Brazil Municipal Elections (November 15th, November 29th, 2020)

[Red Velvet]

In my section/precinct (which kinda leans to upper middle class) things went like this:

1. Eduardo Paes (DEM) - 38,8%
2. Martha Rocha (PDT) - 17,7%
3. Benedita da Silva (PT) - 12,0%
3. Crivella (Rep)- 12,0%
5. Luiz Lima (PSL) - 8,6%
6. Renata Souza (PSOL) - 4,6%
6. Fred Luz (NOVO) - 4,6%
8. Bandeira de Mello (REDE) - 1,1%
9. Paulo Messina (MDB) - 0,6%

On the neighboring one to mine it was this:

1. Eduardo Paes (DEM) - 42,7%
2. Martha Rocha (PDT) - 20,5%
3. Benedita da Silva (PT) - 14,9%
4. Crivella (Rep) - 6,0%
5. Fred Luz (NOVO) - 5,1%
6. Renata Souza (PSOL) - 4,3%
7. Bandeira de Mello (REDE) - 3,0%
8. Luiz Lima (PSL) - 2,6%
9. Paulo Messina (MDB) - 0,8%

Considering it’s more upper middle class than average Rio, it’s unfavorable to Crivella so I expect final numbers for him to be much higher, bumped by evangelical groups concentrated in poorer areas. I do think the last minute poll is right that he will overperform.

Also, based on my precinct demographics, I expected higher numbers for Renata Souza (PSOL) and lower numbers for Benedita (PT), which to me evidences a good number of Psol voters changed in last minute to Benedita.

The NOVO “overperformance” in my sector is totally expected though. Their final numbers will be much closer to ZERO once you count all the city votes and include less elite areas.

Happy for Boulos overperformance in São Paulo! It’s absolutely crazy that São Paulo is now to the left of Rio but they didn’t have an extremely divided left destroying each other and also Evangelical church hasn’t brainwashed people there in the same level they accomplished in some areas of Rio.

Seriously, I can’t believe I want to move to freaking São Paulo now, of all places. That’s the trashy level Rio has gotten.

[Mike88]

Also, based on my precinct demographics, I expected higher numbers for Renata Souza (PSOL) and lower numbers for Benedita (PT), which to me evidences a good number of Psol voters changed in last minute to Benedita.

The NOVO “overperformance” in my sector is totally expected though. Their final numbers will be much closer to ZERO once you count all the city votes and include less elite areas.

Happy for Boulos overperformance in São Paulo! It’s absolutely crazy that São Paulo is now to the left of Rio but they didn’t have an extremely divided left destroying each other and also Evangelical church hasn’t brainwashed people there in the same level they accomplished in some areas of Rio.

Seriously, I can’t believe I want to move to freaking São Paulo now, of all places. That’s the trashy level Rio has gotten.

Yes, very strong numbers in favour of PSOL all across the country. It seems that many leftwing voters are shifting towards PSOL while PT is basically being tossed into the garbabe. Maybe there will an realignment on the left in the 2024 elections similar of what happened in the right in 2018.

Few votes counted yet, however.

[Mike88]

Few votes counted yet, however.

Ah, just saw that the election reporting system is crashing.

[buritobr]

Slow counting. We should not make jokes about US election anymore

[Mike88]

Slow counting. We should not make jokes about US election anymore

The electoral court says they have the results but the issue is putting them in the system and release them.

[Mike88]

In Belém city and Curitiba city, the count is basically finish:

Belém (PA)

34.2% PSOL
23.1% PATRIOTA
17.0% MDB
  8.1% CIDADANIA
  6.9% PSB
  6.8% REPUBLICANOS
  3.2% PSD

Curitiba (PR)

59.8% DEM
13.3% PDT
  6.3% PSL
  4.8% NOVO
  3.9% PL
  2.7% PODE
  2.6% MDB
  2.5% PT
  2.2% AVANTE

[Mike88]

More votes counted in Rio, 30%:

37.4% DEM
21.0% REPUBLICANOS
11.7% PT
11.4% PDT
  6.8% PSL
  3.4% PSOL
  2.8% MDB
  2.5% REDE
  1.8% NOVO

PT surges to 3rd place, so far.

[buritobr]

In the precint I worked, there were 334 voters, 180 voted, 170 casted valid votes: 62 for Eduardo Paes, 29 for Martha Rocha, 28 for Benedita da Silva, 17 for Crivela, 8 for Renata Rouza. This precint is located in Flamengo, a middle-upper-class neighborhood. It is still frightening Crivela had 10% there, considering he used to be almost zero in the southern zone. However, most of the voters of this precint were old voters, so, probably, the vote for Paes and Crivela there was higher than the average of Flamengo

[Mike88]

In the precint I worked, there were 334 voters, 180 voted, 170 casted valid votes: 62 for Eduardo Paes, 29 for Martha Rocha, 28 for Benedita da Silva, 17 for Crivela, 8 for Renata Rouza. This precint is located in Flamengo, a middle-upper-class neighborhood. It is still frightening Crivela had 10% there, considering he used to be almost zero in the southern zone. However, most of the voters of this precint were old voters, so, probably, the vote for Paes and Crivela there was higher than the average of Flamengo

Very low turnout, I thought voting was mandatory.

[Mike88]

Looking at the nationwide results, counted so far, MDB may be the most voted party, but PSDB will lose a lot of votes and fall bellow the 3rd place or more. PSD, DEM and PSOL, and also PSB, could increase a lot compared with their 2016 results. PT is an utter disaster.

[buritobr]

Voting is mandatory. But it is very easy for people who didn't vote to "justificar" in the Internet. The share of blank and nullified votes was very low. So, I think that voters who were planning to nulify their votes decided to stay at home because of the pandemic.

[Red Velvet]

Also, based on my precinct demographics, I expected higher numbers for Renata Souza (PSOL) and lower numbers for Benedita (PT), which to me evidences a good number of Psol voters changed in last minute to Benedita.

The NOVO “overperformance” in my sector is totally expected though. Their final numbers will be much closer to ZERO once you count all the city votes and include less elite areas.

Happy for Boulos overperformance in São Paulo! It’s absolutely crazy that São Paulo is now to the left of Rio but they didn’t have an extremely divided left destroying each other and also Evangelical church hasn’t brainwashed people there in the same level they accomplished in some areas of Rio.

Seriously, I can’t believe I want to move to freaking São Paulo now, of all places. That’s the trashy level Rio has gotten.

Yes, very strong numbers in favour of PSOL all across the country. It seems that many leftwing voters are shifting towards PSOL while PT is basically being tossed into the garbabe. Maybe there will an realignment on the left in the 2024 elections similar of what happened in the right in 2018.

Few votes counted yet, however.

That’s basically it lol.

Yet PT people and their staunch supporters will still swear they can win now all by themselves, they’re in complete delusion and refuse to acknowledge that they lost space within the population (not just the neoliberal elites lmao) and it’s not only because of the dirty schemes against them in the last years. Even if the party was targeted by the elites, they failed people as well.

PT used to be my favorite party during Lula and Dilma years and nowadays I find myself much more represented by PSOL (which represents to me the hope PT did in the past) and Ciro Gomes from PDT (who focus on proposals like PT used to do, not the empty rhetoric and cult of personality they do now).

I feel sad to see PT being destroyed but everytime one of their supporters call people like me “caviar revolutionary left” for voting PSOL or the opposite “not really left wing, you’re center-right” for voting PDT, I get more confident that their self-destruction is necessary for any left-wing have oxygen to be viable (be a communist one or a centrist, I want what is possible to defeat the right).

It’s too early to call PT dead though. They’re still strong in the Northeast (look at Recife numbers!) and their base that evaporated the most is in the center-south, in places where they were originally born. PT will still be very influential in 2022, for better or worse.

From this election it’s also interesting to look at DEM success. I feel like DEM represents the strongest center-right now, something that was the job of PSDB in the past.

DEM is bad but if they represent the right-wing shift from a Bolsonaro scenario to a more moderate one, I’m fine with their success! Could’ve been much worse if we stayed on a Bolsonaro dominated right.

Btw, things are not looking good for Manuela’s prospects on the Porto Alegre runoff with that close margin.

[buritobr]

It will be very hard for Edmílson (PSOL) in Belém too

[Mike88]

Also, based on my precinct demographics, I expected higher numbers for Renata Souza (PSOL) and lower numbers for Benedita (PT), which to me evidences a good number of Psol voters changed in last minute to Benedita.

The NOVO “overperformance” in my sector is totally expected though. Their final numbers will be much closer to ZERO once you count all the city votes and include less elite areas.

Happy for Boulos overperformance in São Paulo! It’s absolutely crazy that São Paulo is now to the left of Rio but they didn’t have an extremely divided left destroying each other and also Evangelical church hasn’t brainwashed people there in the same level they accomplished in some areas of Rio.

Seriously, I can’t believe I want to move to freaking São Paulo now, of all places. That’s the trashy level Rio has gotten.

Yes, very strong numbers in favour of PSOL all across the country. It seems that many leftwing voters are shifting towards PSOL while PT is basically being tossed into the garbabe. Maybe there will an realignment on the left in the 2024 elections similar of what happened in the right in 2018.

Few votes counted yet, however.

That’s basically it lol.

Yet PT people and their staunch supporters will still swear they can win now all by themselves, they’re in complete delusion and refuse to acknowledge that they lost space within the population (not just the neoliberal elites lmao) and it’s not only because of the dirty schemes against them in the last years. Even if the party was targeted by the elites, they failed people as well.

PT used to be my favorite party during Lula and Dilma years and nowadays I find myself much more represented by PSOL (which represents to me the hope PT did in the past) and Ciro Gomes from PDT (who focus on proposals like PT used to do, not the empty rhetoric and cult of personality they do now).

I feel sad to see PT being destroyed but everytime one of their supporters call people like me “caviar revolutionary left” for voting PSOL or the opposite “not really left wing, you’re center-right” for voting PDT, I get more confident that their self-destruction is necessary for any left-wing have oxygen to be viable (be a communist one or a centrist, I want what is possible to defeat the right).

It’s too early to call PT dead though. They’re still strong in the Northeast (look at Recife numbers!) and their base that evaporated the most is in the center-south, in places where they were originally born. PT will still be very influential in 2022, for better or worse.

From this election it’s also interesting to look at DEM success. I feel like DEM represents the strongest center-right now, something that was the job of PSDB in the past.

DEM is bad but if they represent the right-wing shift from a Bolsonaro scenario to a more moderate one, I’m fine with their success! Could’ve been much worse if we stayed on a Bolsonaro dominated right.

Btw, things are not looking good for Manuela’s prospects on the Porto Alegre runoff with that close margin.

It's interesting that the two former main parties of the "centrão" are becoming more and more irrelevant. PSD is also a center-right party, right? They seem, like DEM, to be doing very well.

Voting is mandatory. But it is very easy for people who didn't vote to "justificar" in the Internet. The share of blank and nullified votes was very low. So, I think that voters who were planning to nulify their votes decided to stay at home because of the pandemic.

Interesting. Do you think turnout will be low, maybe below 70%?

[Mike88]

PSDB still dominates in Mato Grosso do Sul.

REPUBLICANOS aren't leading in any city, so far.

[Mike88]

Btw, things are not looking good for Manuela’s prospects on the Porto Alegre runoff with that close margin.

Yes. She's currently just at 30%, but the right combined has more than 50%. She may not be reelected in the 2nd round. (I'm assuming the MDB will congregate the rightwing vote, of course)

[PSOL]

How is PCdoB doing in all this?

[Mike88]

How is PCdoB doing in all this?

So far, with my count, they're leading in 30 or some cities. But Manuela is performing very badly and could lose in the 2nd round.

[Niemeyerite]

I'm starting to get worried. Why is it taking so long for the results to be released??

[PSOL]

I'm starting to get worried. Why is it taking so long for the results to be released??

At this point, at this very point, you should know why.

[Mike88]

I'm starting to get worried. Why is it taking so long for the results to be released??

This year they concentrated all the results in the TSE headquarters in Brasilia and the system crashed, although they are receiving all of the results. They seem to be solving the issue as more results are being announced but the problem isn't 100% resolved yet.

[Red Velvet]

One thing about Rio de Janeiro: Freixo was already getting 2nd place with PSOL in 2012 and 2016, when PSOL had no expression anywhere else.

PSOL was practically born in Rio, which historically has its strongest base. To see it doing that well everywhere but not as much as it could have been in Rio just because Freixo chose not to run makes me mad. Just imagined how Freixo would have done if he didn’t act weak in front of PT and PDT.

All the left in Rio would have united and rallied behind Freixo if he ran, we wouldn’t get this distressing Martha vs Benedita thing and Crivella would have been history at this point already.

I’m really pissed at Rio’s PSOL for the missed opportunity. Look at what the city is with now. Freixo would’ve been doing as good as Boulos, if not more.

Freixo should have run.

[Red Velvet]

Ok, news are saying that apparently they tried to attack the TSE system from places in Brazil, United States and New Zealand.

Some foreign people got really jealous about our system being better than theirs and are trying to demoralize it lmao. Also Bolsominions are probably trying to rob too since they predictably got destroyed in these elections.

[Mike88]

The media is becoming desperate for results...

[Mike88]

Finally, more results from São Paulo, 37.8% in:

32.8% PSDB
20.3% PSOL
13.7% PSB
10.5% REPUBLICANOS
  9.7% PATRIOTA
  8.7% PT
  1.8% PSL
  1.6% PSD