SC-Data For Progress: Biden +9

[Adam Griffin]

Biden - 34
Sanders - 25
Steyer - 13
Buttigieg - 13
Warren - 7
Klobuchar - 5
Tulsi - 3

https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/2020/2/27/biden-maintains-lead-in-south-carolina
http://filesforprogress.org/datasets/2020/2/sc/sc_2_27_2020.pdf

[Tender Branson]

It would be cool if ButtiPete gets above 15%, but he’d either need to do really well with whites or get a decent 6-8% among blacks, or a combination of both ...

I’d see it as a „win“ for him ...  

[Shadows]

Klobuchar & Steyer polling worse than expectations have benefitted Biden. Klobuchar would probably have been polling @ 8-9% & Steyer @ 17-18% after NH.

[cvparty]

this is the only poll we can trust

[n1240]

The race breakdown in their weighted N is way off, so it's probably overestimating Buttigieg while underestimating Biden (and roughly getting Sanders' vote share correct).

[Adam Griffin]

This is a 49% white, 36% black sample...

Granted, some of that might be offset by the fact that under-45s are only 24%, but still: geez.

The race discrepancy wouldn't affect Sanders much (21% with blacks and 25% with whites), but definitely Biden (51% vs 26%, respectively).

[heatcharger]

Eyeballing their crosstabs, the white nationalists at Data For Progress weighted to a 49% white, 35% black sample? Junk it.

[Adam Griffin]

"My mind is made up": Biden 38-30
"I am considering other options": Biden 36-17

White: Biden 26-25
Black: Biden 51-21

Under-45: Sanders 50-14
45+: Biden 40-17

No College: Biden 32-28
College: Biden 38-21

[Tender Branson]

I expect the electorate to be whiter than usual tomorrow, something we have seen in the previous contests so far.

Probably 45% white, 50% black, 5% other.

If Pete gets 20% of Whites and 6% of Blacks and 20% of others, he’d get 13%.

With 10% of Blacks, he’d get 15% overall ...

But SC is a tough terrain ...

[ShamDam]

As a Sanders supporter, I could very much live with a result like this.

[Adam Griffin]

I expect the electorate to be whiter than usual tomorrow, something we have seen in the previous contests so far.

I do as well, but more in the 55% black range rather than 50% (and certainly not 35%).

I think a lot of people are underestimating just how inspirational both '08 and '16 were for black voters in the South in particular (prospect of first black President, then the first female President; black voters are 60% female in the South). There's nothing inherently inspirational along these lines in this year's primary for black women in particular.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

The gold standard has spoken. This would be a good result for Bernie. As long as Biden doesn't blow it out, Bernie should have no issues on Super Tuesday. A single digit loss in what is demographically one of the very worst states for Sanders is perfectly fine.


- edit - erm, yeah that sample does sound like it is not enough African American vote share. It does make sense the white vote share will probably be a bit higher than 2016 because there is not a significant GOP primary though. But not by a huge amount.

[NOVA Green]

*** GOLD STANDARD DUMP***

We will see how this plays out tomorrow, and did anybody see a range of when the poll was collected?

These guys have an interesting polling methodology where they also target LV DEMs based upon Prior voting History and incorporate TMs into the mix to increase their response rates and create both a larger pool, but also access voters who are less likely to respond to traditional land-line/cell or email polling requests....

IDK if this is the state of the race in SC at whatever "fixed point in time & Space" it is, but assuming it is a relatively recent sample (post NV, with a mixture of post SC Debate voters) *and* that they are properly hitting a decent DEM PRIM demographic balance of SC, if they get 4/4 I will def be interested to see if there is a way to pay to get early numbers...

[DrScholl]

A majority white electorate is very unlikely.

[Xing]

This pollster has been pretty good at getting Sanders’s number. I think he could get close to 25%, though they’re very likely low-balling Biden’s number quite a bit. An electorate with a higher percentage of black voters would probably put him closer to 40%.

[ElectionsGuy]

This poll (even though it's a "gold standard" thus far) significantly undersampled blacks, but also undersampled young voters to a mediocre degree. I imagine fixing for those things you'd find a result more like this (a guestimate):

Biden - 39
Sanders  - 26
Steyer - 14
Warren - 8
Buttigieg - 7
Klobuchar - 4
Gabbard - 2

[Adam Griffin]

It's 14 points whiter than 2016 and 25 points less black. They have non-black, non-white voters (which aren't listed) going from 4% in 2016 to 15% this year, and math tells us they have Bernie winning like 35% of their votes.

The white jump is a little over half of the difference in the black shift, which mainly affects Biden's numbers, but that non-black non-white shift is the rest, and that direct impacts Bernie's numbers pretty meaningfully if wrong. You'd basically revise this to Biden +20 (42-22) if you assumed things looked exactly as they did (solely based on race) in 2016.

[Eraserhead]

I think people will be surprised how much whiter the electorate ends up being this time.

Anyway, these guys have kind of earned the benefit of the doubt after basically nailing the last three races in a row. When I make my personal prediction I'll be giving Biden a bigger victory than this though. 

[Mehmentum]

Yeah, the racial numbers are weird and some quick and dirty adjustments to a 55-40-5 electorate would give Biden a 16 point win.

Since they've been so good in the early states... I'd say its possible they're picking up on something and the electorate is whiter than expected.

But personally, I'm expecting a ~15 point Biden win.

[ElectionsGuy]

Why are we expecting the electorate to be whiter than 2016? Was Hillary really the inspirational GOTV candidate?

[RI]

Why are we expecting the electorate to be whiter than 2016? Was Hillary really the inspirational GOTV candidate?

Partially from crossover voters, I'd imagine.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Eyeballing their crosstabs, the white nationalists at Data For Progress weighted to a 49% white, 35% black sample? Junk it.

it's likely to be a bit whiter than last time, simply because its an open primary with no Republican contest - but not nearly that much.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Change Research has been right, everyone thinks Biden will win. Bernie in the Change Research has Biden only up 4. Blacks arent monolithic and arent all Biden supporters . That's why Harris and Booker ran to represent the black voters whom arent Biden supporters

[Adam Griffin]

Some things to consider wrt potential black reduction in primary vote share:

1) SC's black population % is declining, and Democrats have basically reached their floor among whites. In multiple Southern states, black population % is increasing and black vote share is barely holding steady there

2) For black women specifically, Obama & Clinton were inspirational (first viable black nominee; first viable female nominee) and black voters are 60% female here - I expect any absolute drop will disproportionately (i.e. more than 60% of it) be among females

3) No GOP primary - inevitably there will be white Republicans crossing over for the hell of it or to try to cause chaos, as well as potentially some growth among post-2016 white GOP defectors

[heatcharger]

Eyeballing their crosstabs, the white nationalists at Data For Progress weighted to a 49% white, 35% black sample? Junk it.

it's likely to be a bit whiter than last time, simply because its an open primary with no Republican contest - but not nearly that much.

The Democratic and Republican primaries have historically been on different days in SC, so I’m not sure there will be a huge influx of Republican voters. It’d have to be a pretty conscious choice for a usual Republican voter to vote on Saturday. I do think there’s a pool of white voters who will vote for the first time in a Democratic primary, but not enough to get anywhere near what this poll is projecting.