UTTyler: Again Texas toss-up

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1234082928528891910

[MillennialModerate]

I’m sorry but if your last name doesn’t begin with B and you’re not over 70 then you have no shot of beating Trump in Texas

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I’m sorry but if your last name doesn’t begin with B and you’re not over 70 then you have no shot of beating Trump in Texas

Shut up troll

[UWS]

I’m sorry but if your last name doesn’t begin with B and you’re not over 70 then you have no shot of beating Trump in Texas

Then Sanders has no chance in Texas. Thanks.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

These Texas tossup polls are delicious.

[OSR stands with Israel]

These Texas tossup polls are delicious.

These early polls mean nothing other than Trump isn’t popular in the state . When Trump actually starts campaigning against the Dem , then they will matter much more .

Bernie will collapse here in the summer and fall

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

These Texas tossup polls are delicious.

These early polls mean nothing other than Trump isn’t popular in the state . When Trump actually starts campaigning against the Dem , then they will matter much more .

Bernie will collapse here in the summer and fall

Bernie isnt guarentee to collapse but Biden can, with Ukraine

[Sbane]

These Texas tossup polls are delicious.

These early polls mean nothing other than Trump isn’t popular in the state . When Trump actually starts campaigning against the Dem , then they will matter much more .

Bernie will collapse here in the summer and fall

Bernie wins the election and keeps it close in TX because he keeps talking about the bread and butter issues that affect people the most. And he keeps repeating these over and over and over again. You can call him a socialist or anything else you want, but people know exactly what he wants to do.

[OSR stands with Israel]

These Texas tossup polls are delicious.

These early polls mean nothing other than Trump isn’t popular in the state . When Trump actually starts campaigning against the Dem , then they will matter much more .

Bernie will collapse here in the summer and fall

Bernie wins the election and keeps it close in TX because he keeps talking about the bread and butter issues that affect people the most. And he keeps repeating these over and over and over again. You can call him a socialist or anything else you want, but people know exactly what he wants to do.

It’s not that you call him that , he has so much dirt that will be revealed that will cost him 3-4 points  in the polls in general and then his anti fracking stance will be very unpopular in TX and PA to and he will lose PA by 1.5 points and TX by 7-8 (Bernie will still get 45% of the vote though).


Remember polls showed even Romney leading Obama in Michigan by 1 point in June , then Obama ran all the outsourcing and let Detroit go bankrupt ads over and over and Mitt collapsed in Michigan and lost by 9

[Sbane]

These Texas tossup polls are delicious.

These early polls mean nothing other than Trump isn’t popular in the state . When Trump actually starts campaigning against the Dem , then they will matter much more .

Bernie will collapse here in the summer and fall

Bernie wins the election and keeps it close in TX because he keeps talking about the bread and butter issues that affect people the most. And he keeps repeating these over and over and over again. You can call him a socialist or anything else you want, but people know exactly what he wants to do.

It’s not that you call him that , he has so much dirt that will be revealed that will cost him 3-4 points  in the polls in general and then his anti fracking stance will be very unpopular in TX and PA to and he will lose PA by 1.5 points and TX by 7-8 (Bernie will still get 45% of the vote though).


Remember polls showed even Romney leading Obama in Michigan by 1 point in June , then Obama ran all the outsourcing and let Detroit go bankrupt ads over and over and Mitt collapsed in Michigan and lost by 9

Only his ant-fracking stand could hurt him here, not some public access television footage from the 1980's. That is a liability here, not as sure about PA. Still, Bernie doesn't lose by more than 5.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

These Texas tossup polls are delicious.

These early polls mean nothing other than Trump isn’t popular in the state . When Trump actually starts campaigning against the Dem , then they will matter much more .

Bernie will collapse here in the summer and fall

Bernie wins the election and keeps it close in TX because he keeps talking about the bread and butter issues that affect people the most. And he keeps repeating these over and over and over again. You can call him a socialist or anything else you want, but people know exactly what he wants to do.

It’s not that you call him that , he has so much dirt that will be revealed that will cost him 3-4 points  in the polls in general and then his anti fracking stance will be very unpopular in TX and PA to and he will lose PA by 1.5 points and TX by 7-8 (Bernie will still get 45% of the vote though).


Remember polls showed even Romney leading Obama in Michigan by 1 point in June , then Obama ran all the outsourcing and let Detroit go bankrupt ads over and over and Mitt collapsed in Michigan and lost by 9

Only his ant-fracking stand could hurt him here, not some public access television footage from the 1980's. That is a liability here, not as sure about PA. Still, Bernie doesn't lose by more than 5.

I wouldn’t engage, his script doesn’t allow for new evidence or thought

[tagimaucia]

Remember polls showed even Romney leading Obama in Michigan by 1 point in June , then Obama ran all the outsourcing and let Detroit go bankrupt ads over and over and Mitt collapsed in Michigan and lost by 9

dude i just showed in another thread that the one random poll you’re citing as an example was a huge outlier at the time. obama *always* led romney in michigan in 2012 and at that time was leading by 5-6 points on average

it’s very easy to make any historical point you want to make by citing a random poll from the past, you can always find outliers if you want to.

[MT Treasurer]

Remember polls showed even Romney leading Obama in Michigan by 1 point in June , then Obama ran all the outsourcing and let Detroit go bankrupt ads over and over and Mitt collapsed in Michigan and lost by 9

dude i just showed in another thread that the one random poll you’re citing as an example was a huge outlier at the time. obama *always* led romney in michigan in 2012 and at that time was leading by 5-6 points on average

it’s very easy to make any historical point you want to make by citing a random poll from the past, you can always find outliers if you want to.

He literally ignores all evidence that contradicts or disproves his narrative, he’s one of the most stubborn and least persuadable posters here. All of his predictions are pretty much just what he wants to happen.

[MT Treasurer]

So many outliers

[OSR stands with Israel]

Remember polls showed even Romney leading Obama in Michigan by 1 point in June , then Obama ran all the outsourcing and let Detroit go bankrupt ads over and over and Mitt collapsed in Michigan and lost by 9

dude i just showed in another thread that the one random poll you’re citing as an example was a huge outlier at the time. obama *always* led romney in michigan in 2012 and at that time was leading by 5-6 points on average

it’s very easy to make any historical point you want to make by citing a random poll from the past, you can always find outliers if you want to.

He literally ignores all evidence that contradicts or disproves his narrative, he’s one of the most stubborn and least persuadable posters here. All of his predictions are pretty much just what he wants to happen.

not true, i change my predictions a lot. I just wont change them based on polls 8 months out lol .



If these are what the polls are like this in September , then its a different story

[Matty]

I will ban bet anyone right now that sanders nor biden carry texas.

Trump will win it by AT LEAST 3.5.


Let's review texas in a trump v sanders hypo

1) large latino population that is young. Advatnage bernie (but texas latinos are more gop than ca or az).

2) One of the most suburbanized, upper middle class white populations in the country. Loathes trump's style, but hates socialism more. Advantage trump.

3) YUGE energy section. Bernie is worst fit imaginable for the energy regions. Advantage trump.

4) Rural texas still heavily trump. Advantage trump.


Trump won texas by 8 last time vs a moderate dem. The demographics have changed since 2016, but not nearly enough.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

These Texas tossup polls are delicious.

These early polls mean nothing other than Trump isn’t popular in the state . When Trump actually starts campaigning against the Dem , then they will matter much more .

Bernie will collapse here in the summer and fall

I never said Bernie would win the state. Right now, I think Trump wins it by around 4.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I will ban bet anyone right now that sanders nor biden carry texas.

Trump will win it by AT LEAST 3.5.


Let's review texas in a trump v sanders hypo

1) large latino population that is young. Advatnage bernie (but texas latinos are more gop than ca or az).

2) One of the most suburbanized, upper middle class white populations in the country. Loathes trump's style, but hates socialism more. Advantage trump.

3) YUGE energy section. Bernie is worst fit imaginable for the energy regions. Advantage trump.

4) Rural texas still heavily trump. Advantage trump.


Trump won texas by 8 last time vs a moderate dem. The demographics have changed since 2016, but not nearly enough.

You cant say that for certain, we can say the same thing about Rs whom keep insisting that Bernie cant win WI and the compiled map, still has WI leaning R. If Rs can have WI leaning R, Dems can have TX and OK going D. Trump will win OK, but D may win Sen with inevitable Inhofe retiring 😎😎😎😎

[Badger]

At the risk of sounding Sam Spade esque, isn't it rather obvious how most of these so-called undecided voters will split come November, regardless of who the Democratic nominee is?

[tagimaucia]

if i had to put even money on the democratic nominee winning or not winning texas this fall, i’d definitely go with not winning, but the way people post about certain polls on here you’d think nothing ever changes in politics.

i bet if i searched through the 2008 archives on this site i’d find a zillion people posting about how virginia and colorado and north carolina polls are all trash and of course the gop will end up winning there by 4 or whatever.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I stated above if Rs insist that WI can GOP, Dems have dreams of our own of winning James Inhofe seat and putting Hegar in the Senate

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

if i had to put even money on the democratic nominee winning or not winning texas this fall, i’d definitely go with not winning, but the way people post about certain polls on here you’d think nothing ever changes in politics.

i bet if i searched through the 2008 archives on this site i’d find a zillion people posting about how virginia and colorado and north carolina polls are all trash and of course the gop will end up winning there by 4 or whatever.

Exactly my thoughts. My gut feeling is that Texas votes for the next Democratic President, whether this year or in 2024. And people will just have to wait and see. But my gut feeling is also backed up by 20+ polls whereas the Trump +7 nonsense is just...not

[Adam Griffin]

A Democrat isn't winning TX without a robust and well-established campaign infrastructure.

And there's only one candidate with a massive ground game cultivating relationships for months that can be immediately folded over into a general election campaign.

[Stockdale for Veep]

"I done wet my britches."

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Bloomberg winning the Dem nomination and spending $10 billion apiece on Texas and Florida is the Dems' best chance of taking back the White House.