RINO Tom
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Posts: 17,030
Political Matrix E: 2.45, S: -0.52
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« on: March 04, 2020, 11:32:25 PM » |
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There is zero historical precedent for trends being so uniform over decades as a lot of you predict. The parties will change and/or the size of states will change and/or the makeup of states will change. Illinois, Virginia, California, Georgia, Vermont, Colorado, etc. are literally unrecognizable from even 30 years ago, and you're willing to make bets on how our current states will vote decades from now? I get predicting is fun, but this is asinine. Neither party will let itself die, and no that isn't said with some ignorance that party leaders can control their voters. When parties lose enough, they NATURALLY reset. If you think we are going to see the heir of Donald Trump except with even MORE Rust Belt appeal vs. the heir of Hillary Clinton except with even MORE college grad appeal in literally 30 years from now, you have a very basic misunderstanding of statistics, demographics, population trends and political history.
Predicting 2020 and 2024 and even 2028 results based on what's happening now is one thing. Treating parties, states and coalitions as relatively stagnant and just applying accelerated existing trends to them out decades into the future is just dumb.
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