Data For Progress: Sanders +2 in NC, Sanders +9 in TX

[Adam Griffin]

Sanders can theoretically afford to do as bad (or at least close to it) as he did in the Confederacy: as long as he keeps the Southern periphery in check, it's fine (not to mention CA's effects). Clinton won TX 2:1 in 2016: even if Sanders loses slightly, it's really not a big deal, as he'll be taking 50+ delegates net away from a candidate like Biden. The only major contest where he's likely to get rat-f[inks]ked is FL.

Little known fact: Sanders won more delegates outside the Confederacy in 2016 than Clinton:

Non-Confederates:
Sanders   1448
Clinton   1432

Confederates:
Clinton   700
Sanders   332

This is why the other candidates need to stay in the race to deny Sanders the majority of the Non-Confederate delegates.
The Confederate delegates are already strongly Anti-Sanders.

Based on the South Carolina results, we can conclude with certainty that the undecided voters or late deciders are Anti-Sanders and that they will break for Biden. That means that Biden may even win Texas.

It still wouldn't stop him from winning the largest share. I know you'd love this, but if Sanders goes into the convention with the most delegates and gets denied the nomination, 5,000,000 Democratic votes in the margin disappear overnight and the election is over. Trumps gets 330+ EVs and possibly a majority of the PV to boot.

Could you be more of a hack?

Literally a Democratic Party officer, so I probably have more of a reason to cuddle up to THE BRAND than you - yet you somehow beat me at it! That's the definition of a hack.

If you don't see how a million or more people will flip their ballots out of spite + another 2-3 million will either stay home (punishing all candidates), vote third party or otherwise leave the contest blank, then you're a delusional hack at that.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Sanders can theoretically afford to do as bad (or at least close to it) as he did in the Confederacy: as long as he keeps the Southern periphery in check, it's fine (not to mention CA's effects). Clinton won TX 2:1 in 2016: even if Sanders loses slightly, it's really not a big deal, as he'll be taking 50+ delegates net away from a candidate like Biden. The only major contest where he's likely to get rat-f[inks]ked is FL.

Little known fact: Sanders won more delegates outside the Confederacy in 2016 than Clinton:

Non-Confederates:
Sanders   1448
Clinton   1432

Confederates:
Clinton   700
Sanders   332

This is why the other candidates need to stay in the race to deny Sanders the majority of the Non-Confederate delegates.
The Confederate delegates are already strongly Anti-Sanders.

Based on the South Carolina results, we can conclude with certainty that the undecided voters or late deciders are Anti-Sanders and that they will break for Biden. That means that Biden may even win Texas.

It still wouldn't stop him from winning the largest share. I know you'd love this, but if Sanders goes into the convention with the most delegates and gets denied the nomination, 5,000,000 Democratic votes in the margin disappear overnight and the election is over. Trumps gets 330+ EVs and possibly a majority of the PV to boot.

Could you be more of a hack?

Literally a Democratic Party officer, so I probably have more of a reason to cuddle up to THE BRAND than you - yet you somehow beat me at it! That's the definition of a hack.

If you don't see how a million or more people will flip their ballots out of spite + another 2-3 million will either stay home (punishing all candidates), vote third party or otherwise leave the contest blank, then you're a delusional hack at that.

It is not unfair at all for Bernie to be denied the nomination. If you neither party won a majority in the House they would have to make deals with a third party to elect their party leader Speaker, and the 2nd place party can get the speakership as well

[Adam Griffin]

Sanders can theoretically afford to do as bad (or at least close to it) as he did in the Confederacy: as long as he keeps the Southern periphery in check, it's fine (not to mention CA's effects). Clinton won TX 2:1 in 2016: even if Sanders loses slightly, it's really not a big deal, as he'll be taking 50+ delegates net away from a candidate like Biden. The only major contest where he's likely to get rat-f[inks]ked is FL.

Little known fact: Sanders won more delegates outside the Confederacy in 2016 than Clinton:

Non-Confederates:
Sanders   1448
Clinton   1432

Confederates:
Clinton   700
Sanders   332

This is why the other candidates need to stay in the race to deny Sanders the majority of the Non-Confederate delegates.
The Confederate delegates are already strongly Anti-Sanders.

Based on the South Carolina results, we can conclude with certainty that the undecided voters or late deciders are Anti-Sanders and that they will break for Biden. That means that Biden may even win Texas.

It still wouldn't stop him from winning the largest share. I know you'd love this, but if Sanders goes into the convention with the most delegates and gets denied the nomination, 5,000,000 Democratic votes in the margin disappear overnight and the election is over. Trumps gets 330+ EVs and possibly a majority of the PV to boot.

Could you be more of a hack?

Literally a Democratic Party officer, so I probably have more of a reason to cuddle up to THE BRAND than you - yet you somehow beat me at it! That's the definition of a hack.

If you don't see how a million or more people will flip their ballots out of spite + another 2-3 million will either stay home (punishing all candidates), vote third party or otherwise leave the contest blank, then you're a delusional hack at that.

It is not unfair at all for Bernie to be denied the nomination. If you neither party won a majority in the House they would have to make deals with a third party to elect their party leader Speaker, and the 2nd place party can get the speakership as well

If I wanted third-grade level political analysis from a 25 year-old, I'd go down to the insane asylum and interpret a drooling vegetable's hand gestures.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Sanders can theoretically afford to do as bad (or at least close to it) as he did in the Confederacy: as long as he keeps the Southern periphery in check, it's fine (not to mention CA's effects). Clinton won TX 2:1 in 2016: even if Sanders loses slightly, it's really not a big deal, as he'll be taking 50+ delegates net away from a candidate like Biden. The only major contest where he's likely to get rat-f[inks]ked is FL.

Little known fact: Sanders won more delegates outside the Confederacy in 2016 than Clinton:

Non-Confederates:
Sanders   1448
Clinton   1432

Confederates:
Clinton   700
Sanders   332

This is why the other candidates need to stay in the race to deny Sanders the majority of the Non-Confederate delegates.
The Confederate delegates are already strongly Anti-Sanders.

Based on the South Carolina results, we can conclude with certainty that the undecided voters or late deciders are Anti-Sanders and that they will break for Biden. That means that Biden may even win Texas.

It still wouldn't stop him from winning the largest share. I know you'd love this, but if Sanders goes into the convention with the most delegates and gets denied the nomination, 5,000,000 Democratic votes in the margin disappear overnight and the election is over. Trumps gets 330+ EVs and possibly a majority of the PV to boot.

Could you be more of a hack?

Literally a Democratic Party officer, so I probably have more of a reason to cuddle up to THE BRAND than you - yet you somehow beat me at it! That's the definition of a hack.

If you don't see how a million or more people will flip their ballots out of spite + another 2-3 million will either stay home (punishing all candidates), vote third party or otherwise leave the contest blank, then you're a delusional hack at that.

It is not unfair at all for Bernie to be denied the nomination. If you neither party won a majority in the House they would have to make deals with a third party to elect their party leader Speaker, and the 2nd place party can get the speakership as well

If I wanted third-grade level political analysis from a 25 year-old, I'd go down to the insane asylum and interpret a drooling vegetable's hand gestures.

Well than its your fault for not understanding basic third-grade concept of Most does not equal Majority.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Sanders can theoretically afford to do as bad (or at least close to it) as he did in the Confederacy: as long as he keeps the Southern periphery in check, it's fine (not to mention CA's effects). Clinton won TX 2:1 in 2016: even if Sanders loses slightly, it's really not a big deal, as he'll be taking 50+ delegates net away from a candidate like Biden. The only major contest where he's likely to get rat-f[inks]ked is FL.

Little known fact: Sanders won more delegates outside the Confederacy in 2016 than Clinton:

Non-Confederates:
Sanders   1448
Clinton   1432

Confederates:
Clinton   700
Sanders   332

This is why the other candidates need to stay in the race to deny Sanders the majority of the Non-Confederate delegates.
The Confederate delegates are already strongly Anti-Sanders.

Based on the South Carolina results, we can conclude with certainty that the undecided voters or late deciders are Anti-Sanders and that they will break for Biden. That means that Biden may even win Texas.

It still wouldn't stop him from winning the largest share. I know you'd love this, but if Sanders goes into the convention with the most delegates and gets denied the nomination, 5,000,000 Democratic votes in the margin disappear overnight and the election is over. Trumps gets 330+ EVs and possibly a majority of the PV to boot.

Could you be more of a hack?

Literally a Democratic Party officer, so I probably have more of a reason to cuddle up to THE BRAND than you - yet you somehow beat me at it! That's the definition of a hack.

If you don't see how a million or more people will flip their ballots out of spite + another 2-3 million will either stay home (punishing all candidates), vote third party or otherwise leave the contest blank, then you're a delusional hack at that.

I guarantee I have more Dem party credibility than you, but let's set that aside. A million people ARE NOT flipping their ballots if, for example, Sanders comes to the convention with 45% of the delegates, Biden comes with 40%, and Biden gets the nomination. There is no data backing this up. It's uncharted territory--but so is a contested convention. That said, it is clear that regular Democrats do not listen to TYT, do not have a devotion to Bernie Sanders, and are not willing to risk another 4 years of Trump over petty progressive petulance. Also, nice shift from 5 million to 1 million, but you should probably slash the margin 5x over again (and then pad the margin the other way with all the people who vote Biden but not Sanders.) In that vein, there is no empirical evidence that Bernie will inspire millions to turn out who would otherwise stay home. Conversely, it's pretty clear Biden gets higher AA turnout than Sanders and would get better margins among future former Republicans than Sanders in the places Dems absolutely have to win like the Research Triangle, North Atlanta Suburbs, Maricopa County, South Florida, Oakland County, and SEPA. You have drunk so much Bernie cool aid that you're completely unaware of how he is percieved off rose twitter.

[GoTfan]

Sanders can theoretically afford to do as bad (or at least close to it) as he did in the Confederacy: as long as he keeps the Southern periphery in check, it's fine (not to mention CA's effects). Clinton won TX 2:1 in 2016: even if Sanders loses slightly, it's really not a big deal, as he'll be taking 50+ delegates net away from a candidate like Biden. The only major contest where he's likely to get rat-f[inks]ked is FL.

Little known fact: Sanders won more delegates outside the Confederacy in 2016 than Clinton:

Non-Confederates:
Sanders   1448
Clinton   1432

Confederates:
Clinton   700
Sanders   332

This is why the other candidates need to stay in the race to deny Sanders the majority of the Non-Confederate delegates.
The Confederate delegates are already strongly Anti-Sanders.

Based on the South Carolina results, we can conclude with certainty that the undecided voters or late deciders are Anti-Sanders and that they will break for Biden. That means that Biden may even win Texas.

It still wouldn't stop him from winning the largest share. I know you'd love this, but if Sanders goes into the convention with the most delegates and gets denied the nomination, 5,000,000 Democratic votes in the margin disappear overnight and the election is over. Trumps gets 330+ EVs and possibly a majority of the PV to boot.

Could you be more of a hack?

Bit rich coming from you.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Sanders can theoretically afford to do as bad (or at least close to it) as he did in the Confederacy: as long as he keeps the Southern periphery in check, it's fine (not to mention CA's effects). Clinton won TX 2:1 in 2016: even if Sanders loses slightly, it's really not a big deal, as he'll be taking 50+ delegates net away from a candidate like Biden. The only major contest where he's likely to get rat-f[inks]ked is FL.

Little known fact: Sanders won more delegates outside the Confederacy in 2016 than Clinton:

Non-Confederates:
Sanders   1448
Clinton   1432

Confederates:
Clinton   700
Sanders   332

This is why the other candidates need to stay in the race to deny Sanders the majority of the Non-Confederate delegates.
The Confederate delegates are already strongly Anti-Sanders.

Based on the South Carolina results, we can conclude with certainty that the undecided voters or late deciders are Anti-Sanders and that they will break for Biden. That means that Biden may even win Texas.

It still wouldn't stop him from winning the largest share. I know you'd love this, but if Sanders goes into the convention with the most delegates and gets denied the nomination, 5,000,000 Democratic votes in the margin disappear overnight and the election is over. Trumps gets 330+ EVs and possibly a majority of the PV to boot.

Could you be more of a hack?

Bit rich coming from you.

That so?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Here's a good analogy . Say you are organizing a party and you are trying to get ice cream for the party but you find out the place your renting out will only let you choose one flavor of ice cream to give out to your guests at the party so you decide to do a survey and find out what people want.


You find out that 40% favorite flavor is Vanilla

35% favorite flavor is Chocolate

7% favorite flavor is Chocolate Chip

another favorite  7% flavor is Chocolate Fudge

5% favorite  flavor  Vanilla Bean

4% favorite  flavor Chocolate Brownie

2% is Strawberry



By Sanders folks logic you should order Vanilla since thats what most of the people's favorite flavor is but that doesnt make any sense because 53% of the people at the party is some variant of chocolate flavor. So the logical thing to do is order chocolate

[ElectionsGuy]

Here's a good analogy . Say you are organizing a party and you are trying to get ice cream for the party but you find out the place your renting out will only let you choose one flavor of ice cream to give out to your guests at the party so you decide to do a survey and find out what people want.


You find out that 40% favorite flavor is Vanilla

35% favorite flavor is Chocolate

7% favorite flavor is Chocolate Chip

another favorite  7% flavor is Chocolate Fudge

5% favorite  flavor  Vanilla Bean

4% favorite  flavor Chocolate Brownie

2% is Strawberry



By Sanders folks logic you should order Vanilla since thats what most of the people's favorite flavor is but that doesnt make any sense because 53% of the people at the party is some variant of chocolate flavor. So the logical thing to do is order chocolate

What happens when Chocolate chip people want vanilla as their 2nd choice?

[Dr. MB]

A contested convention isn't gonna do much good for anyone. Even if it's Bernie as the nominee. Trump gets to play Dems In Disarray for a looong time.

Now it's really just a scale of how much damage is gonna be done. Say Bernie's at 40% of delegates and Biden's at 39%, and Biden gets the nomination. Not good, but it could be worse for Biden.

Now let's replace Biden with Bloomberg who's at like, 33% and Bernie's at 45%. Magic Mike bribes the delegates and wins. You're looking at a Trump win so big that it would make even the most hackish Republican hack cream their pants and collapse from utter shock.

[GoTfan]

Here's a good analogy . Say you are organizing a party and you are trying to get ice cream for the party but you find out the place your renting out will only let you choose one flavor of ice cream to give out to your guests at the party so you decide to do a survey and find out what people want.


You find out that 40% favorite flavor is Vanilla

35% favorite flavor is Chocolate

7% favorite flavor is Chocolate Chip

another favorite  7% flavor is Chocolate Fudge

5% favorite  flavor  Vanilla Bean

4% favorite  flavor Chocolate Brownie

2% is Strawberry



By Sanders folks logic you should order Vanilla since thats what most of the people's favorite flavor is but that doesnt make any sense because 53% of the people at the party is some variant of chocolate flavor. So the logical thing to do is order chocolate

Because organising a party and picking a president are the same.

Fact is, Biden, Klobuchar, Buttigieg and Bloomberg are not some amorphous blob. They're four different people. If Sanders goes in with a plurality and then someone else with less votes and less delegates is picked, that's a guaranteed defeat for Democrats.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Here's a good analogy . Say you are organizing a party and you are trying to get ice cream for the party but you find out the place your renting out will only let you choose one flavor of ice cream to give out to your guests at the party so you decide to do a survey and find out what people want.


You find out that 40% favorite flavor is Vanilla

35% favorite flavor is Chocolate

7% favorite flavor is Chocolate Chip

another favorite  7% flavor is Chocolate Fudge

5% favorite  flavor  Vanilla Bean

4% favorite  flavor Chocolate Brownie

2% is Strawberry



By Sanders folks logic you should order Vanilla since thats what most of the people's favorite flavor is but that doesnt make any sense because 53% of the people at the party is some variant of chocolate flavor. So the logical thing to do is order chocolate

What happens when Chocolate chip people want vanilla as their 2nd choice?

Well there is no sure way to find that out(Since the survey only asks for your first choice) so the best way is to look at what flavor out of the top 2 the lesser flavors are most similar too.

[Adam Griffin]

I guarantee I have more Dem party credibility than you, but let's set that aside. A million people ARE NOT flipping their ballots if, for example, Sanders comes to the convention with 45% of the delegates, Biden comes with 40%, and Biden gets the nomination. There is no data backing this up. It's uncharted territory--but so is a contested convention. That said, it is clear that regular Democrats do not listen to TYT, do not have a devotion to Bernie Sanders, and are not willing to risk another 4 years of Trump over petty progressive petulance. Also, nice shift from 5 million to 1 million, but you should probably slash the margin 5x over again (and then pad the margin the other way with all the people who vote Biden but not Sanders.) In that vein, there is no empirical evidence that Bernie will inspire millions to turn out who would otherwise stay home. Conversely, it's pretty clear Biden gets higher AA turnout than Sanders and would get better margins among future former Republicans than Sanders in the places Dems absolutely have to win like the Research Triangle, North Atlanta Suburbs, Maricopa County, South Florida, Oakland County, and SEPA. You have drunk so much Bernie cool aid that you're completely unaware of how he is percieved off rose twitter.

Once you've held county party office, congressional party office and served as a DNC delegate, get back with me. If you can best me at a decade of organizing within the party in official capacity, field ops, leadership roles and the like, I'd love to hear about it, Mister Lurker! Otherwise, you can't outshow me without showing your cards.

I spend plenty of time around actual voters who look like the median American electorate. We can't all live around a bunch of privileged Bay Area t[inks]ts. I don't use Twitter because for both Roses and Donuts alike, it rots the brain.

All the evidence you need is to look at what happened in 2016: millions stayed home after Sanders lost fair and square, and the party nominated somebody uninspiring (most was due to the latter). What kind of backlash do you think is going to happen if Sanders comes into that convention with the most delegates and gets denied? It's going to be a magnitude above 2016 in terms of Sanders supporters tactically and spitefully punishing the party through one of several methods, not to mention the normies who just don't show up because Joe Biden or whomever is an uninspiring dullard of a candidate.

The rest isn't worth responding to because I've been addressing it (in particular, the notion that black turnout and support can somehow be changed) all night long in other threads, and I'm done repeating myself to the dullards about how intensely strong trends stretching back 20+ years work.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I guarantee I have more Dem party credibility than you, but let's set that aside. A million people ARE NOT flipping their ballots if, for example, Sanders comes to the convention with 45% of the delegates, Biden comes with 40%, and Biden gets the nomination. There is no data backing this up. It's uncharted territory--but so is a contested convention. That said, it is clear that regular Democrats do not listen to TYT, do not have a devotion to Bernie Sanders, and are not willing to risk another 4 years of Trump over petty progressive petulance. Also, nice shift from 5 million to 1 million, but you should probably slash the margin 5x over again (and then pad the margin the other way with all the people who vote Biden but not Sanders.) In that vein, there is no empirical evidence that Bernie will inspire millions to turn out who would otherwise stay home. Conversely, it's pretty clear Biden gets higher AA turnout than Sanders and would get better margins among future former Republicans than Sanders in the places Dems absolutely have to win like the Research Triangle, North Atlanta Suburbs, Maricopa County, South Florida, Oakland County, and SEPA. You have drunk so much Bernie cool aid that you're completely unaware of how he is percieved off rose twitter.

Once you've held county party office, congressional party office and served as a DNC delegate, get back with me. If you can best me at a decade of organizing within the party in official capacity, field ops, leadership roles and the like, I'd love to hear about it, Mister Lurker! Otherwise, you can't outshow me without showing your cards.

I spend plenty of time around actual voters who look like the median American electorate. We can't all live around a bunch of privileged Bay Area t[inks]ts. I don't use Twitter because for both Roses and Donuts alike, it rots the brain.

All the evidence you need is to look at what happened in 2016: millions stayed home after Sanders lost fair and square, and the party nominated somebody uninspiring (most was due to the latter). What kind of backlash do you think is going to happen if Sanders comes into that convention with the most delegates and gets denied? It's going to be a magnitude above 2016 in terms of Sanders supporters tactically and spitefully punishing the party through one of several methods, not to mention the normies who just don't show up because Joe Biden or whomever is an uninspiring dullard of a candidate.

The rest isn't worth responding to because I've been addressing it (in particular, the notion that black turnout and support can somehow be changed) all night long in other threads, and I'm done repeating myself to the dullards about how intensely strong trends stretching back 20+ years work.

I just love how Bernie Supporters forget that Bernie stayed in 2016 long after there was no chance he had in getting the most pledged delegates because he said he would make a case to the Super Delegates to vote for him.

[GoTfan]

I guarantee I have more Dem party credibility than you, but let's set that aside. A million people ARE NOT flipping their ballots if, for example, Sanders comes to the convention with 45% of the delegates, Biden comes with 40%, and Biden gets the nomination. There is no data backing this up. It's uncharted territory--but so is a contested convention. That said, it is clear that regular Democrats do not listen to TYT, do not have a devotion to Bernie Sanders, and are not willing to risk another 4 years of Trump over petty progressive petulance. Also, nice shift from 5 million to 1 million, but you should probably slash the margin 5x over again (and then pad the margin the other way with all the people who vote Biden but not Sanders.) In that vein, there is no empirical evidence that Bernie will inspire millions to turn out who would otherwise stay home. Conversely, it's pretty clear Biden gets higher AA turnout than Sanders and would get better margins among future former Republicans than Sanders in the places Dems absolutely have to win like the Research Triangle, North Atlanta Suburbs, Maricopa County, South Florida, Oakland County, and SEPA. You have drunk so much Bernie cool aid that you're completely unaware of how he is percieved off rose twitter.

Once you've held county party office, congressional party office and served as a DNC delegate, get back with me. If you can best me at a decade of organizing within the party in official capacity, field ops, leadership roles and the like, I'd love to hear about it, Mister Lurker! Otherwise, you can't outshow me without showing your cards.

I spend plenty of time around actual voters who look like the median American electorate. We can't all live around a bunch of privileged Bay Area t[inks]ts. I don't use Twitter because for both Roses and Donuts alike, it rots the brain.

All the evidence you need is to look at what happened in 2016: millions stayed home after Sanders lost fair and square, and the party nominated somebody uninspiring (most was due to the latter). What kind of backlash do you think is going to happen if Sanders comes into that convention with the most delegates and gets denied? It's going to be a magnitude above 2016 in terms of Sanders supporters tactically and spitefully punishing the party through one of several methods, not to mention the normies who just don't show up because Joe Biden or whomever is an uninspiring dullard of a candidate.

The rest isn't worth responding to because I've been addressing it (in particular, the notion that black turnout and support can somehow be changed) all night long in other threads, and I'm done repeating myself to the dullards about how intensely strong trends stretching back 20+ years work.

I just love how Bernie Supporters forget that Bernie stayed in 2016 long after there was no chance he had in getting the most pledged delegates because he said he would make a case to the Super Delegates to vote for him.

I love how Biden hacks ignore any legitimate grievances Sanders supporters have.

[Politics Fan]

Here's a good analogy . Say you are organizing a party and you are trying to get ice cream for the party but you find out the place your renting out will only let you choose one flavor of ice cream to give out to your guests at the party so you decide to do a survey and find out what people want.


You find out that 40% favorite flavor is Vanilla

35% favorite flavor is Chocolate

7% favorite flavor is Chocolate Chip

another favorite  7% flavor is Chocolate Fudge

5% favorite  flavor  Vanilla Bean

4% favorite  flavor Chocolate Brownie

2% is Strawberry



By Sanders folks logic you should order Vanilla since thats what most of the people's favorite flavor is but that doesnt make any sense because 53% of the people at the party is some variant of chocolate flavor. So the logical thing to do is order chocolate

What happens when Chocolate chip people want vanilla as their 2nd choice?

Well there is no sure way to find that out(Since the survey only asks for your first choice) so the best way is to look at what flavor out of the top 2 the lesser flavors are most similar too.

The problem is fairness which is a subjective concept is irrelevant here. Whether you think it’s fair or not for Sanders to be denied the nomination when he has a plurality of delegates doesn't matter. If that situation should arise I’m certain a majority of Sanders supporters will be angered and absolutely think it’s unfair leading to a non insignificant amount of them to either stay home altogether or vote third party for President.  

[Adam Griffin]

I guarantee I have more Dem party credibility than you, but let's set that aside. A million people ARE NOT flipping their ballots if, for example, Sanders comes to the convention with 45% of the delegates, Biden comes with 40%, and Biden gets the nomination. There is no data backing this up. It's uncharted territory--but so is a contested convention. That said, it is clear that regular Democrats do not listen to TYT, do not have a devotion to Bernie Sanders, and are not willing to risk another 4 years of Trump over petty progressive petulance. Also, nice shift from 5 million to 1 million, but you should probably slash the margin 5x over again (and then pad the margin the other way with all the people who vote Biden but not Sanders.) In that vein, there is no empirical evidence that Bernie will inspire millions to turn out who would otherwise stay home. Conversely, it's pretty clear Biden gets higher AA turnout than Sanders and would get better margins among future former Republicans than Sanders in the places Dems absolutely have to win like the Research Triangle, North Atlanta Suburbs, Maricopa County, South Florida, Oakland County, and SEPA. You have drunk so much Bernie cool aid that you're completely unaware of how he is percieved off rose twitter.

Once you've held county party office, congressional party office and served as a DNC delegate, get back with me. If you can best me at a decade of organizing within the party in official capacity, field ops, leadership roles and the like, I'd love to hear about it, Mister Lurker! Otherwise, you can't outshow me without showing your cards.

I spend plenty of time around actual voters who look like the median American electorate. We can't all live around a bunch of privileged Bay Area t[inks]ts. I don't use Twitter because for both Roses and Donuts alike, it rots the brain.

All the evidence you need is to look at what happened in 2016: millions stayed home after Sanders lost fair and square, and the party nominated somebody uninspiring (most was due to the latter). What kind of backlash do you think is going to happen if Sanders comes into that convention with the most delegates and gets denied? It's going to be a magnitude above 2016 in terms of Sanders supporters tactically and spitefully punishing the party through one of several methods, not to mention the normies who just don't show up because Joe Biden or whomever is an uninspiring dullard of a candidate.

The rest isn't worth responding to because I've been addressing it (in particular, the notion that black turnout and support can somehow be changed) all night long in other threads, and I'm done repeating myself to the dullards about how intensely strong trends stretching back 20+ years work.

I just love how Bernie Supporters forget that Bernie stayed in 2016 long after there was no chance he had in getting the most pledged delegates because he said he would make a case to the Super Delegates to vote for him.

Frankly, it was stupid for him to do. Frankly, I don't have a problem with the others trying to do it this year. As long as the superdelegates aren't stupid enough to accommodate them, it's all good.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Here's a good analogy . Say you are organizing a party and you are trying to get ice cream for the party but you find out the place your renting out will only let you choose one flavor of ice cream to give out to your guests at the party so you decide to do a survey and find out what people want.


You find out that 40% favorite flavor is Vanilla

35% favorite flavor is Chocolate

7% favorite flavor is Chocolate Chip

another favorite  7% flavor is Chocolate Fudge

5% favorite  flavor  Vanilla Bean

4% favorite  flavor Chocolate Brownie

2% is Strawberry



By Sanders folks logic you should order Vanilla since thats what most of the people's favorite flavor is but that doesnt make any sense because 53% of the people at the party is some variant of chocolate flavor. So the logical thing to do is order chocolate

What happens when Chocolate chip people want vanilla as their 2nd choice?

Well there is no sure way to find that out(Since the survey only asks for your first choice) so the best way is to look at what flavor out of the top 2 the lesser flavors are most similar too.

The problem is fairness which is a subjective concept is irrelevant here. Whether you think it’s fair or not for Sanders to be denied the nomination when he has a plurality of delegates dissent matter. If that situation should arise I’m certain a majority of Sanders supporters will be angered and absolutely think it’s unfair leading to a non insignificant amount of them to either stay home altogether or vote third party for President. 

Biden supporters and Centrists will be angered too if their bloc as the most votes and they are denied.

[Adam Griffin]

Biden supporters and Centrists will be angered too if their bloc as the most votes and they are denied.

There is no such thing as "centrist" voters in the way you keep trying to refer to it. Polls show that every candidate save for Bloomberg sees the largest share of their voters go to Sanders if they drop out. This notion that if you just add up all the candidates' supporters who aren't the candidate(s) you dislike that it means there's some magical ideological bloc there is ludicrous.

"Supporters of centrist candidates" =/= "centrist voters"; people have many different reasons for supporting candidates, most of which have nothing to do with their personal policy beliefs. See tonight, in SC, where black voters (who tend to be more supportive of redistribution and expansive government than white voters) backed Joe Biden, the "centrist" who will never do any of that.

[Politics Fan]

Here's a good analogy . Say you are organizing a party and you are trying to get ice cream for the party but you find out the place your renting out will only let you choose one flavor of ice cream to give out to your guests at the party so you decide to do a survey and find out what people want.


You find out that 40% favorite flavor is Vanilla

35% favorite flavor is Chocolate

7% favorite flavor is Chocolate Chip

another favorite  7% flavor is Chocolate Fudge

5% favorite  flavor  Vanilla Bean

4% favorite  flavor Chocolate Brownie

2% is Strawberry



By Sanders folks logic you should order Vanilla since thats what most of the people's favorite flavor is but that doesnt make any sense because 53% of the people at the party is some variant of chocolate flavor. So the logical thing to do is order chocolate

What happens when Chocolate chip people want vanilla as their 2nd choice?

Well there is no sure way to find that out(Since the survey only asks for your first choice) so the best way is to look at what flavor out of the top 2 the lesser flavors are most similar too.

The problem is fairness which is a subjective concept is irrelevant here. Whether you think it’s fair or not for Sanders to be denied the nomination when he has a plurality of delegates dissent matter. If that situation should arise I’m certain a majority of Sanders supporters will be angered and absolutely think it’s unfair leading to a non insignificant amount of them to either stay home altogether or vote third party for President. 

Biden supporters and Centrists will be angered too if their bloc as the most votes and they are denied.

You do realize that supporters of the other establishment candidates aren’t a monolithic bloc that will all want Biden or at the least will be opposed to Sanders. Also if Sanders has a strong plurality nom Sanders supporters are more likely to accept him as the nominee than the situation detailed above with Sanders supporters.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I guarantee I have more Dem party credibility than you, but let's set that aside. A million people ARE NOT flipping their ballots if, for example, Sanders comes to the convention with 45% of the delegates, Biden comes with 40%, and Biden gets the nomination. There is no data backing this up. It's uncharted territory--but so is a contested convention. That said, it is clear that regular Democrats do not listen to TYT, do not have a devotion to Bernie Sanders, and are not willing to risk another 4 years of Trump over petty progressive petulance. Also, nice shift from 5 million to 1 million, but you should probably slash the margin 5x over again (and then pad the margin the other way with all the people who vote Biden but not Sanders.) In that vein, there is no empirical evidence that Bernie will inspire millions to turn out who would otherwise stay home. Conversely, it's pretty clear Biden gets higher AA turnout than Sanders and would get better margins among future former Republicans than Sanders in the places Dems absolutely have to win like the Research Triangle, North Atlanta Suburbs, Maricopa County, South Florida, Oakland County, and SEPA. You have drunk so much Bernie cool aid that you're completely unaware of how he is percieved off rose twitter.

Once you've held county party office, congressional party office and served as a DNC delegate, get back with me. If you can best me at a decade of organizing within the party in official capacity, field ops, leadership roles and the like, I'd love to hear about it, Mister Lurker! Otherwise, you can't outshow me without showing your cards.

I spend plenty of time around actual voters who look like the median American electorate. We can't all live around a bunch of privileged Bay Area t[inks]ts. I don't use Twitter because for both Roses and Donuts alike, it rots the brain.

All the evidence you need is to look at what happened in 2016: millions stayed home after Sanders lost fair and square, and the party nominated somebody uninspiring (most was due to the latter). What kind of backlash do you think is going to happen if Sanders comes into that convention with the most delegates and gets denied? It's going to be a magnitude above 2016 in terms of Sanders supporters tactically and spitefully punishing the party through one of several methods, not to mention the normies who just don't show up because Joe Biden or whomever is an uninspiring dullard of a candidate.

The rest isn't worth responding to because I've been addressing it (in particular, the notion that black turnout and support can somehow be changed) all night long in other threads, and I'm done repeating myself to the dullards about how intensely strong trends stretching back 20+ years work.

I'm a senior advisor for a Dem with a national profile, have worked in the liberal DC think tank circuit, and travel to Washington on a regular basis to work with congressional leadership. I've worked presidential campaigns, worked on Capitol Hill, and led local nonprofits. Also, I'm a renter in a predominantly latino neighborhood in Los Angeles, and hardly have a privleged background. Not doxing myself beyond that.

And you still haven't addressed my point. Millions didn't stay home in 2016 because Sanders wasn't the nominee, and it's pretty clear there would have been fewer Romney-Sanders voters than Romney-Clinton voters. There is no real data indicating any significant number of Sanders supporters wouldn't back Biden in the general--at least, nothing outside the normal. What happens if neither candidate shows up with a majority but Biden wins on the second ballot is entirely dependent of Sanders and his associates, but I'd expect them to get in line behind the nominee as we'd do in the opposite position. Other than the 1968 debacle, there isn't much of a precedent for what happens in the event of a contested convention, but there is also no precedent establishing that whoever enters the convention with a weak plurality of delegates should get a blank cheque to be nominee. You don't get to hold the party hostage like that, and most Dems won't fall for it. Also, if you think "normies" are all waiting to turn out for the most radical nominee since Jenning Bryan then you just don't have your finger on the pulse of the nation.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Here's a good analogy . Say you are organizing a party and you are trying to get ice cream for the party but you find out the place your renting out will only let you choose one flavor of ice cream to give out to your guests at the party so you decide to do a survey and find out what people want.


You find out that 40% favorite flavor is Vanilla

35% favorite flavor is Chocolate

7% favorite flavor is Chocolate Chip

another favorite  7% flavor is Chocolate Fudge

5% favorite  flavor  Vanilla Bean

4% favorite  flavor Chocolate Brownie

2% is Strawberry



By Sanders folks logic you should order Vanilla since thats what most of the people's favorite flavor is but that doesnt make any sense because 53% of the people at the party is some variant of chocolate flavor. So the logical thing to do is order chocolate

What happens when Chocolate chip people want vanilla as their 2nd choice?

Well there is no sure way to find that out(Since the survey only asks for your first choice) so the best way is to look at what flavor out of the top 2 the lesser flavors are most similar too.

The problem is fairness which is a subjective concept is irrelevant here. Whether you think it’s fair or not for Sanders to be denied the nomination when he has a plurality of delegates dissent matter. If that situation should arise I’m certain a majority of Sanders supporters will be angered and absolutely think it’s unfair leading to a non insignificant amount of them to either stay home altogether or vote third party for President. 

Biden supporters and Centrists will be angered too if their bloc as the most votes and they are denied.

You do realize that supporters of the other establishment candidates aren’t a monolithic bloc that will all want Biden or at the least will be opposed to Sanders. Also if Sanders has a strong plurality nom Sanders supporters are more likely to accept him as the nominee than the situation detailed above with Sanders supporters.

People usually have whoever the frontrunner is at any given point as their 2nd choice. That doesn't mean the party has to or should rubber stamp the nomination of whoever comes into the convention with a plurality of delegates. Obviously, the most democratic thing would be a single day ranked-choice primary without delegates at all, but that isn't the system we have. There is no real way to feel out who the party wants in a 1v1 race, so working in the system we have, it's best to trust the discretion of the delegates and other candidates to pick a nominee, given that's ostensibly what we elect them to do.

[GoTfan]

I guarantee I have more Dem party credibility than you, but let's set that aside. A million people ARE NOT flipping their ballots if, for example, Sanders comes to the convention with 45% of the delegates, Biden comes with 40%, and Biden gets the nomination. There is no data backing this up. It's uncharted territory--but so is a contested convention. That said, it is clear that regular Democrats do not listen to TYT, do not have a devotion to Bernie Sanders, and are not willing to risk another 4 years of Trump over petty progressive petulance. Also, nice shift from 5 million to 1 million, but you should probably slash the margin 5x over again (and then pad the margin the other way with all the people who vote Biden but not Sanders.) In that vein, there is no empirical evidence that Bernie will inspire millions to turn out who would otherwise stay home. Conversely, it's pretty clear Biden gets higher AA turnout than Sanders and would get better margins among future former Republicans than Sanders in the places Dems absolutely have to win like the Research Triangle, North Atlanta Suburbs, Maricopa County, South Florida, Oakland County, and SEPA. You have drunk so much Bernie cool aid that you're completely unaware of how he is percieved off rose twitter.

Once you've held county party office, congressional party office and served as a DNC delegate, get back with me. If you can best me at a decade of organizing within the party in official capacity, field ops, leadership roles and the like, I'd love to hear about it, Mister Lurker! Otherwise, you can't outshow me without showing your cards.

I spend plenty of time around actual voters who look like the median American electorate. We can't all live around a bunch of privileged Bay Area t[inks]ts. I don't use Twitter because for both Roses and Donuts alike, it rots the brain.

All the evidence you need is to look at what happened in 2016: millions stayed home after Sanders lost fair and square, and the party nominated somebody uninspiring (most was due to the latter). What kind of backlash do you think is going to happen if Sanders comes into that convention with the most delegates and gets denied? It's going to be a magnitude above 2016 in terms of Sanders supporters tactically and spitefully punishing the party through one of several methods, not to mention the normies who just don't show up because Joe Biden or whomever is an uninspiring dullard of a candidate.

The rest isn't worth responding to because I've been addressing it (in particular, the notion that black turnout and support can somehow be changed) all night long in other threads, and I'm done repeating myself to the dullards about how intensely strong trends stretching back 20+ years work.

I'm a senior advisor for a Dem with a national profile, have worked in the liberal DC think tank circuit, and travel to Washington on a regular basis to work with congressional leadership. I've worked presidential campaigns, worked on Capitol Hill, and led local nonprofits. Also, I'm a renter in a predominantly latino neighborhood in Los Angeles, and hardly have a privleged background. Not doxing myself beyond that.

And you still haven't addressed my point. Millions didn't stay home in 2016 because Sanders wasn't the nominee, and it's pretty clear there would have been fewer Romney-Sanders voters than Romney-Clinton voters. There is no real data indicating any significant number of Sanders supporters wouldn't back Biden in the general--at least, nothing outside the normal. What happens if neither candidate shows up with a majority but Biden wins on the second ballot is entirely dependent of Sanders and his associates, but I'd expect them to get in line behind the nominee as we'd do in the opposite position. Other than the 1968 debacle, there isn't much of a precedent for what happens in the event of a contested convention, but there is also no precedent establishing that whoever enters the convention with a weak plurality of delegates should get a blank cheque to be nominee. You don't get to hold the party hostage like that, and most Dems won't fall for it. Also, if you think "normies" are all waiting to turn out for the most radical nominee since Jenning Bryan then you just don't have your finger on the pulse of the nation.

Yeah,those Romney-Clinton voters delivered Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, didn't they? What was that phrase again? "We'll pick up to moderate Republicans in Philadelphia suburbs"?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I guarantee I have more Dem party credibility than you, but let's set that aside. A million people ARE NOT flipping their ballots if, for example, Sanders comes to the convention with 45% of the delegates, Biden comes with 40%, and Biden gets the nomination. There is no data backing this up. It's uncharted territory--but so is a contested convention. That said, it is clear that regular Democrats do not listen to TYT, do not have a devotion to Bernie Sanders, and are not willing to risk another 4 years of Trump over petty progressive petulance. Also, nice shift from 5 million to 1 million, but you should probably slash the margin 5x over again (and then pad the margin the other way with all the people who vote Biden but not Sanders.) In that vein, there is no empirical evidence that Bernie will inspire millions to turn out who would otherwise stay home. Conversely, it's pretty clear Biden gets higher AA turnout than Sanders and would get better margins among future former Republicans than Sanders in the places Dems absolutely have to win like the Research Triangle, North Atlanta Suburbs, Maricopa County, South Florida, Oakland County, and SEPA. You have drunk so much Bernie cool aid that you're completely unaware of how he is percieved off rose twitter.

Once you've held county party office, congressional party office and served as a DNC delegate, get back with me. If you can best me at a decade of organizing within the party in official capacity, field ops, leadership roles and the like, I'd love to hear about it, Mister Lurker! Otherwise, you can't outshow me without showing your cards.

I spend plenty of time around actual voters who look like the median American electorate. We can't all live around a bunch of privileged Bay Area t[inks]ts. I don't use Twitter because for both Roses and Donuts alike, it rots the brain.

All the evidence you need is to look at what happened in 2016: millions stayed home after Sanders lost fair and square, and the party nominated somebody uninspiring (most was due to the latter). What kind of backlash do you think is going to happen if Sanders comes into that convention with the most delegates and gets denied? It's going to be a magnitude above 2016 in terms of Sanders supporters tactically and spitefully punishing the party through one of several methods, not to mention the normies who just don't show up because Joe Biden or whomever is an uninspiring dullard of a candidate.

The rest isn't worth responding to because I've been addressing it (in particular, the notion that black turnout and support can somehow be changed) all night long in other threads, and I'm done repeating myself to the dullards about how intensely strong trends stretching back 20+ years work.

I'm a senior advisor for a Dem with a national profile, have worked in the liberal DC think tank circuit, and travel to Washington on a regular basis to work with congressional leadership. I've worked presidential campaigns, worked on Capitol Hill, and led local nonprofits. Also, I'm a renter in a predominantly latino neighborhood in Los Angeles, and hardly have a privleged background. Not doxing myself beyond that.

And you still haven't addressed my point. Millions didn't stay home in 2016 because Sanders wasn't the nominee, and it's pretty clear there would have been fewer Romney-Sanders voters than Romney-Clinton voters. There is no real data indicating any significant number of Sanders supporters wouldn't back Biden in the general--at least, nothing outside the normal. What happens if neither candidate shows up with a majority but Biden wins on the second ballot is entirely dependent of Sanders and his associates, but I'd expect them to get in line behind the nominee as we'd do in the opposite position. Other than the 1968 debacle, there isn't much of a precedent for what happens in the event of a contested convention, but there is also no precedent establishing that whoever enters the convention with a weak plurality of delegates should get a blank cheque to be nominee. You don't get to hold the party hostage like that, and most Dems won't fall for it. Also, if you think "normies" are all waiting to turn out for the most radical nominee since Jenning Bryan then you just don't have your finger on the pulse of the nation.

Yeah,those Romney-Clinton voters delivered Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, didn't they? What was that phrase again? "We'll pick up to moderate Republicans in Philadelphia suburbs"?

Yeah. It didn't work. That doesn't mean we wouldn't have lost by more if Sanders was the nominee. At least a Clinton noination accelerated trends which helped Dems in 2018 and will help us in the 2020s.

[GoTfan]

I guarantee I have more Dem party credibility than you, but let's set that aside. A million people ARE NOT flipping their ballots if, for example, Sanders comes to the convention with 45% of the delegates, Biden comes with 40%, and Biden gets the nomination. There is no data backing this up. It's uncharted territory--but so is a contested convention. That said, it is clear that regular Democrats do not listen to TYT, do not have a devotion to Bernie Sanders, and are not willing to risk another 4 years of Trump over petty progressive petulance. Also, nice shift from 5 million to 1 million, but you should probably slash the margin 5x over again (and then pad the margin the other way with all the people who vote Biden but not Sanders.) In that vein, there is no empirical evidence that Bernie will inspire millions to turn out who would otherwise stay home. Conversely, it's pretty clear Biden gets higher AA turnout than Sanders and would get better margins among future former Republicans than Sanders in the places Dems absolutely have to win like the Research Triangle, North Atlanta Suburbs, Maricopa County, South Florida, Oakland County, and SEPA. You have drunk so much Bernie cool aid that you're completely unaware of how he is percieved off rose twitter.

Once you've held county party office, congressional party office and served as a DNC delegate, get back with me. If you can best me at a decade of organizing within the party in official capacity, field ops, leadership roles and the like, I'd love to hear about it, Mister Lurker! Otherwise, you can't outshow me without showing your cards.

I spend plenty of time around actual voters who look like the median American electorate. We can't all live around a bunch of privileged Bay Area t[inks]ts. I don't use Twitter because for both Roses and Donuts alike, it rots the brain.

All the evidence you need is to look at what happened in 2016: millions stayed home after Sanders lost fair and square, and the party nominated somebody uninspiring (most was due to the latter). What kind of backlash do you think is going to happen if Sanders comes into that convention with the most delegates and gets denied? It's going to be a magnitude above 2016 in terms of Sanders supporters tactically and spitefully punishing the party through one of several methods, not to mention the normies who just don't show up because Joe Biden or whomever is an uninspiring dullard of a candidate.

The rest isn't worth responding to because I've been addressing it (in particular, the notion that black turnout and support can somehow be changed) all night long in other threads, and I'm done repeating myself to the dullards about how intensely strong trends stretching back 20+ years work.

I'm a senior advisor for a Dem with a national profile, have worked in the liberal DC think tank circuit, and travel to Washington on a regular basis to work with congressional leadership. I've worked presidential campaigns, worked on Capitol Hill, and led local nonprofits. Also, I'm a renter in a predominantly latino neighborhood in Los Angeles, and hardly have a privleged background. Not doxing myself beyond that.

And you still haven't addressed my point. Millions didn't stay home in 2016 because Sanders wasn't the nominee, and it's pretty clear there would have been fewer Romney-Sanders voters than Romney-Clinton voters. There is no real data indicating any significant number of Sanders supporters wouldn't back Biden in the general--at least, nothing outside the normal. What happens if neither candidate shows up with a majority but Biden wins on the second ballot is entirely dependent of Sanders and his associates, but I'd expect them to get in line behind the nominee as we'd do in the opposite position. Other than the 1968 debacle, there isn't much of a precedent for what happens in the event of a contested convention, but there is also no precedent establishing that whoever enters the convention with a weak plurality of delegates should get a blank cheque to be nominee. You don't get to hold the party hostage like that, and most Dems won't fall for it. Also, if you think "normies" are all waiting to turn out for the most radical nominee since Jenning Bryan then you just don't have your finger on the pulse of the nation.

Yeah,those Romney-Clinton voters delivered Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, didn't they? What was that phrase again? "We'll pick up to moderate Republicans in Philadelphia suburbs"?

Yeah. It didn't work. That doesn't mean we wouldn't have lost by more if Sanders was the nominee. At least a Clinton noination accelerated trends which helped Dems in 2018 and will help us in the 2020s.

You do know what Einstein's definition of insanity is, right?