the “pragmatic” center-left choice that can win, others who want more traditional “left“ credentials will go to Benedita and possibly some passionate PSOL voters will stay with Renata too. I think they would be very divided as a whole.

But who are we kidding, Rio 2020 is basically a Ciro vs Haddad re-match for the spot in the runoff, with outside scary chances that Luiz Lima could get it as well.

São Paulo 2020 meanwhile is giving me a less tragic version of Rio 2016 vibes. I think 2nd round will be Covas (PSDB) vs Boulos (PSOL) and like Freixo, Boulos would probably lose. His rejection is currently on par with Covas but if memory serves me right, Crivella also was strongly rejected in 2016, as much as Freixo when campaign started. But rejection for PSOL tends to grow in some places during 2nd round due to far-left scare.

[buritobr]

Other Datafolha Polls

Belo Horizonte
Kalil (PSD): 60%
João Vitor Xavier (Cidadania): 7%
Áurea Carolina (Psol): 5%
Bruno Engler (PRTB): 3%
Nilmário Miranda (PT): 2%

Incumbent mayor Kalil has very high approval rate and he will be reelected easily. He is not identified with the left or the right

Recife
João Campos (PSB): 31%
Marília Arraes (PT): 18%
Delegada Patrícia (Podemos): 16%
Mendonça Filho (DEM): 15%

There is a dispute between two important center-left families from the state of Pernambuco: Campos and Arraes. Both families are connected with each other. Former governor Eduardo Campos, who was running for president and died from a plane crash during the 2014 campaign was the grandson of famous politician Miguel Arraes.

[buritobr]

Bruno Covas has low approval rate and in normal situations he would loose the reelection. But he has the runoff advantage, because he is neither left nor Bolsonaro. If he run against Russomano, some low-income voters who have already voted for Lula and Dilma could vote for Russomano, but the ideological leftist voters will vote for Covas. If Covas run against Boulos, he will have the vote of the right.

[buritobr]

Demographics according to Datafolha

São Paulo

Total: Covas 23%, Russomano 20%, Boulos 14%, França 10%, Tatto 4%, Mamãefalei 4%

Gender
Male: Covas 20%, Russomano 20%, Boulos 15%, França 12%, Tatto 4%, Mamãefalei 7%
Female: Covas 26%, Russomano 19%, Boulos 13%, França 8%, Tatto 4%, Mamãefalei 2%

Age
16-24: Covas 12%, Russomano 20%, Boulos 27%, França 9%, Tatto 3%, Mamãefalei 7%
25-34: Covas 23%, Russomano 17%, Boulos 15%, França 10%, Tatto 4%, Mamãefalei 8%
35-44: Covas 24%, Russomano 19%, Boulos 16%, França 9%, Tatto 4%, Mamãefalei 4%
45-59: Covas 23%, Russomano 22%, Boulos 11%, França 12%, Tatto 5%, Mamãefalei 3%
60-: Covas 30%, Russomano 19%, Boulos 7%, França 7%, Tatto 5%, Mamãefalei 2%

Education
Elementary: Covas 28%, Russomano 26%, Boulos 4%, França 6%, Tatto 6%, Mamãefalei 2%
High School: Covas 21%, Russomano 24%, Boulos 11%, França 11%, Tatto 4%, Mamãefalei 3%
College: Covas 23%, Russomano 9%, Boulos 25%, França 11%, Tatto 4%, Mamãefalei 8%

Income
<2 MW: Covas 22%, Russomano 25%, Boulos 9%, França 7%, Tatto 6%, Mamãefalei 2%
2-5 MW: Covas 23%, Russomano 17%, Boulos 16%, França 12%, Tatto 4%, Mamãefalei 5%
5-10 MW: Covas 26%, Russomano 10%, Boulos 20%, França 12%, Tatto 3%, Mamãefalei 10%
>10 MW: Covas 25%, Russomano 9%, Boulos 28%, França 6%, Tatto 2%, Mamãefalei 5%

Race
White: Covas 25%, Russomano 19%, Boulos 16%, França 8%, Tatto 4%, Mamãefalei 5%
Pardo: Covas 22%, Russomano 22%, Boulos 11%, França 11%, Tatto 6%, Mamãefalei 3%
Black: Covas 21%, Russomano 16%, Boulos 18%, França 10%, Tatto 4%, Mamãefalei 4%
Asian: Covas 38%, Russomano 15%, Boulos 12%, França 10%, Tatto 8%, Mamãefalei 7%

Religion
Catholic: Covas 30%, Russomano 14%, Boulos 11%, França 11%, Tatto 5%, Mamãefalei 4%
Evangelic: Covas 20%, Russomano 31%, Boulos 6%, França 10%, Tatto 5%, Mamãefalei 3%

Partisan preference
PT: Covas 16%, Russomano 18%, Boulos 23%, França 8%, Tatto 20%, Mamãefalei 1%
PSDB: Covas 56%, Russomano 23%, Boulos 6%, França 8%, Tatto 0%, Mamãefalei 0%

Comments: Although PSDB is considered an elitist party, Covas performs almost the same in all income levels. PSOL candidate Boulos and also far-right candidate Mamãefalei poll better in the group of higher income voters. They also poll better in the group of young voters. Until now, Boulos has only 23% of the PT voters, so, he has space to grow even more!

[buritobr]

Rio de Janeiro

Total: Paes 28%, Martha 13%, Crivella 13%, Benedita 10%, Renata 5%, Lima 4%, Bandeira 3%

Gender
Male: Paes 25%, Martha 12%, Crivella 17%, Benedita 7%, Renata 5%, Lima 4%, Bandeira 5%
Female: Paes 30%, Martha 13%, Crivella 9%, Benedita 12%, Renata 5%, Lima 4%, Bandeira 0%

Age
16-24: Paes 24%, Martha 8%, Crivella 17%, Benedita 15%, Renata 11%, Lima 2%, Bandeira 3%
25-34: Paes 21%, Martha 12%, Crivella 11%, Benedita 14%, Renata 9%, Lima 6%, Bandeira 4%
35-44: Paes 27%, Martha 12%, Crivella 13%, Benedita 10%, Renata 5%, Lima 4%, Bandeira 4%
45-59: Paes 28%, Martha 16%, Crivella 13%, Benedita 6%, Renata 3%, Lima 3%, Bandeira 2%
60-: Paes 35%, Martha 13%, Crivella 12%, Benedita 8%, Renata 2%, Lima 5%, Bandeira 1%

Education
Elementary: Paes 32%, Martha 10%, Crivella 16%, Benedita 9%,Renata 1%,Lima 4%,Bandeira 1%
HighSchool: Paes 25%, Martha 15%, Crivella 15%, Benedita 8%, Renata 3%,Lima 3%,Bandeira 3%
College: Paes 29%, Martha 12%, Crivella 7%, Benedita 12%, Renata 11%, Lima 5%, Bandeira 3%

Income
<2 MW: Paes 25%, Martha 14%, Crivella 14%, Benedita 13%, Renata 2%, Lima 4%, Bandeira 1%
2-5 MW: Paes 31%, Martha 13%, Crivella 13%, Benedita 7%, Renata 7%, Lima 4%, Bandeira 4%
5-10 MW: Paes 27%, Martha 11%, Crivella 6%, Benedita 8%, Renata 9%, Lima 5%, Bandeira 4%
>10 MW: Paes 31, Martha 10%, Crivella 11%, Benedita 10%, Renata 8%, Lima 3%, Bandeira 0%

Race
White: Paes 30%, Martha 13%, Crivella 11%, Benedita 8%, Renata 7%, Lima 6%, Bandeira 2%
Pardo: Paes 26%, Martha 13%, Crivella 13%, Benedita 10%, Renata 4%, Lima 3%, Bandeira 4%
Black: Paes 29%, Martha 10%, Crivella 11%, Benedita 12%, Renata 7%, Lima 3%, Bandeira 3%

Religion
Catholic: Paes 36%, Martha 16%, Crivella 7%, Benedita 8%, Renata 3%, Lima 5%, Bandeira 3%
Evangelic: Paes 23%, Martha 10%, Crivella 28%, Benedita 6%, Renata 1%, Lima 3%, Bandeira 2%

Partisan preference
PT: Paes 32%, Martha 10%, Crivella 4%, Benedita 36%, Renata 1%, Lima 2%, Bandeira 1%
PSOL: Paes 22%, Martha 10%, Crivella 1%, Benedita 12%, Renata 44%, Lima 0%, Bandeira 2%

Comments: Candidates don't have too big differences in income groups. I only highlight that while the sum of the candidates of the progressive camp (Martha Rocha + Benedita da Silva + Renata Souza + Bandeira de Mello) is 31% in the group of total voters, this sum is 38% in the group of voters who have college degree. There is the obvious differences in the vote for Crivella according to religious groups. And considering that Benedita has only 36% in the group of PT voters and Renata has 44% in the group of PSOL voters, they have space to grow. According to this poll, 32% of PT voters are willing to vote for Eduardo Paes!

[Red Velvet]

Things are heating up in Rio. All main candidates supporters are interested in weakening Martha Rocha. Last polls really lighted a desperation fire in some people’s asses. It’s Martha vs the world.

Eduardo Paes has her as target because she’s the only option that currently wins over him on the runoff, he would rather run against someone with no chances like Crivella. It would be an extremely hard hit on the career of someone who was expected to win Governor in 2018 but was swallowed by the far-right wave, to now lose a smaller seat like mayor against a “new” option, now more center-left.

Crivella is being humiliated by being an incumbent kicked out of the runoff, which would likely kill his political career for executive offices in the future. I don’t see how he recovers from this, he will probably have to run for a legislative state seat in 2022. His and Eduardo Paes campaign will focus on Martha following next days according to the news.

PT and PSOL most partisan hacks are trying to find the most purist arguments against her that they themselves don’t follow to use in social media as well. Stuff like her working for the police means she is conservative (when PT also has “Delegada” candidates spread on other municipalities) or fake news in general. This is mostly fight for political power in the left though, a victory for Martha in an important city like Rio is seen by some as a victory for Ciro Gomes and his 2022 project. And PDT isn’t liked by the most strongly loyalist PT or PSOL voters who identify themselves with the “purist left” speech even though when their own leaders don’t follow it they excuse it as “pragmatism” or “working towards governability”.

That won’t be a fight you will see in São Paulo, where Boulos is the left option who is ahead. PT sectors are more sympathetic to his name due to his association with Lula, even if they aren’t necessarily friendly to PSOL, which is also considered a threat to PT hegemony of the left. I’ve actually seen some PT supporter accusing PSOL (!!!!) of working for the far-right to divide the left because they take away votes from PT lmao. PSOL on the other hand tends to be friendly with PT nowadays though.

[buritobr]

In a previous post, I mentioned that the famous people were silent about the election in Rio de Janeiro.
Last weekend, a lot of famous people endorsed Benedita da Silva. They signed a manifesto
https://beneditadorio.com.br/manifesto/
The list included Chico Buarque, Gregório Duvivier, Teresa Cristina, Paulo Betti, José de Abreu, Ziraldo, Martinho da Vila, Wagner Moura, Kleber Mendonça Filho etc

This kind of endorsement can help to create a bandwagon effect. People who have doubt between voting for Martha Rocha or Benedita da Silva because they have doubt about who can perform better than Crivella can feel safer to vote for Benedita.

It is better for Benedita that she has a surge in the polls only in the final week, so that there is no enough time to become target of negative propaganda