SC-Data For Progress: Biden +9

[Gracile]

Eyeballing their crosstabs, the white nationalists at Data For Progress weighted to a 49% white, 35% black sample? Junk it.

it's likely to be a bit whiter than last time, simply because its an open primary with no Republican contest - but not nearly that much.

The Democratic and Republican primaries have historically been on different days in SC, so I’m not sure there will be a huge influx of Republican voters. It’d have to be a pretty conscious choice for a usual Republican voter to vote on Saturday. I do think there’s a pool of white voters who will vote for the first time in a Democratic primary, but not enough to get anywhere near what this poll is projecting.

The Republican presidential primary was canceled by the state party, so the only presidential primary they could vote in is the Democratic one. It’s not that big of a choice for some GOP voters.

[NOVA Green]

Some things to consider wrt potential black reduction in primary vote share:

1) SC's black population % is declining, and Democrats have basically reached their floor among whites. In multiple Southern states, black population % is increasing and black vote share is barely holding steady there

2) For black women specifically, Obama & Clinton were inspirational (first viable black nominee; first viable female nominee) and black voters are 60% female here - I expect any absolute drop will disproportionately (i.e. more than 60% of it) be among females

3) No GOP primary - inevitably there will be white Republicans crossing over for the hell of it or to try to cause chaos, as well as potentially some growth among post-2016 white GOP defectors

Problem with items such as "Operation Chaos" is that it tends to be relatively uncoordinated, meaning that 'PUB voters & 'PUB INDY Leaners voting in a DEM PRIM frequently tend to cancel out their votes a bit, since the vast majority of true solid INCUM PRES Voters don't have time to muck around with all that (Not that it couldn't impact polling numbers in various ways)...

You have an interesting point in terms of '16 GE 3rd Party Voters and potential defectors....

In '16 only about 4% of SC voted 3rd Party.... so this would likely be minimal changes around the margins...

Potential defectors might be a more interesting case, since we don't really have any recent GE SC polls other than that East Carolina University Poll from way back in very early FEB where Trump is only at 52-40 against Biden or Bernie....

SC despite it's racist history is not a completely backwards State... there are tons of jobs in the Auto Sector, Aerospace...

14% of the workers in SC are in the Manufacturing Sector, which places it quite a decent clip higher than the National Average....

Hospitality Sector (9%) ranks a couple notches above the ntl avg, likely as a result as being a "destination" for folks from the Northeast/Central Atlantic as a place to check out some pretty cool beaches and do some golfing, while visiting your 2nd home....

Additionally, we got this weird bag in SC when it comes to not only Vets, but also active duty service members and those around military base communities....

As I have stated before the USAF tends to be one of the most Republican branches of the US Military and are heavily represented in SC, along with pretty much every other branch of the of the Armed Forces ....

Now we also have major USMC Bases in SC, a pretty decent sized US Army Center in Fort Jackson....

https://militarybases.com/south-carolina/

Although it is true that frequently members of the Armed Forces vote infrequently or vote in other States or places, frequently in Military Base Communities there are dependents in the form of spouses, or even adult children living at home, especially for Career Military folks that tend to be more likely clustered around specific Military Base Towns....

For example in '08 Bernie was able in the GE to dominate, or at least perform exceptionally well in many Military Base Communities against McCain....

Would not be surprised to see Biden gain some numbers among Military Base Communities in SC Tomorrow....

[Adam Griffin]

UPDATE: So SC actually publishes daily absentee ballot reports by county and by race (click here for the daily data reports).

Thus far, the 2020 absentee breakdown is 57.7% black, 40.7% white & 1.6% other. In 2016, absentees were 75.4% black, 23.5% white & 1.1% other! Black turnout thus far - as I anticipated - is down by over 10% in raw numbers while white turnout is double what it was in 2016. Overall turnout is 15% higher than 2016.

I definitely now can see a 55% black (or less) electorate being possible, if not likely. This poll might not be as off as we're thinking...

https://twitter.com/AsInMarx/status/1233265587297619968

[NOVA Green]

UPDATE: So SC actually publishes daily absentee ballot reports by county and by race (click here for the daily data reports).

Thus far, the 2020 absentee breakdown is 57.7% black, 40.7% white & 1.6% other. In 2016, absentees were 75.4% black, 23.5% white & 1.1% other! Black turnout thus far - as I anticipated - is down by over 10% in raw numbers while white turnout is double what it was in 2016. Overall turnout is 15% higher than 2016.

I definitely now can see a 55% black (or less) electorate being possible, if not likely. This poll might not be as off as we're thinking...

https://twitter.com/AsInMarx/status/1233265587297619968

Hmm... very interesting....

So assuming this a TOT PRIM VOTE vs a DEM PRIM VOTE what does this mean?

We have seen in previous Primaries that many PUBs show up enthusiastically to vote for Trump despite the fact he is running virtually unopposed...

Now interested in hearing your argument regarding the '20 SC DEM Primaries being only 55% Black (Although certainly Biden is not only a low-energy candidate among many AA voters compared to HRC/Obama in the '08 & '16 Primaries plus the Sanders campaign has quite a bit more street cred than back in '16 within SC bcs not only of name recognition but also looking like someone who can beat Trump)....

Don't forgot all of those Black voters backing Trump in '16 within SC....

[Adam Griffin]

So assuming this a TOT PRIM VOTE vs a DEM PRIM VOTE what does this mean?

I'm not sure I'm following here: both sets of numbers above ('16 and '20) are for Democratic primaries only. Or did you mean something else?

Now interested in hearing your argument regarding the '20 SC DEM Primaries being only 55% Black (Although certainly Biden is not only a low-energy candidate among many AA voters compared to HRC/Obama in the '08 & '16 Primaries plus the Sanders campaign has quite a bit more street cred than back in '16 within SC bcs not only of name recognition but also looking like someone who can beat Trump)....

Mainly it's just based on what I outlined earlier (potentially lower black enthusiasm, black pop shrinking faster than white pop, open primary with no GOP contest & GOP defectors since the 2016 primary all combined). However, I will point out that the 55% black number is pegged relative to the 61% that CNN showed in 2016 (i.e. my real belief is that black vote share drops by 6 points or more). I bring this up because it would not surprise me if the actual black share of primary voters in SC in '16 was in the mid-to-high 60s. Why?

Case in point: GA's 2016 D primary exit poll showed a 51% black, 39% white electorate...and the Secretary of State showed a 59% black, 31% white electorate. There's actually quite a bit of scattered evidence across multiple states to suggest that exit polls in the '16 primary undersampled black voters, with the indirect side effect being that black Sanders voters got counted as white Bernie Bros in the exit polling data as the way to explain Sanders' vote shares in blacker states.

[Adam Griffin]

Also worth noting that tomorrow (today) is the last day of early voting (obviously) and it will likely be a big day voting-wise. Maybe some of this huge discrepancy will even out; maybe not.

[NOVA Green]

So assuming this a TOT PRIM VOTE vs a DEM PRIM VOTE what does this mean?

I'm not sure I'm following here: both sets of numbers above ('16 and '20) are for Democratic primaries only. Or did you mean something else?

Now interested in hearing your argument regarding the '20 SC DEM Primaries being only 55% Black (Although certainly Biden is not only a low-energy candidate among many AA voters compared to HRC/Obama in the '08 & '16 Primaries plus the Sanders campaign has quite a bit more street cred than back in '16 within SC bcs not only of name recognition but also looking like someone who can beat Trump)....

Mainly it's just based on what I outlined earlier (potentially lower black enthusiasm, black pop shrinking faster than white pop, open primary with no GOP contest & GOP defectors since the 2016 primary all combined). However, I will point out that the 55% black number is pegged relative to the 61% that CNN showed in 2016 (i.e. my real belief is that black vote share drops by 6 points or more). I bring this up because it would not surprise me if the actual black share of primary voters in SC in '16 was in the mid-to-high 60s. Why?

Case in point: GA's 2016 D primary exit poll showed a 51% black, 39% white electorate...and the Secretary of State showed a 59% black, 31% white electorate. There's actually quite a bit of scattered evidence across multiple states to suggest that exit polls in the '16 primary undersampled black voters, with the indirect side effect being that black Sanders voters got counted as white Bernie Bros in the exit polling data as the way to explain Sanders' vote shares in blacker states.

That's an interesting point.... 

If I may take it slightly further.... *perhaps* it might possibly be explained by changed attitudes regarding identity over the past decades, even in a former Jim Crow State, where younger voters in particular love whom they love, date who they like to date, and that a growing number of voters of those from "inter-racial" relationships doesn't give a crap about this whole "Black" and "White" construct since after all you can have two parents you love, and extended family from all over, but in a CRVA State you are still required to "self-report" identity....

I digress, and still believe Biden will likely win SC by 15+% Tomorrow, but it will be interesting to see how Data for Progress performs in the Dirty Deep South.....

[Adam Griffin]

So since tomorrow is Election Day, switching to returned ballots (plus in-person EV) makes more sense.

Based on the crosstabs we've seen from multiple polls, the EV (assuming over-representation of Sanders voters isn't a thing) would be something like Biden 40, Sanders 24.

SC Returned Mail Ballots + In-Person EV:
2016: Black 76.2%, White 23.0%, Other 0.8% (54041 votes)
2020: Black 62.1%, White 36.6%, Other 1.3% (70717 votes)

Raw Vote Change (% of '16):
Black: 106%
Hispa: 170%
Asian: 181%
Other: 191%
White: 208%

https://twitter.com/AsInMarx/status/1233506205269733376

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Blacks arent a monolithic group behind Biden and Bernie, if it's close, can win.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

So since tomorrow is Election Day, switching to returned ballots (plus in-person EV) makes more sense.

Based on the crosstabs we've seen from multiple polls, the EV (assuming over-representation of Sanders voters isn't a thing) would be something like Biden 40, Sanders 24.

SC Returned Mail Ballots + In-Person EV:
2016: Black 76.2%, White 23.0%, Other 0.8% (54041 votes)
2020: Black 62.1%, White 36.6%, Other 1.3% (70717 votes)

Raw Vote Change (% of '16):
Black: 106%
Hispa: 170%
Asian: 181%
Other: 191%
White: 208%

https://twitter.com/AsInMarx/status/1233506205269733376

Quite a substantial increase in white voter share. Perhaps some of the polls that had lower AfAm vote share may not be as off in that respect as thought.

[2016]

So since tomorrow is Election Day, switching to returned ballots (plus in-person EV) makes more sense.

Based on the crosstabs we've seen from multiple polls, the EV (assuming over-representation of Sanders voters isn't a thing) would be something like Biden 40, Sanders 24.

SC Returned Mail Ballots + In-Person EV:
2016: Black 76.2%, White 23.0%, Other 0.8% (54041 votes)
2020: Black 62.1%, White 36.6%, Other 1.3% (70717 votes)

Raw Vote Change (% of '16):
Black: 106%
Hispa: 170%
Asian: 181%
Other: 191%
White: 208%

https://twitter.com/AsInMarx/status/1233506205269733376

Quite a substantial increase in white voter share. Perhaps some of the polls that had lower AfAm vote share may not be as off in that respect as thought.

The lower the AA Turnout is, the tighter the margin between Biden and Sanders will be.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

So since tomorrow is Election Day, switching to returned ballots (plus in-person EV) makes more sense.

Based on the crosstabs we've seen from multiple polls, the EV (assuming over-representation of Sanders voters isn't a thing) would be something like Biden 40, Sanders 24.

SC Returned Mail Ballots + In-Person EV:
2016: Black 76.2%, White 23.0%, Other 0.8% (54041 votes)
2020: Black 62.1%, White 36.6%, Other 1.3% (70717 votes)

Raw Vote Change (% of '16):
Black: 106%
Hispa: 170%
Asian: 181%
Other: 191%
White: 208%

https://twitter.com/AsInMarx/status/1233506205269733376

Quite a substantial increase in white voter share. Perhaps some of the polls that had lower AfAm vote share may not be as off in that respect as thought.

The lower the AA Turnout is, the tighter the margin between Biden and Sanders will be.

it may depend on where that lower AA turnout is.

If it's in the rural lowcountry, yeah, but if it's in Columbia, the difference will be more minor, imo.

[Bidenworth2020]

Kind of crazy Biden leads by that much with that breakdown.

[NOVA Green]

So since tomorrow is Election Day, switching to returned ballots (plus in-person EV) makes more sense.

Based on the crosstabs we've seen from multiple polls, the EV (assuming over-representation of Sanders voters isn't a thing) would be something like Biden 40, Sanders 24.

SC Returned Mail Ballots + In-Person EV:
2016: Black 76.2%, White 23.0%, Other 0.8% (54041 votes)
2020: Black 62.1%, White 36.6%, Other 1.3% (70717 votes)

Raw Vote Change (% of '16):
Black: 106%
Hispa: 170%
Asian: 181%
Other: 191%
White: 208%

https://twitter.com/AsInMarx/status/1233506205269733376

Quite a substantial increase in white voter share. Perhaps some of the polls that had lower AfAm vote share may not be as off in that respect as thought.

Key question would be: "If so then why?"

Is it that DEM PRIM Candidates are maxing early TO among "White Voters"?

If so, which Campaigns, considering that EV is more restrictive in SC than many other States?

Is there an "Operation Chaos" campaign among SC PUBs to sabotage the SC DEM PRIM, or possibly a shift in PUB leaning voters shifting over to vote DEM bcs their support for Trump is fading?

Is Black enthusiasm in SC really that much lower than it was in '16?

Fmr President Griffin is in my Top (10) Atlas Posters when it comes to political stuff, and arguably one of the best when it comes to the former states of the Confederacy, so have utmost respect for his opinions on such matters....

Could just be an outlier poll, but interested bcs this poll is a bit different than most of the others we have seen over the past few days....

Confused in Oregon....

[Adam Griffin]

Kind of crazy Biden leads by that much with that breakdown.

Mainly because most of the polls we've seen show Sanders getting roughly the same share of white and black voters (~25%), while Biden is getting double the share of black vote as he is the white vote (50% vs 25%).

So basically the white-black electorate composition shifting back and forth only moves the margin half as much as you might expect in other types of contests; if Sanders was getting as much of the white vote as Biden is the black vote, he'd be down by 6 in this sample instead of 16.

[Adam Griffin]

The real question is: does this massive racial shift in EV relative to 2016 indicate that the primary is going to be a lot whiter than 4 years ago, or is it an evening out of the massive discrepancies in racial composition between EV/ED that we've seen in past cycles now that larger shares of voters are using early voting? Because if Election Day voters look identical to early voters along racial lines, then the share of the primary that is black will be basically the same as 4 years ago.

I know in GA, the racial gap between the two vote types has reduced quite a bit over the past couple of cycles, but SC's voters seem to still not be using early voting quite as much as many other states.

[2016]

The real question is: does this massive racial shift in EV relative to 2016 indicate that the primary is going to be a lot whiter than 4 years ago, or is it an evening out of the massive discrepancies in racial composition between EV/ED that we've seen in past cycles now that larger shares of voters are using early voting? I know in GA, the racial gap between the two vote types has reduced quite a bit over the past couple of cycles, but SC's voters seem to still not be using early voting quite as much as many other states.

Good Question: The Final break down of the '16 Absentee Vote was 76.2 Black/23.0 White. The Final Overall Electorate in SC in '16 was 61% Black/35 White per Exit Polls. So it dwindled down throughout E-Day by 15 Points. If rougly the same happens tomorrow we're potentially at a 55-45 split or even lower. The Polls who show Biden up 15 Points or more operating on a '16 Model. I am really curious for tomorrow. I still think Medicare for All looms large. If the Unions get out their Voters this could be a lot tighter than expected. And I still say if M4A polls a Majority like it was in the three other States things could get really messed up for the Pollsters.

70K Votes have already being cast, '16 had 370K Total Votes.

And in 2008 when the first African-American was running for POTUS they had a 530K Turnout.

It will be probably in between tomorrow methinks.

[Oryxslayer]

Looks like Data for Progress is going to miss SC by a fairly large margin. Potentially they have a southern problem when compared to the more whiter/liberal electorates which are easier to model well with their methods. Potentially calls their TX/VA/NC polls into question, especially since Biden's victory is going to be the story for Sunday/Monday.

[CookieDamage]

Yeah this was a flop for them.

[cvparty]

the end of an era