MO (Remington): Biden 22%, Bloomberg 17%, Sanders/Buttigieg 11%

[tmthforu94]

Biden: 22%
Bloomberg: 17%
Sanders: 11%
Buttigieg: 11%
Warren: 10%
Klobuchar: 9%
Gabbard/Steyer: 1%

Just released by local TV station (KCTV5) in KC, Missouri statewide poll.

https://www.kctv5.com/news/local_news/new-missouri-poll-shows-biden-leading-among-democrats-bloomberg-contending/article_63de54c0-4464-11ea-a64d-0393e8659c36.html

[tmthforu94]

Remington posted a poll in January:

Biden: 39%
Bloomberg: 14%
Warren: 9%
Klobuchar: 8%
Sanders: 7%
Buttigieg: 6%

Changes from January - February:
Biden -17
Bloomberg +5
Warren +1
Klobuchar +1
Sanders +4
Buttigieg +5

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

Sanders tied with Buttigieg?  Junk it.

[Eraserhead]

These people should just stop.

[MT Treasurer]

Probably underestimating Sanders a little, but with changing coalitions and Sanders bleeding white rural support, I wouldn’t be surprised if he lost MO by more than in 2016. If Biden can improve his standing with black voters, he should win MO.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Missouri is basically 100% white except for Three Counties, but unlike in 2016, those white voters are not united behind Sanders. When more of a choice is offered, these white voters start to truly question if socialism is best for them.

[Mehmentum]

Given Sanders' polling in other midwestern states, I don't buy it.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Pretty sad stuff.  Why bother?

JUNK IT.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

MO is late so we can wait until after ST to see if Biden rebounds

[Oryxslayer]

Obviously Sanders is too low, but everyone saying "LoL trash" should consider the state for a moment.

- MO is part of the "greater Appalachian V," so defined by people as beginning in Western PA, bottoming out in northern Alabama, and then turning west ending in Oklahoma and Missouri. For simplicity's sake, this culturally is Appalachia+Ozarks. So far, polling has shown that the Dixiecrats common across the region are going for Bloomberg.

- The true democratic base of the state is in the cities at oppositie ends of the state. Biden still remains the candidate for the AA community, which dominates both cities. Their blue suburbs meanwhile are divided between the three other candidates around Sanders who are appealing to their education.

- Last time Sanders nearly tied Clinton via margins in the rurals. I hope the three past contests have shown that this part of Sanders coalition has moved to other tickets.

- This essentially leaves Sanders with the Columbian college town and the working class suburbs to the South of St. Louis. Now, he's probably going to be second in the other candidates regions, raising his threshold from what we see here, but it's not hard to believe that Missouri won't be the hottest state for Sanders.

[Xing]

I doubt Sanders is this low, but it makes sense that this would be one of his weaker states in 2020.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Considering how close this state was in 2016, you would think that Sanders would be leading here. I mean, maybe this poll is just straight up inaccurate, but regardless the coalitions from 2016 are definitely not the same.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hilary in 2008 was automatic in MO, but once blacks in ST Louis saw Obama was winning,  they voted for him, instead. MO votes after ST anyways

[ElectionsGuy]

I doubt Sanders is this low, but it makes sense that this would be one of his weaker states in 2020.

This is a state that should be a little weaker than his national numbers for Sanders, not a lot. It's about as black and slightly whiter than the national electorate. The very small Hispanic population is what hurts Sanders the most here. The Dem electorate is also very urban concentrated, despite the idea of it being a rural state. So this should still be a state that Sanders is to win by single digits with around a 10% national lead. We'll see how polls adjust after Super Tuesday, but right now Missouri shouldn't be difficult for Sanders to win.

[Adam Griffin]

Sanders tied with Buttigieg?  Junk it.

I don't know: Midwestern voters (and their peripheral voters) are real suckers for empty platitudes delivered from fellow Midwesterners. It might be somewhat reflective.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

So this thread really didn’t age well.

[ElectionsGuy]

So this thread really didn’t age well.

What didn't age well was the state of the race. This is a snapshot in time, you can't seriously be bumping threads being like 'look how dumb everybody is nobody predicted a 180-degree turnaround in the race within a week'

And if you were knocking me specifically I said this is a state that should be slightly stronger for Biden than the average state (national average right now is about Biden +20 to +25, and the result ended up being Biden +26.