There is zero historical precedent for trends being so uniform over decades as a lot of you predict. The parties will change and/or the size of states will change and/or the makeup of states will change. Illinois, Virginia, California, Georgia, Vermont, Colorado, etc. are literally unrecognizable from even 30 years ago, and you're willing to make bets on how our current states will vote decades from now? I get predicting is fun, but this is asinine. Neither party will let itself die, and no that isn't said with some ignorance that party leaders can control their voters. When parties lose enough, they NATURALLY reset. If you think we are going to see the heir of Donald Trump except with even MORE Rust Belt appeal vs. the heir of Hillary Clinton except with even MORE college grad appeal in literally 30 years from now, you have a very basic misunderstanding of statistics, demographics, population trends and political history.
Predicting 2020 and 2024 and even 2028 results based on what's happening now is one thing. Treating parties, states and coalitions as relatively stagnant and just applying accelerated existing trends to them out decades into the future is just dumb.
This.
Pretty much every day leading up to the '16 election, someone on this board proclaimed that since demographics were destiny, Clinton couldn't lose, and then she did. Or on the flip side, I remember leading up to '12, there were people starting threads here who seriously predicted that Obama would lose the PV but still win the EC since it was Dem-advantaged (remember all those blue firewall threads? LOL).
The reality is that the EC (and the areas of power for each party) will fluctuate year-by-year, depending on the circumstances. The EC may have looked R-advantaged in '16, but it could switch back suddenly and easily, and vice versa. Who knows.
Every cycle on this forum, I'm promised that
this is the year the great millennial revolution will occur and the country will transform to this grand socialist utopia from sea to sea, one woke nation under climate science. And then, for a myriad of reasons (one being, of course, that leftist millennials are not geographically diverse and are heavily concentrated in like 2 states), something happens like what happened 2 days ago.. and the Dem party goes ahead and chooses Biden as their nominee.
Well, I guess not this year then! But surely 2024!.... 2028?
2032 at the latest folks, I promise you!
I'm not bashing millennials. I am one (albeit an older one). But I am bashing those without historical perspective, which sadly, is probably most of this forum.
