This is the senate map after 2024. What’s your reaction?
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Author Topic: This is the senate map after 2024. What’s your reaction?  (Read 1604 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« on: February 27, 2020, 12:03:33 PM »
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xingkerui
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« Reply #1 on: February 27, 2020, 12:19:54 PM »
How did Johnson win while both Scott and Rubio lost? I'm guessing that Trump won re-election, since I don't see Rubio losing in a Democratic midterm, but Johnson would need a lot of luck to win in a Trump midterm, especially if Rubio and several others are losing.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #2 on: February 27, 2020, 12:20:05 PM »
You got WI wrong
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #3 on: February 27, 2020, 12:21:16 PM »
« Edited: February 27, 2020, 12:25:53 PM by Roll Roons »
What I think happened:

2020: 
D+3 (R gain AL, D gain CO, AZ, ME, GA special after a runoff). Trump won reelection, because it's unlikely that Rubio loses otherwise.

2022 Flips:
D+3 (D gain PA, FL, NC). I'm surprised they didn't win WI.

2024 Flips:
R+2 (R gain WV, OH, MT, D gain FL). A Democrat wins the presidency.

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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #4 on: February 27, 2020, 12:27:18 PM »
Dems will win KS and WI
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andjey
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« Reply #5 on: February 27, 2020, 12:54:48 PM »
Quote from: Roll Roons on February 27, 2020, 12:21:16 PM
What I think happened:

2020: 
D+3 (R gain AL, D gain CO, AZ, ME, GA special after a runoff). Trump won reelection, because it's unlikely that Rubio loses otherwise.

2022 Flips:
D+3 (D gain PA, FL, NC). I'm surprised they didn't win WI.

2024 Flips:
R+2 (R gain WV, OH, MT, D gain FL). A Democrat wins the presidency.


Agree with this, but I don't how this map is possible. If Trump wins reelection this year, 2024 will be a Democratic tsunami. So, in 2024 Republicans can win WV (if Manchin will retire), but I can't see any chance that Brown and Tester will lose after 8 years of Trump
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #6 on: February 27, 2020, 01:00:27 PM »


Bernie/Klobuchar admin

2020 D +3 R AL, D win AZ, CO, ME & NC
2022 D +2 WI & Pa
2024 Rs net MT

Non hawkish Solid map which is 538-0 D
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #7 on: February 27, 2020, 01:04:33 PM »
Quote from: АndriуValeriovich on February 27, 2020, 12:54:48 PM
Quote from: Roll Roons on February 27, 2020, 12:21:16 PM
What I think happened:

2020: 
D+3 (R gain AL, D gain CO, AZ, ME, GA special after a runoff). Trump won reelection, because it's unlikely that Rubio loses otherwise.

2022 Flips:
D+3 (D gain PA, FL, NC). I'm surprised they didn't win WI.

2024 Flips:
R+2 (R gain WV, OH, MT, D gain FL). A Democrat wins the presidency.


Agree with this, but I don't how this map is possible. If Trump wins reelection this year, 2024 will be a Democratic tsunami. So, in 2024 Republicans can win WV (if Manchin will retire), but I can't see any chance that Brown and Tester will lose after 8 years of Trump

Yeah. Plus in 2024 after eight years of Trump, I would think Democrats have a good shot at picking up Texas.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #8 on: February 27, 2020, 01:09:47 PM »
FL isnt going blue with DeSantis as Gov in 2024 while WI stays red in 2022
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #9 on: February 27, 2020, 01:37:31 PM »
This map is pretty plausible, honestly. Johnson winning in a Trump wouldn’t be that surprising, and Rubio is by no means safe (FL isn’t actually a deep red state).

I’d be a little surprised by Republicans picking up both OH + MT/holding TX but losing FL, though.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #10 on: February 27, 2020, 01:38:36 PM »
Quote from: АndriуValeriovich on February 27, 2020, 12:54:48 PM
Quote from: Roll Roons on February 27, 2020, 12:21:16 PM
What I think happened:

2020: 
D+3 (R gain AL, D gain CO, AZ, ME, GA special after a runoff). Trump won reelection, because it's unlikely that Rubio loses otherwise.

2022 Flips:
D+3 (D gain PA, FL, NC). I'm surprised they didn't win WI.

2024 Flips:
R+2 (R gain WV, OH, MT, D gain FL). A Democrat wins the presidency.


Agree with this, but I don't how this map is possible. If Trump wins reelection this year, 2024 will be a Democratic tsunami. So, in 2024 Republicans can win WV (if Manchin will retire), but I can't see any chance that Brown and Tester will lose after 8 years of Trump

Like 2016 was a Republican tsunami after 8 years of Obama, right?
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andjey
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« Reply #11 on: February 27, 2020, 03:35:06 PM »
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on February 27, 2020, 01:38:36 PM
Quote from: АndriуValeriovich on February 27, 2020, 12:54:48 PM
Quote from: Roll Roons on February 27, 2020, 12:21:16 PM
What I think happened:

2020: 
D+3 (R gain AL, D gain CO, AZ, ME, GA special after a runoff). Trump won reelection, because it's unlikely that Rubio loses otherwise.

2022 Flips:
D+3 (D gain PA, FL, NC). I'm surprised they didn't win WI.

2024 Flips:
R+2 (R gain WV, OH, MT, D gain FL). A Democrat wins the presidency.


Agree with this, but I don't how this map is possible. If Trump wins reelection this year, 2024 will be a Democratic tsunami. So, in 2024 Republicans can win WV (if Manchin will retire), but I can't see any chance that Brown and Tester will lose after 8 years of Trump

Like 2016 was a Republican tsunami after 8 years of Obama, right?
No, like 2008 was a Democratic tsunami after 8 years of Bush
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #12 on: February 27, 2020, 03:57:38 PM »
Another R thread that has WI going R, not happening in 2020 or in 2022 or 2024
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #13 on: February 27, 2020, 04:38:55 PM »
Quote from: Roll Roons on February 27, 2020, 12:21:16 PM
What I think happened:

2020: 
D+3 (R gain AL, D gain CO, AZ, ME, GA special after a runoff). Trump won reelection, because it's unlikely that Rubio loses otherwise.

2022 Flips:
D+3 (D gain PA, FL, NC). I'm surprised they didn't win WI.

2024 Flips:
R+2 (R gain WV, OH, MT, D gain FL). A Democrat wins the presidency.



Yeah that would be the most obvious explanation to a such map, now I don’t really see how Johnson survives if Rubio loses in 2022
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #14 on: February 27, 2020, 04:43:11 PM »
Quote from: АndriуValeriovich on February 27, 2020, 03:35:06 PM
Quote from: Tekken_Guy on February 27, 2020, 01:38:36 PM
Quote from: АndriуValeriovich on February 27, 2020, 12:54:48 PM
Quote from: Roll Roons on February 27, 2020, 12:21:16 PM
What I think happened:

2020:  
D+3 (R gain AL, D gain CO, AZ, ME, GA special after a runoff). Trump won reelection, because it's unlikely that Rubio loses otherwise.

2022 Flips:
D+3 (D gain PA, FL, NC). I'm surprised they didn't win WI.

2024 Flips:
R+2 (R gain WV, OH, MT, D gain FL). A Democrat wins the presidency.


Agree with this, but I don't how this map is possible. If Trump wins reelection this year, 2024 will be a Democratic tsunami. So, in 2024 Republicans can win WV (if Manchin will retire), but I can't see any chance that Brown and Tester will lose after 8 years of Trump

Like 2016 was a Republican tsunami after 8 years of Obama, right?
No, like 2008 was a Democratic tsunami after 8 years of Bush

Even if we assume that 2024 is a D+8 year like 2008 was, republicans would still have a pretty good chance to flip Ohio/Montana and even more West Virginia.
Considering actual trends, if the republican presidential candidate loses the PV by 8 he would still win Ohio by 5 or 6 points, MT by 10 points and West Virginia by +35 points, in other words republican senatorial candidates in these specific states would have a strong wind at their back.
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ksd2000
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« Reply #15 on: February 27, 2020, 04:45:09 PM »
Glad to see DC finally got statehood! And two more Dem senators will certainly help pad the majority.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #16 on: February 27, 2020, 06:18:03 PM »
As stated before , another R thread that has WI leaning GOP, WI isnt IA or OH.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #17 on: March 02, 2020, 01:00:12 AM »
1. Ron Johnson is not running for re-election.

2. It is likely that the Republicans lose one of the two Senate seats in both Florida and Iowa. 
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #18 on: March 02, 2020, 04:39:59 AM »
« Edited: March 02, 2020, 09:14:28 AM by Cory Booker »
Quote from: pbrower2a on March 02, 2020, 01:00:12 AM
1. Ron Johnson is not running for re-election.

2. It is likely that the Republicans lose one of the two Senate seats in both Florida and Iowa.  

He is another R whom thinks with Bernie, WI will vote R, not happening
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #19 on: March 02, 2020, 09:11:34 PM »
Lemme guess

1. Baldwin finally got defeated even as RonJohn's successor narrowly won the six-year itch lottery?
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #20 on: March 02, 2020, 10:00:53 PM »
This map is a prediction, not fact
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Nutmeg
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« Reply #21 on: March 03, 2020, 03:10:57 PM »
Glad to see D.C. statehood but concerned about the level of polarization. Wouldn't just 3 states with a split Senate delegation be the lowest ever?
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