Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Gracile]

Kanye West just entered the race for Prez, I doubt we see a 500 EC landslide,  now

I don't think anyone was predicting one, to begin with.

[wbrocks67]

With these numbers, Georgia would be the first state to flip, as it counts its votes unusually fast. It was a fairly quick call for McCain in 2008 even if it was fairly close.

But that is a nitpick. 

IDK, judging by their counting this year, might be the opposite

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Texas: PPP, June 24-25, 729 RV

Approve 46
Disapprove 51

Biden 48, Trump 46

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/TXToplines7220.pdf

Texas is a legitimate toss-up this time, and I don't see things getting better for Trump.

My handicap of states decided by 10% or less (Maine excluded) does not change.

AZ Biden 80 Trump 20
FL Biden 70 Trump 30
GA Biden 70 Trump 30
IA Biden 40 Biden 60
MI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
MN Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NH Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NC Biden 70 Trump 30
OH Biden 70 Trump 30
PA Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
TX Biden 55 Trump 45
WI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less

I have been slow to give Joe Biden any edge in Texas, but I do now. COVID-19 has spiked in Texas, transforming at the least Houston and San Antonio into medical equivalents of slaughterhouses. 

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

These arent the maps of a 400 to 500 landslide. I think yes

[Badger]

Texas: PPP, June 24-25, 729 RV

Approve 46
Disapprove 51

Biden 48, Trump 46

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/TXToplines7220.pdf

Texas is a legitimate toss-up this time, and I don't see things getting better for Trump.

My handicap of states decided by 10% or less (Maine excluded) does not change.

AZ Biden 80 Trump 20
FL Biden 70 Trump 30
GA Biden 70 Trump 30
IA Biden 40 Biden 60
MI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
MN Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NH Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NC Biden 70 Trump 30
OH Biden 70 Trump 30
PA Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
TX Biden 55 Trump 45
WI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less

I have been slow to give Joe Biden any edge in Texas, but I do now. COVID-19 has spiked in Texas, transforming at the least Houston and San Antonio into medical equivalents of slaughterhouses. 

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

Your rankings always havs been, and continue to be, grossly over optomistic for Democrats.

[Ferguson97]

Civiqs approval tracker - 7/1

National: 41/55 (-14)

Alaska: 47/50 (-3)
Arizona: 42/54 (-12)
Colorado: 36/60 (-24)
Florida: 44/52 (-8)
Georgia: 44/52 (-8)
Iowa: 45/52 (-7)
Kansas: 50/46 (+4)
Maine: 36/61 (-25)
Michigan: 41/55 (-14)
Minnesota: 38/59 (-21)
Montana: 48/49 (-1)
Nevada: 37/59 (-22)
New Hampshire: 36/59 (-23)
New Mexico: 42/54 (-12)
North Carolina: 44/53 (-9)
Ohio: 46/51 (-5)
Pennsylvania: 43/53 (-10)
South Carolina: 50/47 (+3)
Texas: 48/49 (-1)
Virginia: 39/57 (-18)
Wisconsin: 44/53 (-9)

Those Montana, Kansas, Alaska, South Carolina, Texas #s *eye emoji*

wow

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If you think Biden is gonna win every state with Kayne West in the race that have Trump have subpar approvals it wont happen. We never had a 400 to 500 EC landslide.  Biden isn't that likeable, that's why Kayne decided to run.

Even In 2018 D had a plus 8 generic ballot lead and underperformed in OH, IA, FL gov races

[Yoda]

If you think Biden is gonna win every state with Kayne West in the race that have Trump have subpar approvals it wont happen. We never had a 400 to 500 EC landslide.  Biden isn't that likeable, that's why Kayne decided to run.

Kanye decided to run, and I use the word "run" loosely as he has already missed too many filing deadlines to run a serious campaign, b/c no one was paying attention to him and he needed attention.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He only missed deadlines in TX, NM and NC, Ds wishful thinking of winning TX, FL, GA, VA and NC and the economy is coming back isnt gonna push unemployment compensation over a yr
 The Ds need 60 votes for that to happen and that was tried in 2000s after 911 and enough conservative Dems said no.

But another 1200 stimulus Trump already said was fine.

Dems arent winning 5 Southern states and polls are tied in all of them except VA even in 2008 or 2018 when Ds had +8 Dems underperformed in OH, AZ, IA and FL gov races and lost TN, MO, FL and TX Semate races
 
A 52-48 Senate and a 300 vote victory is likely the map for a 3 to 5 2012 win

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I have made a decision that a second user needs to join my muted list.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I have made a decision that a second user needs to join my muted list.

Who cares, Biden was disliked by a majority of forum.users and Bernie won the mock forum election.  

Biden only was gravitated to, due to 13 percent unemployment and Covid 19. Those polls are RV not LV

Trump.35
Biden 34
Kayne 31

Good poll for Kayne

Freedom to vote whomever we like even Pittsburgh whom is muting users voted for Toomey in 2016

[redjohn]

I have made a decision that a second user needs to join my muted list.

Who cares, Biden was disliked by a majority of forum.users and Bernie won the mock forum election.  

Biden only was gravitated to, due to 13 percent unemployment and Covid 19. Those polls are RV not LV

Trump.35
Biden 34
Kayne 31

Good poll for Kayne

Freedom to vote whomever we like even Pittsburgh whom is muting users voted for Toomey in 2016

Not really sure what this even means, but this is the biggest overreaction to someone threatening to run for President since the Bloomberg hype.

[pbrower2a]

Civiqs approval tracker - 7/1

National: 41/55 (-14)

Alaska: 47/50 (-3)
Arizona: 42/54 (-12)
Colorado: 36/60 (-24)
Florida: 44/52 (-8)
Georgia: 44/52 (-8)
Iowa: 45/52 (-7)
Kansas: 50/46 (+4)
Maine: 36/61 (-25)
Michigan: 41/55 (-14)
Minnesota: 38/59 (-21)
Montana: 48/49 (-1)
Nevada: 37/59 (-22)
New Hampshire: 36/59 (-23)
New Mexico: 42/54 (-12)
North Carolina: 44/53 (-9)
Ohio: 46/51 (-5)
Pennsylvania: 43/53 (-10)
South Carolina: 50/47 (+3)
Texas: 48/49 (-1)
Virginia: 39/57 (-18)
Wisconsin: 44/53 (-9)

Those Montana, Kansas, Alaska, South Carolina, Texas #s *eye emoji*

Got a link?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pbower 2a never goes into the Congressional polls where Rs are doing much better than in the Prez polls where they only show RV polls and Biden polls plus 12 numbers, which isnt gonna happen

Why doesnt he respond to ME polls showing Collins up by 8 or McSally now up by 4

[pbrower2a]

Pbower 2a never goes into the Congressional polls where Rs are doing much better than in the Prez polls where they only show RV polls and Biden polls plus 12 numbers, which isnt gonna happen

Why doesnt he respond to ME polls showing Collins up by 8 or McSally now up by 4

I've seen polls in which one of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin is amazingly close yet the other two aren't -- with all three states, as I recall, being ties or even having Trump leads. Such polls look manipulated, perhaps for the benefit of fundraising for some house or Senate campaigns.

Polls commissioned to get a pre-selected result are junk.

I have seen outliers, and sometimes outliers indicate that something is changing dramatically -- as withe the Trump surge or Clinton collapse in 2016.

What does President Trump have going for him?

[wbrocks67]

Civiqs approval tracker - 7/1

National: 41/55 (-14)

Alaska: 47/50 (-3)
Arizona: 42/54 (-12)
Colorado: 36/60 (-24)
Florida: 44/52 (-8)
Georgia: 44/52 (-8)
Iowa: 45/52 (-7)
Kansas: 50/46 (+4)
Maine: 36/61 (-25)
Michigan: 41/55 (-14)
Minnesota: 38/59 (-21)
Montana: 48/49 (-1)
Nevada: 37/59 (-22)
New Hampshire: 36/59 (-23)
New Mexico: 42/54 (-12)
North Carolina: 44/53 (-9)
Ohio: 46/51 (-5)
Pennsylvania: 43/53 (-10)
South Carolina: 50/47 (+3)
Texas: 48/49 (-1)
Virginia: 39/57 (-18)
Wisconsin: 44/53 (-9)

Those Montana, Kansas, Alaska, South Carolina, Texas #s *eye emoji*

Got a link?

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?uncertainty=true&annotations=true&zoomIn=true

[GeorgiaModerate]

Maine: PPP, July 2-3, 1022 RV

Approve 41
Disapprove 55

Biden 53, Trump 42

Gideon 46, Collins 42

[pbrower2a]

Maine: PPP, July 2-3, 1022 RV

Approve 41
Disapprove 55

Biden 53, Trump 42

Gideon 46, Collins 42

The map doesn't change, but

My handicap of states decided by 10% or less (Maine excluded) does not change.

AZ Biden 80 Trump 20
FL Biden 70 Trump 30
GA Biden 70 Trump 30
IA Biden 40 Biden 60
ME Biden 99+ Trump 1 or less
MI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
MN Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NH Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
NC Biden 70 Trump 30
OH Biden 70 Trump 30
PA Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less
TX Biden 55 Trump 45
WI Biden 99+ Trump  1 or less

I have been slow to give Joe Biden any edge in Texas, but I do now. COVID-19 has spiked in Texas, transforming at the least Houston and San Antonio into medical equivalents of slaughterhouses. 

Trump approval 50-54%
Trump approval positive but under 50%
ties are in white
Trump approval negative but disapproval under 50%
Trump disapproval 50-54%
Trump disapproval 55% or higher

[/quote]

[Bidenworth2020]

https://news.gallup.com/poll/313454/trump-job-approval-rating-steady-lower-level.aspx

Gallup

Approve: 38 (-1)
Disapprove 57 (+1)

Lowest since January 2019.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://news.gallup.com/poll/313454/trump-job-approval-rating-steady-lower-level.aspx

Gallup

Approve: 38 (-1)
Disapprove 57 (+1)

Lowest since January 2019.

From the article:

Trump now has approval ratings below the majority level among groups that are typically more favorable to him, including non-Hispanic white Americans, men, older Americans, Southerners and those without a college degree.

He does retain majority support among white Americans without a college degree, at 57%, albeit down from 66% among the group in January to early May.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Looks like it's not gonna to be a landslide but a 278 Election, like it's always meant to be WI, MI, PA and Senate comes down to CO, ME, NC, and GA, AZ or MT.

Polls showing an electoral collapse by Trump was clearly overstated like in 2016. Meaning natl polls showing Biden plus 12 were RV not LV, like I have said before

[GeorgiaModerate]

Research Co., July 1-2, 1200 adults (1-month change)

Approve 40 (-6)
Disapprove 56 (+5)

Strongly approve 16 (-9)
Strongly disapprove 44 (+3)

This is a Canadian pollster.

[Brittain33]

Strongly approve 16 (-9)

You love to see it

[GeorgiaModerate]

Strongly approve 16 (-9)

You love to see it

That might be the lowest "strongly approve" so far.

[Person Man]

Strongly approve 16 (-9)

You love to see it

That might be the lowest "strongly approve" so far.

Did W ever get that low?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Strongly approve 16 (-9)

You love to see it

That might be the lowest "strongly approve" so far.

Did W ever get that low?

Yes.  For example, it looks like he hit 15 a few times in the ABC/WaPo poll: https://abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit/1064a1Bush-Track.pdf.