When will the two term trend end?

[MillennialModerate]

When will the two term trend end? It used to always be a tossup whether or not a President got re-elected or not. Now it feels like a given that they get re-elected

FDR: Re-elected 3 times
Truman: Re-elected
Eisenhower: Re-elected
JFK: 100% would have been re-elected
LBJ: Re-elected
Nixon: Re-elected
Ford: Lost
Carter: Lost
Reagan: Re-elected
Bush: Lost
Clinton: Re-elected
Bush: Re-elected
Obama: Re-elected
Trump: Favored to be re-elected

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2020, but it will continue for Bernie, in 2024, Senate map favors Dems in 2024

[Agonized-Statism]

LBJ: Re-elected

There was a thread about this on the Process board. Was he really reelected, or just elected? Because 1964 was the first and only time America voted LBJ for president.

[MABA 2020]

Hopefully this year? (I think if Bernie wins he won't run again in 2024 making him another one termer)

[MillennialModerate]

Hopefully this year? (I think if Bernie wins he won't run again in 2024 making him another one termer)

I think if Biden or Bernie win they’ll both NOT run for a second term.

In Biden’s case the VP would be the almost definite likely ‘24 nominee.

[AGA]

LBJ: Re-elected

There was a thread about this on the Process board. Was he really reelected, or just elected? Because 1964 was the first and only time America voted LBJ for president.

Technically he was already elected vice-president, but you could argue that he was never reelected, and Ford definitely wasn't reelected. I'd say this is just semantics and not really relevant to the spirit of the post.

[brucejoel99]

Hopefully 8 months & 2 days from today!

[dw93]

Sometime between now and 2032.

[morgankingsley]

If not 2020 then probably 2028, I feel like it will either be Trump or the next president. This would be historically unprecedented if Trump wins a second term. The first time four presidents in a row would win two terms. Eventually people would grow tired of some form of incumbency even faster than "normal" and the trend will end then

[Grassroots]

This year. It hopefully is broken again in 2024 by a republican.

[dw93]

This year. It hopefully is broken again in 2024 by a republican.

Honestly I could see this happening. Biden or Sanders narrowly beat Trump only to get saddled with a bad economy and Mitch McConnell still leading the Senate, and then whichever one wins declining to seek a second term due to age/health and their VP or whoever gets the Dem Nomination goes on to lose (thanks in large part to an even more divided Democratic Party) to Howley, DeSantis, or God Help us Cruz.

[Grassroots]

This year. It hopefully is broken again in 2024 by a republican.

Honestly I could see this happening. Biden or Sanders narrowly beat Trump only to get saddled with a bad economy and Mitch McConnell still leading the Senate, and then whichever one wins declining to seek a second term due to age/health and their VP or whoever gets the Dem Nomination goes on to lose (thanks in large part to an even more divided Democratic Party) to Howley, DeSantis, or God Help us Cruz.

Most republicans dislike Cruz as he's just a leech who has no real principle. The chances of him winning a primary are close to 0.

[dw93]

This year. It hopefully is broken again in 2024 by a republican.

Honestly I could see this happening. Biden or Sanders narrowly beat Trump only to get saddled with a bad economy and Mitch McConnell still leading the Senate, and then whichever one wins declining to seek a second term due to age/health and their VP or whoever gets the Dem Nomination goes on to lose (thanks in large part to an even more divided Democratic Party) to Howley, DeSantis, or God Help us Cruz.

Most republicans dislike Cruz as he's just a leech who has no real principle. The chances of him winning a primary are close to 0.

Historically Cruz would still have a chance. 2000 and 2016 were the only times in the last 40 years that the runner up from the last primary wasn't nominated the next time.

[Grassroots]

This year. It hopefully is broken again in 2024 by a republican.

Honestly I could see this happening. Biden or Sanders narrowly beat Trump only to get saddled with a bad economy and Mitch McConnell still leading the Senate, and then whichever one wins declining to seek a second term due to age/health and their VP or whoever gets the Dem Nomination goes on to lose (thanks in large part to an even more divided Democratic Party) to Howley, DeSantis, or God Help us Cruz.

Most republicans dislike Cruz as he's just a leech who has no real principle. The chances of him winning a primary are close to 0.

Historically Cruz would still have a chance. 2000 and 2016 were the only times in the last 40 years that the runner up from the last primary wasn't nominated the next time.

Huckabee was the runner up to McCain in 2008.

[brucejoel99]

This year. It hopefully is broken again in 2024 by a republican.

Honestly I could see this happening. Biden or Sanders narrowly beat Trump only to get saddled with a bad economy and Mitch McConnell still leading the Senate, and then whichever one wins declining to seek a second term due to age/health and their VP or whoever gets the Dem Nomination goes on to lose (thanks in large part to an even more divided Democratic Party) to Howley, DeSantis, or God Help us Cruz.

Most republicans dislike Cruz as he's just a leech who has no real principle. The chances of him winning a primary are close to 0.

Historically Cruz would still have a chance. 2000 and 2016 were the only times in the last 40 years that the runner up from the last primary wasn't nominated the next time.

Huckabee was the runner up to McCain in 2008.

Actually, it was Romney... & then, of course, he (as the runner-up from the last primary) went on be nominated the next time in 2012.

[Grassroots]

This year. It hopefully is broken again in 2024 by a republican.

Honestly I could see this happening. Biden or Sanders narrowly beat Trump only to get saddled with a bad economy and Mitch McConnell still leading the Senate, and then whichever one wins declining to seek a second term due to age/health and their VP or whoever gets the Dem Nomination goes on to lose (thanks in large part to an even more divided Democratic Party) to Howley, DeSantis, or God Help us Cruz.

Most republicans dislike Cruz as he's just a leech who has no real principle. The chances of him winning a primary are close to 0.

Historically Cruz would still have a chance. 2000 and 2016 were the only times in the last 40 years that the runner up from the last primary wasn't nominated the next time.

Huckabee was the runner up to McCain in 2008.

Actually, it was Romney... & then, of course, he (as the runner-up from the last primary) went on be nominated the next time in 2012.

Um, please research more.

Romney got less delegates than Huckabee and dropped out before Huckabee did. That doesn't sound like runner up to me.

[OSR stands with Israel]

This year. It hopefully is broken again in 2024 by a republican.

Honestly I could see this happening. Biden or Sanders narrowly beat Trump only to get saddled with a bad economy and Mitch McConnell still leading the Senate, and then whichever one wins declining to seek a second term due to age/health and their VP or whoever gets the Dem Nomination goes on to lose (thanks in large part to an even more divided Democratic Party) to Howley, DeSantis, or God Help us Cruz.

Most republicans dislike Cruz as he's just a leech who has no real principle. The chances of him winning a primary are close to 0.

Historically Cruz would still have a chance. 2000 and 2016 were the only times in the last 40 years that the runner up from the last primary wasn't nominated the next time.

Huckabee was the runner up to McCain in 2008.

Actually, it was Romney... & then, of course, he (as the runner-up from the last primary) went on be nominated the next time in 2012.

Um, please research more.

Romney got less delegates than Huckabee and dropped out before Huckabee did. That doesn't sound like runner up to me.

Romney had much more delegates than Huck did by the time he dropped out, he just knew he had no chance so he dropped out while Huck tried to stay in longer to try to win TX

[brucejoel99]

This year. It hopefully is broken again in 2024 by a republican.

Honestly I could see this happening. Biden or Sanders narrowly beat Trump only to get saddled with a bad economy and Mitch McConnell still leading the Senate, and then whichever one wins declining to seek a second term due to age/health and their VP or whoever gets the Dem Nomination goes on to lose (thanks in large part to an even more divided Democratic Party) to Howley, DeSantis, or God Help us Cruz.

Most republicans dislike Cruz as he's just a leech who has no real principle. The chances of him winning a primary are close to 0.

Historically Cruz would still have a chance. 2000 and 2016 were the only times in the last 40 years that the runner up from the last primary wasn't nominated the next time.

Huckabee was the runner up to McCain in 2008.

Actually, it was Romney... & then, of course, he (as the runner-up from the last primary) went on be nominated the next time in 2012.

Um, please research more.

Romney got less delegates than Huckabee and dropped out before Huckabee did. That doesn't sound like runner up to me.

Romney had much more delegates than Huck did by the time he dropped out, he just knew he had no chance so he dropped out while Huck tried to stay in longer to try to win TX

This, plus the fact that he handily beat Huckabee in the popular vote. Huckabee may have been the technical runner-up to McCain in terms of delegates solely by virtue of having stayed in the race longer than Romney did & thus being able to accrue more delegates, but Romney was far-&-away considered by the narrative of the campaign to have been the runner-up (this is exemplified, of course, in Romney constantly having been referred to as the 2008 runner-up during the 2012 campaign, as well as by the fact that the Wikipedia page for the 2008 primaries lists Romney as 2nd).