NC NBC Marist: Cunningham 48%, Tillis 43% (user search)
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  NC NBC Marist: Cunningham 48%, Tillis 43% (search mode)
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Author Topic: NC NBC Marist: Cunningham 48%, Tillis 43%  (Read 2533 times)
windjammer
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« on: March 01, 2020, 10:26:44 AM »

This poll is garbage. Although I have no doubt Tillis would underperform Trump.
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windjammer
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« Reply #1 on: March 01, 2020, 01:01:18 PM »

This poll is garbage. Although I have no doubt Tillis would underperform Trump.

Why do you think so ? I can see a good numbers of Trump/Kelly voters in AZ or some Trump/Peters voters in MI but Trump/Cunnnigham voters ?? That's more difficult. Sure, some of them exist but I don't see why they would outnumber significantly Biden/Tillis voters.
I remember 2014 very well (I don't know if you were following us politics at this time). He's a gaffe prone candidate (we shouldn't wash our hands!), an "establishment" creature not liked either by the romney-clinton or obama-trump voters. For example, I remember him last year backing some legislation against Trump to show how independent minded he was and as soon as it was controversial, he changed his mind and voted a different way. No one really likes flip floppers.

I think Trump/democrats exist actually. Cooper won the 2016 gubernatorial election by overperforming in the west.
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windjammer
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Posts: 15,507
France


« Reply #2 on: March 01, 2020, 03:36:45 PM »

This poll is garbage. Although I have no doubt Tillis would underperform Trump.

Why do you think so ? I can see a good numbers of Trump/Kelly voters in AZ or some Trump/Peters voters in MI but Trump/Cunnnigham voters ?? That's more difficult. Sure, some of them exist but I don't see why they would outnumber significantly Biden/Tillis voters.
I remember 2014 very well (I don't know if you were following us politics at this time). He's a gaffe prone candidate (we shouldn't wash our hands!), an "establishment" creature not liked either by the romney-clinton or obama-trump voters. For example, I remember him last year backing some legislation against Trump to show how independent minded he was and as soon as it was controversial, he changed his mind and voted a different way. No one really likes flip floppers.

I think Trump/democrats exist actually. Cooper won the 2016 gubernatorial election by overperforming in the west.

Yeah, I was already following US politics back in 2014, actually I remember pretty well of this race, I was a bit pessimistic and I thought that Tillis would lose to Hagan, fortunately I was wrong.

Concerning Tillis, he is certainly not a Rob Portman level candidate, for sure, but he is not a bad candidate either by any definition. In 2014 he defeated an incumbent democrat by 2 points, yeah the wave helped him a lot, but it's still a notable fact. Also his fundraising numbers are okay, he is not particulary extreme (like Ted Cruz) and with his affable profile he is not scaring off swing voters. Yeah, on Trump he has clearly evolved from a Trump sceptic conservative to a Trump loyalist but I doubt that voters really care about that (Look at Graham), anyway it would hardly qualify as ''flip flopping'', most republicans didn't really like Trump at the beggining and have evolved since then.

Yeah, Trump/Democrats exist, of course, but until now it's clear that Cunnigham has not proved he can win a large enough numbers of Trump voters to prevail in NC.
We don't have a lot of polling datas, but the few polls we have tend to show that Tillis is either running on par with Trump (PPP) or slightly ahead of him (the East Carolina University poll), the Marist poll is the only poll which has Tillis running behind Trump and even in this case he is only running 1 point behind him.
So no it's very doubtful that you will a significant numbers of Trump/Cunningham voters, so unless Trump loses NC Tillis will probably be reelected.
Winning by only 2 points in NC, in a such republican wave, was such an underperformance.
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