NC NBC Marist: Cunningham 48%, Tillis 43%
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  NC NBC Marist: Cunningham 48%, Tillis 43%
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Author Topic: NC NBC Marist: Cunningham 48%, Tillis 43%  (Read 2208 times)
Hindsight was 2020
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« on: March 01, 2020, 09:47:16 AM »


Maybe Cunningham wasnít that bad a pick after all
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #1 on: March 01, 2020, 09:49:36 AM »

I need an IV drip of good polls after last night's results. This is a good start.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #2 on: March 01, 2020, 09:59:11 AM »


Maybe Cunningham wasnít that bad a pick after all

The more likely explanation is that this poll is too D friendly (congress vote at D+4, Trump losing by 4).
Obviously if Trump is losing NC by 4 Tillis is toast, now it's very unlikely that Trump is losing NC by a such large margin
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #3 on: March 01, 2020, 10:08:02 AM »

Great news, AZ, CO, ME and NC clinches the Senate
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #4 on: March 01, 2020, 10:26:44 AM »

This poll is garbage. Although I have no doubt Tillis would underperform Trump.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #5 on: March 01, 2020, 10:36:05 AM »

This poll is garbage. Although I have no doubt Tillis would underperform Trump.

Why do you think so ? I can see a good numbers of Trump/Kelly voters in AZ or some Trump/Peters voters in MI but Trump/Cunnnigham voters ?? That's more difficult. Sure, some of them exist but I don't see why they would outnumber significantly Biden/Tillis voters.
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S019
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« Reply #6 on: March 01, 2020, 10:39:34 AM »

Marist is a high quality poster and often has an A rating from 538, I definitely trust this and Tillis is a weak incumbent

Tossup/Tilt D (FLIP), at this point, honestly
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #7 on: March 01, 2020, 01:01:18 PM »

This poll is garbage. Although I have no doubt Tillis would underperform Trump.

Why do you think so ? I can see a good numbers of Trump/Kelly voters in AZ or some Trump/Peters voters in MI but Trump/Cunnnigham voters ?? That's more difficult. Sure, some of them exist but I don't see why they would outnumber significantly Biden/Tillis voters.
I remember 2014 very well (I don't know if you were following us politics at this time). He's a gaffe prone candidate (we shouldn't wash our hands!), an "establishment" creature not liked either by the romney-clinton or obama-trump voters. For example, I remember him last year backing some legislation against Trump to show how independent minded he was and as soon as it was controversial, he changed his mind and voted a different way. No one really likes flip floppers.

I think Trump/democrats exist actually. Cooper won the 2016 gubernatorial election by overperforming in the west.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #8 on: March 01, 2020, 03:19:54 PM »

This poll is garbage. Although I have no doubt Tillis would underperform Trump.

Why do you think so ? I can see a good numbers of Trump/Kelly voters in AZ or some Trump/Peters voters in MI but Trump/Cunnnigham voters ?? That's more difficult. Sure, some of them exist but I don't see why they would outnumber significantly Biden/Tillis voters.

Think of how Trump overperformed in Robeson County - it's not clear Tillis would have the same appeal.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #9 on: March 01, 2020, 03:29:08 PM »

This poll is garbage. Although I have no doubt Tillis would underperform Trump.

Why do you think so ? I can see a good numbers of Trump/Kelly voters in AZ or some Trump/Peters voters in MI but Trump/Cunnnigham voters ?? That's more difficult. Sure, some of them exist but I don't see why they would outnumber significantly Biden/Tillis voters.
I remember 2014 very well (I don't know if you were following us politics at this time). He's a gaffe prone candidate (we shouldn't wash our hands!), an "establishment" creature not liked either by the romney-clinton or obama-trump voters. For example, I remember him last year backing some legislation against Trump to show how independent minded he was and as soon as it was controversial, he changed his mind and voted a different way. No one really likes flip floppers.

I think Trump/democrats exist actually. Cooper won the 2016 gubernatorial election by overperforming in the west.

Yeah, I was already following US politics back in 2014, actually I remember pretty well of this race, I was a bit pessimistic and I thought that Tillis would lose to Hagan, fortunately I was wrong.

Concerning Tillis, he is certainly not a Rob Portman level candidate, for sure, but he is not a bad candidate either by any definition. In 2014 he defeated an incumbent democrat by 2 points, yeah the wave helped him a lot, but it's still a notable fact. Also his fundraising numbers are okay, he is not particulary extreme (like Ted Cruz) and with his affable profile he is not scaring off swing voters. Yeah, on Trump he has clearly evolved from a Trump sceptic conservative to a Trump loyalist but I doubt that voters really care about that (Look at Graham), anyway it would hardly qualify as ''flip flopping'', most republicans didn't really like Trump at the beggining and have evolved since then.

Yeah, Trump/Democrats exist, of course, but until now it's clear that Cunnigham has not proved he can win a large enough numbers of Trump voters to prevail in NC.
We don't have a lot of polling datas, but the few polls we have tend to show that Tillis is either running on par with Trump (PPP) or slightly ahead of him (the East Carolina University poll), the Marist poll is the only poll which has Tillis running behind Trump and even in this case he is only running 1 point behind him.
So no it's very doubtful that you will a significant numbers of Trump/Cunningham voters, so unless Trump loses NC Tillis will probably be reelected.
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #10 on: March 01, 2020, 03:36:45 PM »

This poll is garbage. Although I have no doubt Tillis would underperform Trump.

Why do you think so ? I can see a good numbers of Trump/Kelly voters in AZ or some Trump/Peters voters in MI but Trump/Cunnnigham voters ?? That's more difficult. Sure, some of them exist but I don't see why they would outnumber significantly Biden/Tillis voters.
I remember 2014 very well (I don't know if you were following us politics at this time). He's a gaffe prone candidate (we shouldn't wash our hands!), an "establishment" creature not liked either by the romney-clinton or obama-trump voters. For example, I remember him last year backing some legislation against Trump to show how independent minded he was and as soon as it was controversial, he changed his mind and voted a different way. No one really likes flip floppers.

I think Trump/democrats exist actually. Cooper won the 2016 gubernatorial election by overperforming in the west.

Yeah, I was already following US politics back in 2014, actually I remember pretty well of this race, I was a bit pessimistic and I thought that Tillis would lose to Hagan, fortunately I was wrong.

Concerning Tillis, he is certainly not a Rob Portman level candidate, for sure, but he is not a bad candidate either by any definition. In 2014 he defeated an incumbent democrat by 2 points, yeah the wave helped him a lot, but it's still a notable fact. Also his fundraising numbers are okay, he is not particulary extreme (like Ted Cruz) and with his affable profile he is not scaring off swing voters. Yeah, on Trump he has clearly evolved from a Trump sceptic conservative to a Trump loyalist but I doubt that voters really care about that (Look at Graham), anyway it would hardly qualify as ''flip flopping'', most republicans didn't really like Trump at the beggining and have evolved since then.

Yeah, Trump/Democrats exist, of course, but until now it's clear that Cunnigham has not proved he can win a large enough numbers of Trump voters to prevail in NC.
We don't have a lot of polling datas, but the few polls we have tend to show that Tillis is either running on par with Trump (PPP) or slightly ahead of him (the East Carolina University poll), the Marist poll is the only poll which has Tillis running behind Trump and even in this case he is only running 1 point behind him.
So no it's very doubtful that you will a significant numbers of Trump/Cunningham voters, so unless Trump loses NC Tillis will probably be reelected.
Winning by only 2 points in NC, in a such republican wave, was such an underperformance.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #11 on: March 01, 2020, 03:37:51 PM »

This poll is garbage. Although I have no doubt Tillis would underperform Trump.

Why do you think so ? I can see a good numbers of Trump/Kelly voters in AZ or some Trump/Peters voters in MI but Trump/Cunnnigham voters ?? That's more difficult. Sure, some of them exist but I don't see why they would outnumber significantly Biden/Tillis voters.

Think of how Trump overperformed in Robeson County - it's not clear Tillis would have the same appeal.

Okay, Tillis will probably underperform Trump in Robeson County. I will concede you that.
But even with that in mind, when you see how this area is trending it's still fairly likely that he will get + 45% of the vote in Robeson.
Anyway keep in mind that at the other extreme you have places like southern Mecklenburg which will have some Biden/Tillis voters.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #12 on: March 01, 2020, 03:50:37 PM »

This poll is garbage. Although I have no doubt Tillis would underperform Trump.

Why do you think so ? I can see a good numbers of Trump/Kelly voters in AZ or some Trump/Peters voters in MI but Trump/Cunnnigham voters ?? That's more difficult. Sure, some of them exist but I don't see why they would outnumber significantly Biden/Tillis voters.
I remember 2014 very well (I don't know if you were following us politics at this time). He's a gaffe prone candidate (we shouldn't wash our hands!), an "establishment" creature not liked either by the romney-clinton or obama-trump voters. For example, I remember him last year backing some legislation against Trump to show how independent minded he was and as soon as it was controversial, he changed his mind and voted a different way. No one really likes flip floppers.

I think Trump/democrats exist actually. Cooper won the 2016 gubernatorial election by overperforming in the west.

Yeah, I was already following US politics back in 2014, actually I remember pretty well of this race, I was a bit pessimistic and I thought that Tillis would lose to Hagan, fortunately I was wrong.

Concerning Tillis, he is certainly not a Rob Portman level candidate, for sure, but he is not a bad candidate either by any definition. In 2014 he defeated an incumbent democrat by 2 points, yeah the wave helped him a lot, but it's still a notable fact. Also his fundraising numbers are okay, he is not particulary extreme (like Ted Cruz) and with his affable profile he is not scaring off swing voters. Yeah, on Trump he has clearly evolved from a Trump sceptic conservative to a Trump loyalist but I doubt that voters really care about that (Look at Graham), anyway it would hardly qualify as ''flip flopping'', most republicans didn't really like Trump at the beggining and have evolved since then.

Yeah, Trump/Democrats exist, of course, but until now it's clear that Cunnigham has not proved he can win a large enough numbers of Trump voters to prevail in NC.
We don't have a lot of polling datas, but the few polls we have tend to show that Tillis is either running on par with Trump (PPP) or slightly ahead of him (the East Carolina University poll), the Marist poll is the only poll which has Tillis running behind Trump and even in this case he is only running 1 point behind him.
So no it's very doubtful that you will a significant numbers of Trump/Cunningham voters, so unless Trump loses NC Tillis will probably be reelected.
Winning by only 2 points in NC, in a such republican wave, was such an underperformance.

In 2014 House republicans won the congressional vote by 11 in NC.

At the same time Tillis won by 2.

On the paper that's a big underperformance BUT.... you have to take into account 1) the fact that Tillis was running against an incumbent senator and per Nate Silver the incumbency bonus is still worth 5 to 6 points; 2) the fact that Tills was outspent by a nearly 2 to 1 ratio
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #13 on: March 01, 2020, 03:54:39 PM »

On second thought, I stand by my prediction of Tillis +5.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #14 on: March 01, 2020, 06:13:48 PM »

Eh, not believing it. Cunningham seems very weak.

More likely if he wins, it's much closer. In many ways, Cunningham is like the Thom Tillis to Tillis' well...Hagan. The former is dependent on sheer wave energy, and the latter is dependent on their own percentages moving up and not stagnating.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: March 01, 2020, 06:33:36 PM »

On second thought, I stand by my prediction of Tillis +5.

Cooper will have coattails and Cunningham will win
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #16 on: March 01, 2020, 06:45:06 PM »

Less believable than the other NC-SEN poll which has Tillis ahead by 2, but yeah, the Republicans' continuous insistence that no single Republican Senator except maybe McSally could POSSIBLY run behind Trump or lose reelection while Trump carries their state is really cute.

Tillis could win, but this race isnít Lean R and itís certainly not far less likely to flip than ME.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #17 on: March 02, 2020, 08:08:14 AM »

On second thought, I stand by my prediction of Tillis +5.

Objectively, that seems like a bad prediction. This race is a tossup.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #18 on: March 02, 2020, 05:32:26 PM »

On second thought, I stand by my prediction of Tillis +5.

No chance.  If Tillis won by 2% in an Obama midterm there's no way he improves that much while Trump is in the White House.   

He certainly hasn't gotten more popular since his first election.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #19 on: March 02, 2020, 10:03:55 PM »

Wait, people actually thought Cunningham would be a bad candidate?
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Pericles
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« Reply #20 on: March 02, 2020, 10:16:46 PM »

Brutal numbers for Tillis, but probably too good to be true.
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Yoda
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« Reply #21 on: March 02, 2020, 10:37:03 PM »

I'm just now remembering that North Carolina has it's governor/statewide elections in Prez election years and suddenly I'm a lot more bullish on Tillis losing.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #22 on: March 03, 2020, 09:58:09 AM »

Brutal numbers for Tillis, but probably too good to be true.

Why, Cooper is leading Dems and will have coattails?
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Figueira
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« Reply #23 on: March 04, 2020, 06:37:57 AM »

It's still very early and I'd take this poll with a grain of salt, but this is an underrated pickup opportunity.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #24 on: March 05, 2020, 04:20:07 AM »

This poll is garbage. Although I have no doubt Tillis would underperform Trump.

Why do you think so ? I can see a good numbers of Trump/Kelly voters in AZ or some Trump/Peters voters in MI but Trump/Cunnnigham voters ?? That's more difficult. Sure, some of them exist but I don't see why they would outnumber significantly Biden/Tillis voters.
I remember 2014 very well (I don't know if you were following us politics at this time). He's a gaffe prone candidate (we shouldn't wash our hands!), an "establishment" creature not liked either by the romney-clinton or obama-trump voters. For example, I remember him last year backing some legislation against Trump to show how independent minded he was and as soon as it was controversial, he changed his mind and voted a different way. No one really likes flip floppers.

I think Trump/democrats exist actually. Cooper won the 2016 gubernatorial election by overperforming in the west.

Yeah, I was already following US politics back in 2014, actually I remember pretty well of this race, I was a bit pessimistic and I thought that Tillis would lose to Hagan, fortunately I was wrong.

Concerning Tillis, he is certainly not a Rob Portman level candidate, for sure, but he is not a bad candidate either by any definition. In 2014 he defeated an incumbent democrat by 2 points, yeah the wave helped him a lot, but it's still a notable fact. Also his fundraising numbers are okay, he is not particulary extreme (like Ted Cruz) and with his affable profile he is not scaring off swing voters. Yeah, on Trump he has clearly evolved from a Trump sceptic conservative to a Trump loyalist but I doubt that voters really care about that (Look at Graham), anyway it would hardly qualify as ''flip flopping'', most republicans didn't really like Trump at the beggining and have evolved since then.

Yeah, Trump/Democrats exist, of course, but until now it's clear that Cunnigham has not proved he can win a large enough numbers of Trump voters to prevail in NC.
We don't have a lot of polling datas, but the few polls we have tend to show that Tillis is either running on par with Trump (PPP) or slightly ahead of him (the East Carolina University poll), the Marist poll is the only poll which has Tillis running behind Trump and even in this case he is only running 1 point behind him.
So no it's very doubtful that you will a significant numbers of Trump/Cunningham voters, so unless Trump loses NC Tillis will probably be reelected.
Winning by only 2 points in NC, in a such republican wave, was such an underperformance.

In 2014 House republicans won the congressional vote by 11 in NC.

At the same time Tillis won by 2.

On the paper that's a big underperformance BUT.... you have to take into account 1) the fact that Tillis was running against an incumbent senator and per Nate Silver the incumbency bonus is still worth 5 to 6 points; 2) the fact that Tills was outspent by a nearly 2 to 1 ratio

Tillis is a horrendously week candidate who is tied in with the legislature and its big business backers. This means he is hated by Trumpist types because when he was state house Speaker, he watered down the state's e-verify legislation and then led and override of Pat McCrory's veto, all because it was what the Koch brothers and Art Pope demanded of him to get their mega dollars against Kay Hagan.

As for Hagan, god rest her soul, but she was a very vulnerable Senator and was unpopular because of her votes for Obamacare and the fact that she sided with the 2013 comprehensive immigration bill. Keep in mind, this a state with too low of a Hispanic voting population to make a difference, but enough of a Hispanic population to scare the crap out of white working class voters, which is why Trump did so well in rural NC.

Richard Burr understands this and that is why he has always voted no on comprehensive immigration reform and got elected by running a quasi-protectionist campaign against Bill Clinton's former Chief of Staff by tying him to NAFTA in 2004.
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