Will the electoral map become more progressively difficult for the republicans?
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  Will the electoral map become more progressively difficult for the republicans?
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Author Topic: Will the electoral map become more progressively difficult for the republicans?  (Read 1058 times)
iceman
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« on: March 02, 2020, 03:25:40 PM »

Will the electoral map become more progressively difficult or the republicans over the next few decades?

Texas seems to be on the brink of being a powerful swing state now and most of the biggest states doesn't seems to show any movements to the GOP in the foreseeable future like New York, California and Illinois. Will this built-in advantage of the DEMs suggest a more tenuous climb for any GOP candidates in the next elections?
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QAnonKelly
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« Reply #1 on: March 03, 2020, 01:18:20 PM »

I think we're headed towards a decade of D presidents once TX goes, the question is when that is. If Trump wins this year, it'll vote for the D in '24 imo. The math just isn't there for the GOP to win when the presidency with it D for the time being.
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Grassroots
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« Reply #2 on: March 03, 2020, 02:59:10 PM »

I think we're headed towards a decade of D presidents once TX goes, the question is when that is. If Trump wins this year, it'll vote for the D in '24 imo. The math just isn't there for the GOP to win when the presidency with it D for the time being.

The GOP is going to start owning the rust belt and great lakes states, including MN. That, with FL being increasingly republican, makes up for TX.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #3 on: March 03, 2020, 03:44:39 PM »

I think we're headed towards a decade of D presidents once TX goes, the question is when that is. If Trump wins this year, it'll vote for the D in '24 imo. The math just isn't there for the GOP to win when the presidency with it D for the time being.

The GOP is going to start owning the rust belt and great lakes states, including MN. That, with FL being increasingly republican, makes up for TX.
But then add in Georgia and Arizona, with North Carolina being the ultimate Southern bellwether.
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Grassroots
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« Reply #4 on: March 03, 2020, 05:03:26 PM »

I think we're headed towards a decade of D presidents once TX goes, the question is when that is. If Trump wins this year, it'll vote for the D in '24 imo. The math just isn't there for the GOP to win when the presidency with it D for the time being.

The GOP is going to start owning the rust belt and great lakes states, including MN. That, with FL being increasingly republican, makes up for TX.
But then add in Georgia and Arizona, with North Carolina being the ultimate Southern bellwether.


Then add in NH, ME, Rhode Island, and eventually Illinois.
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QAnonKelly
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« Reply #5 on: March 04, 2020, 12:45:29 PM »

I think we're headed towards a decade of D presidents once TX goes, the question is when that is. If Trump wins this year, it'll vote for the D in '24 imo. The math just isn't there for the GOP to win when the presidency with it D for the time being.

The GOP is going to start owning the rust belt and great lakes states, including MN. That, with FL being increasingly republican, makes up for TX.
But then add in Georgia and Arizona, with North Carolina being the ultimate Southern bellwether.


Then add in NH, ME, Rhode Island, and eventually Illinois.

Yeah but all those places are bleeding EVs
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Nyvin
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« Reply #6 on: March 04, 2020, 01:55:46 PM »

I think we're headed towards a decade of D presidents once TX goes, the question is when that is. If Trump wins this year, it'll vote for the D in '24 imo. The math just isn't there for the GOP to win when the presidency with it D for the time being.

The GOP is going to start owning the rust belt and great lakes states, including MN. That, with FL being increasingly republican, makes up for TX.
But then add in Georgia and Arizona, with North Carolina being the ultimate Southern bellwether.


Then add in NH, ME, Rhode Island, and eventually Illinois.

Maybe Ohio, Iowa, and Wisconsin, but I really doubt Michigan ever goes safe R. Illinois and Minnesota look more likely to trend D long term due to the hegemony of their Metros over the rest of the state. Minneapolis metro is about 57% of the state and Chicago metro is about 60% of Illinois. Neither one is trending R at all and show no signs of doing so.
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OSR stands with Israel
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« Reply #7 on: March 04, 2020, 09:05:18 PM »

I think we're headed towards a decade of D presidents once TX goes, the question is when that is. If Trump wins this year, it'll vote for the D in '24 imo. The math just isn't there for the GOP to win when the presidency with it D for the time being.

The GOP is going to start owning the rust belt and great lakes states, including MN. That, with FL being increasingly republican, makes up for TX.


No it doenst lol :



Democrats win with this map 281-257 and that is with 2010s EV allocation with 2020s that will be an even larger margin and this is without NC going Dem which it very likely would in this scenario.


To win IL, CT, DE it could happen but it would happen after a decade in the wilderness similarly to the Democrats in the 1980s and by then it would be already way way to late for much of the agenda conservatives want.


Once government programs are created its almost impossible to get rid
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #8 on: March 04, 2020, 11:32:25 PM »

There is zero historical precedent for trends being so uniform over decades as a lot of you predict.  The parties will change and/or the size of states will change and/or the makeup of states will change.  Illinois, Virginia, California, Georgia, Vermont, Colorado, etc. are literally unrecognizable from even 30 years ago, and you're willing to make bets on how our current states will vote decades from now?  I get predicting is fun, but this is asinine.  Neither party will let itself die, and no that isn't said with some ignorance that party leaders can control their voters.  When parties lose enough, they NATURALLY reset.  If you think we are going to see the heir of Donald Trump except with even MORE Rust Belt appeal vs. the heir of Hillary Clinton except with even MORE college grad appeal in literally 30 years from now, you have a very basic misunderstanding of statistics, demographics, population trends and political history.

Predicting 2020 and 2024 and even 2028 results based on what's happening now is one thing.  Treating parties, states and coalitions as relatively stagnant and just applying accelerated existing trends to them out decades into the future is just dumb.
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #9 on: March 05, 2020, 04:12:21 AM »

I think it will for a while - maybe the 2020s decade - but certainly not forever. Probably there will be a period of Democratic dominance, but we won't be a one-party nation. Republicans will have a comeback eventually, probably through a move of both parties toward the center as happened in the 1990s, and we will have about 15 wonderful years of relative unpolarization before the partisanship monster rears its ugly head once again and the cycle continues.

As for anything else, though? Only time will tell. Watch, in 30 years Louisiana will be Democrat and Oregon will be Republican, or something. I mean, who would have predicted Virginia's violent jerk to the left since 2017, or Missouri's nearly-as-fast rightward shift during Obama's presidency?
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Nightcore Nationalist
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« Reply #10 on: March 05, 2020, 12:19:29 PM »

Yes, at least for 10 years, maybe longer.

Texas is the obvious lynchpin-the GOP needs to rebuild itself to appeal to people born after 1980.  If it doesn't, it will remain in the political minority (aside from the senate) for a long time.  Although I think if the GOP can pull it off, it can remain competitive in Texas while holding on to all/most of the great lakes states.
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AN63093
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« Reply #11 on: March 05, 2020, 12:38:19 PM »

There is zero historical precedent for trends being so uniform over decades as a lot of you predict.  The parties will change and/or the size of states will change and/or the makeup of states will change.  Illinois, Virginia, California, Georgia, Vermont, Colorado, etc. are literally unrecognizable from even 30 years ago, and you're willing to make bets on how our current states will vote decades from now?  I get predicting is fun, but this is asinine.  Neither party will let itself die, and no that isn't said with some ignorance that party leaders can control their voters.  When parties lose enough, they NATURALLY reset.  If you think we are going to see the heir of Donald Trump except with even MORE Rust Belt appeal vs. the heir of Hillary Clinton except with even MORE college grad appeal in literally 30 years from now, you have a very basic misunderstanding of statistics, demographics, population trends and political history.

Predicting 2020 and 2024 and even 2028 results based on what's happening now is one thing.  Treating parties, states and coalitions as relatively stagnant and just applying accelerated existing trends to them out decades into the future is just dumb.

This.

Pretty much every day leading up to the '16 election, someone on this board proclaimed that since demographics were destiny, Clinton couldn't lose, and then she did.  Or on the flip side, I remember leading up to '12, there were people starting threads here who seriously predicted that Obama would lose the PV but still win the EC since it was Dem-advantaged (remember all those blue firewall threads? LOL).

The reality is that the EC (and the areas of power for each party) will fluctuate year-by-year, depending on the circumstances.  The EC may have looked R-advantaged in '16, but it could switch back suddenly and easily, and vice versa.  Who knows.

Every cycle on this forum, I'm promised that this is the year the great millennial revolution will occur and the country will transform to this grand socialist utopia from sea to sea, one woke nation under climate science.  And then, for a myriad of reasons (one being, of course, that leftist millennials are not geographically diverse and are heavily concentrated in like 2 states), something happens like what happened 2 days ago.. and the Dem party goes ahead and chooses Biden as their nominee.

Well, I guess not this year then!  But surely 2024!.... 2028?  2032 at the latest folks, I promise you!

I'm not bashing millennials.  I am one (albeit an older one).  But I am bashing those without historical perspective, which sadly, is probably most of this forum.
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SInNYC
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« Reply #12 on: March 07, 2020, 03:32:37 PM »

I heard this sentiment in 1992 - that time it was because 'the democrats had finally shredded their loony left and picked a moderate southerner'.

I heard it again in the late 2000s, including in the move to prevent filibusters for judicial appointees when mcconnell was filibustering everything since 'there is no chance the senate will become republican anyway'.

And then I heard it election evening 2016 in talk about the blue wall and again when early returns had Hillary close in GA (partisans ignored PA being too close to call in the same early returns).

Now I hear it since demographics will give Ds AZ, TX, GA, and NC, and the upper midwest and rust belt will just fall in line even if Ds ignore their issues.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #13 on: March 07, 2020, 05:01:46 PM »




1992-2004










2008-2020
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538Electoral
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« Reply #14 on: March 07, 2020, 09:37:49 PM »

Probably?
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #15 on: March 08, 2020, 03:05:07 PM »

I think we're headed towards a decade of D presidents once TX goes, the question is when that is. If Trump wins this year, it'll vote for the D in '24 imo. The math just isn't there for the GOP to win when the presidency with it D for the time being.

I think enough of the South/Southwest will flip to put Dems back in power for 8-12 years starting either this fall or in 2024.  But by the 2030's Republicans will be able to win by just about sweeping everything north of the Ohio Rive and/or holding on in Florida.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
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« Reply #16 on: March 08, 2020, 08:09:46 PM »

I think we're headed towards a decade of D presidents once TX goes, the question is when that is. If Trump wins this year, it'll vote for the D in '24 imo. The math just isn't there for the GOP to win when the presidency with it D for the time being.

The GOP is going to start owning the rust belt and great lakes states, including MN. That, with FL being increasingly republican, makes up for TX.

Yes, there is a big trend among white retirees moving to FL and helping it stay red. A big problem for Republicans is that from 2012 to 2016, the minority share of the electorate went up by 6% in only four years. Non Cuban Hispanics, and young Cubans are also driving the state in the opposite direction.  Whites in FL are becoming more Republican, but are still losing as a share of the population. The demographic time bomb might erupt in FL in 2024.
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