SC-Emerson: Biden +16

[Adam Griffin]

A final Emerson College Polling/Nexstar South Carolina poll finds former Vice President Joe Biden at 41%, Senator Bernie Sanders at 25%, and former Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Businessman Tom Steyer tied at 11% each. Senators Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren are at 6% and 5% respectively, with Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard at 2%. Data was collected on February 26 and 27, 2020, n=550, +/-4.1%.

Compared to the last Emerson College poll of South Carolina from March 2019, Biden and Sanders have risen four points each, Buttigieg has gained 11 points, Klobuchar has gained five points, and Warren and Gabbard have maintained the same level of support. Steyer had not announced his candidacy at the time the poll was conducted.

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/south-carolina-2020-biden-poised-to-win-his-first-contest

Looked at the crosstabs and did the projected delegates based on their data (statewide & congressional groups):

Statewide: Biden 12, Sanders 7
CD 1: Biden 3, Sanders 3
CD 2, 5, 7: Biden 8, Sanders 6
CD 3 & 4: Biden 3, Sanders 2, Buttigieg 1, Steyer 1
CD 6: Biden 8


Biden 34
Sanders 18
Steyer 1
Buttigieg 1

It's very possible that given those clusters of CDs, one or more other candidates may get delegates from them (by having individual CDs where they're doing better), but this is as granular as it can get with this data.

[President Johnson]

Lovely Biden surge. Cracking 40% would be fantastic. Hopefully Bernie is much lower than this poll shows him.

[Volrath50]

It does seem like Biden is probably up by about 15. Unfortunate, but not too unexpected, and probably won't be enough to turn things around for him.

Hopefully if Warren does this bad, she drops out before Super Tuesday. Unfortunately, that doesn't seem too likely.

[Eraserhead]

I can live with this if everyone else isn't viable.

[Adam Griffin]

Delegate-wise, this still ain't bad for Sanders. He gets close to 40% of statewide delegates; comparable to a situation where it's Sanders 28, Biden 26, Steyer 22. The key is Steyer's viability.

[Matty]

Can someone give me a quick example of how delegate allocation works in this example?

Let’s say SC has 100 delegates and this poll is spot on

How would you determine who gets what?

[The Ex-Factor]

Then I believe Biden would get 62 delegates (41/66) and Sanders 38 (25/66).

[Adam Griffin]

Can someone give me a quick example of how delegate allocation works in this example?

Let’s say SC has 100 delegates and this poll is spot on

How would you determine who gets what?

South Carolina has 63 delegates: 54 pledged delegates and 9 superdelegates.

Of the 54, 19 are allocated by the statewide vote and 35 are split among the 7 congressional districts:



Candidates must reach 15% statewide to receive any statewide delegates, and they must also reach 15% in any congressional district to receive delegates from those CDs.

[😥]

Hope Biden will receive 50+% of votes

[Roblox]

Gotta admit it'll be fun watching Joe Biden get his first ever presidential primary win after running for President for 30 years. Master stuff!

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I sign for it because of Sanders being at 25. Let ST come, and let Sanders win the majority of delegates please there. We will never have a chance like this anymore to have a shot at the US presidency, and it could change the entire world. A boring Biden presidency would do nothing more than undone everything Trump has done, which isn't necessarily bad, but i'm hoping for more.

[Adam Griffin]

Looked at the crosstabs and did the projected delegates based on their data (statewide & congressional groups):

Statewide: Biden 12, Sanders 7
CD 1: Biden 3, Sanders 3
CD 2, 5, 7: Biden 8, Sanders 6
CD 3 & 4: Biden 3, Sanders 2, Buttigieg 1, Steyer 1
CD 6: Biden 8


Biden 34
Sanders 18
Steyer 1
Buttigieg 1

It's very possible that given those clusters of CDs, one or more other candidates may get/lose delegates from them (by having individual CDs where they're doing better/worse), but this is as granular as it can get with this data. Steyer and Buttigieg are on the cusp of being non-viable in CDs 3-4, while Sanders is on the cusp of viability in CD 6.

I said many weeks ago that if Sanders could hold Biden to a net gain of 20 delegates in SC, that'd be an effective win for him. If this poll is correct, he is doing that.


Nationally (before and after):

Sanders 45 -> 63
Biden 15 -> 49
Buttigieg 25 -> 26
Warren 8 -> 8
Klobuchar 7 -> 7
Steyer 0 -> 1

[President Johnson]

I sign for it because of Sanders being at 25. Let ST come, and let Sanders win the majority of delegates please there. We will never have a chance like this anymore to have a shot at the US presidency, and it could change the entire world. A boring Biden presidency would do nothing more than undone everything Trump has done, which isn't necessarily bad, but i'm hoping for more.

Obviously we disagree here, but I think for anyone who hopes for more than undoing Trump's policies, Joe Biden is the one who can get things done such as expanded healthcare, raising the minimum wage or enact sound climate solutions. And he will help down-ballot Democrats needed to keep the House and take the senate. Congressional majorities happen in these swing districts flipped in 2018, where Bernie's brand isn't that popular.

Bernie has noble intensions to help working class people and fight corruption, but he will have trouble to enact any of his signature policies even if he wins the general election by a fair margin and manages to get a 50-50 senate (which is doubtful with regard to the senate).

[Adam Griffin]

Additional Crosstabs:

Party Affiliation: Dem 75, Ind 21, GOP 4

Had Bloomberg been on the ballot, would you have voted for him? No 79-21

White: Biden 30-24
Black: Biden 49-27

Male: Biden 41-26
Female: Biden 42-24

18-44: Bernie 41-25
45+: Biden 54-12

HS or Less: Biden 48-26
Some College: Biden 42-27
College Grad: Biden 37-25
Postgrad: Biden 40-22

% Who Will Definitely Vote for Their Candidate:
Gabbard 100%
Sanders 85%
Biden 75%
Buttigieg 65%
Warren 63%
Steyer 59%
Klobuchar 43%

[Progressive Pessimist]

Looks about right.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's what to expect from an Emerson poll. I still am going with Change Research

[ElectionsGuy]

Really depressing. What the hell happened these past few days?

[NHI]

Really depressing. What the hell happened these past few days?

I think the final margin will be closer

[Politics Fan]

Really depressing. What the hell happened these past few days?

It comes down to a few major reasons.

1. Tom Steyer has declined in polls to the help of Joe Biden. This might have been somewhat inevitable based on Steyer not doing well in other state’s but I think being essentially non viable nationally has helped to erode his support.

2. Bernie Sanders strong win combined with Joe Biden finishing second in Nevada has helped turn the primary in a two maybe three person race. Essentially Joe Biden and to a lesser extent Michael Bloomberg are the only nationally viable establishment candidates meaning with Mike not on the ballot undecided voters or supporters of non Biden establishment candidates that don’t want Bernie are liable to rally behind Joe Biden. Keep in mind Sanders support hasn’t gone down much in SC (except for one poll) it’s more his support hasn’t grown.
 
3. Jim Clyburn endorsement of Biden. While Biden appeared to be on the upswing pre endorsement Clyburn backing Biden has helped Biden to continue to surge. Clyburn is well respected among Democrats in the state especially in the African American community which further has locked in soft Biden support and allowed Biden to take voters from undecideds and other establishment candidates.

4. South Carolina was never that great of a fit for Sanders and Biden is the only nationally viable opposition on the ballot. South Carolina Democrat’s are more moderate than national Democrats and much more supportive of the Democratic establishment. This is especially true among the African American community who respects and trusts Biden from his time as Vice President. African Americans and to a lesser extent Southern whites tend to be more pragmatic and more supportive of incremental reforms instead of bold promises and massive overhauls to the current system which hurts Sanders. The non Sanders and Biden candidates on the ballot simply are not viable nationally and voters tend to be less likely to back candidates that they don’t view as having a chance of wining the nomination which again helps Biden consolidate the anti Sanders support.

The good news for Sanders supporters is that so far Biden hasn’t shown major signs of surging beyond the south which allows Sanders if he can do well outside of the Deep South to keep front runner status this time next week. However if Bloomberg underperforms next week which I think has a decent chance of happening than Biden might be able to perform strongly on Tuesday allowing him to take back front runner status.

[Adam Griffin]

Really depressing. What the hell happened these past few days?

Teasers and soft support, it appears. A bunch of Biden->Undecided->Biden voters and people who were always soft on Steyer abandoning him (though that group is more evenly flowing to both Biden and Sanders). Notice that Sanders isn't declining in vote share in polling: it's just the flux between Biden, Steyer and undecideds.

And while black voters are the bulk of this back-and-forth shift, you'll notice that even black Sanders supporters aren't abandoning him. He actually has a higher vote share among black voters (27) than white voters (24) in this poll.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Steyer probably won't hit viability statewide at this point, but he might get a delegate or two from the CD's, probably CD6.

[redjohn]

Steyer faltering stinks. SC will be great for Biden, Bernie getting 25% would be a good scenario for him here at this point (and is actually what he got in a two-race with HRC last time around)

[NOVA Green]

It appears to be looking increasingly clear that Biden will likely not only win SC, but also by 10%+ margins (or larger)....

As I predicted at the time of the NV Caucuses, my opinion was that it would likely start to turn into effectively a two person race, and the post NV polls of SC appear to indicate a shift in momentum here....

EV's as I posted elsewhere are fairly difficult to get in SC, unless you are Military, 65+, College Students in other places, etc.... so it's not like many other places in the South where you can easily bank early votes (for example like Steyer would have wished was possible), and "Uncle Joe" no longer looks like a potential "loser" anymore---- plus he did pretty well in the DEM debate there, regardless of overall likely DEM PRIM voters nationally who narrowly picked Bernie as the winner....

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden doesnt have the money to compete on the air that Bernie and Bloomberg does. That's why they are leading in Cali, due to ads. BIDEN only has 7 million compared to Bernie 15 and after SC, ads are gonna sway voters not coming to individual states

[NOVA Green]

Biden doesnt have the money to compete on the air that Bernie and Bloomberg does. That's why they are leading in Cali, due to ads. BIDEN only has 7 million compared to Bernie 15 and after SC, ads are gonna sway voters not coming to individual states

But a good chance that by the time many voters in the East Coast and in the Mid-West have gone to bed on ST, Bernie might be only up 10% in CA (or less) and ends up winning the State in a landslide....