Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[pbrower2a]

Ipsos/Reuters, April 6-7, 1116 adults (1-week change)

Approve 40 (-4)
Disapprove 55 (+4)

They have not (yet) published strongly approve/disapprove or RV numbers this week (they're sometimes oddly inconsistent that way).

To add to the previous post:

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, April 5-7, 1500 adults including 1147 RV

Adults:

Approve 45 (-2)
Disapprove 51 (+5)

Strongly approve 26 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 38 (-4)


RV:

Approve 45 (-2)
Disapprove 53 (+3)

Strongly approve 30 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+3)

2020 (RV only):

Generic D 47 (+2), Trump 42 (nc)
Biden 48 (+2), Trump 42 (nc)
Sanders 48 (+3), Trump 42 (-2)

GCB (RV only): D 48 (nc), R 39 (nc)

No way does the President win with numbers like those. Note well that time is running out on the 2020 electoral season. Disapproval at 51% makes re-election require significant improvement in the view of the President, and disapproval at 55% suggests a landslide loss.

55% disapproval means that GOP support erodes in places in which Republicans are usually safe. It would be difficult on my part to predict where that would happen... maybe white Southerners might become less tribal in their voting habits.

Of course there is no legal difference between winning the White House with 275, 375, 475, or even 525 electoral votes... but at such a point I could even see Doug Jones getting re-elected in Alabama and some surprising losses for Republicans.

COVID-19 has been killing Americans in large numbers (in what epidemiologists call "excess deaths") for perhaps two weeks, and the toll in such a time is beginning to exceed  combat deaths in "small" wars. The raw numbers can easily reach those of American combat deaths in the Korean and Vietnam wars. Americans, and people in other advanced industrial societies, do not ordinarily die in large numbers of respiratory infections except as complications of existing (and usually terminal) cases. Pointless death offends us, which explains why we have laws against drunk driving -- let alone murder. Political leaders involved with pointless death such as wars whose purpose few people understand or understand for reasons inconvenient to those leaders, are in deep trouble. Think of LBJ, who actually achieved some very good things for multitudes of Americans.  

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/PollsterPatrick/status/1247911846985625601
👀

[Bandit3 the Worker]

It's a shame Bernie had to drop out, considering all the polls that had him doing better than Biden against Trump.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It's a shame Bernie had to drop out, considering all the polls that had him doing better than Biden against Trump.

Lol what?

[wbrocks67]

APR 3-6, 2020
A/B
CNBC/Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies
804 A

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/04/08/cnbcs-all-america-economic-survey-on-how-coronavirus-changed-outlook-among-consumers.html

Job Approval:
46 (+ since DEC 10-13)
43 (-6)


So, two Gold Standard polls today. CNN shows -7 (-9 RV). CNBC +3.



Corona:
CDC 75%
Fed 57%
Trump 50%
Congress (R) 47%
Congress (D) 45%

Considering every other poll has had Trump's approval at least down 5 or 10 points, I'd love to see the sample on this one. There's no way it was +3.

Though Hart Strategies is one of the firms behind NBC/WSJ polls and those polls usually seem to inflate Trump's #s a bit for whatever reason

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Considering every other poll has had Trump's approval at least down 5 or 10 points, I'd love to see the sample on this one. There's no way it was +3.

Though Hart Strategies is one of the firms behind NBC/WSJ polls and those polls usually seem to inflate Trump's #s a bit for whatever reason

Here it is, Sir Unskewer.

https://scribd.com/document/455565763/FI12869aCNBCAAESQ1Topline

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

APR 3-7, 2020
A+
Monmouth University

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_040820.pdf/

Gold Standard pollster.

857 A

Job Approval
44 (-2 since MAR 18-22)
49 (+1)

Corona
46 (-4)
49 (+4)




743 RV

Job Approval
46 (-2)
49 (+1)

Corona
47 (-4)
48 (+3)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Monmouth, April 3-7, 857 adults including 743 RV (1-month change)

Adults:

Approve 44 (-2)
Disapprove 49 (+1)

RV:

Approve 46 (-2)
Disapprove 49 (+1)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac: April 2-6, 2077 RV (1-month change)

Approve 45 (+4)
Disapprove 51 (-3)

This is Trump's best-ever showing in this poll.

On coronavirus handling: 46/51

2020: Biden 49, Trump 41 (Biden led 52-41 in last poll)

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

APR 2-6, 2020
B+
Quinnipiac University
2,077 RV

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release-detail?ReleaseID=3658

A lot of Gold Standard polls today!

Job Approval
45 (+4 since MAR 5-8)
51 (-3)


Corona
46 (+3)
51 (+2)


Economy Job Approval
51 (-3)
44 (+2)


H2H:
Biden 49 (-3)
Trump 41 (nc)

[Bidenworth2020]

APR 3-7, 2020
A+
Monmouth University

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_040820.pdf/

Gold Standard pollster.

857 A

Job Approval
44 (-2 since MAR 18-22)
49 (+1)

Corona
46 (-4)
49 (+4)




743 RV

Job Approval
46 (-2)
49 (+1)

Corona
47 (-4)
48 (+3)

Is there a trial heat coming with this poll?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Quinnipiac: April 2-6, 2077 RV (1-month change)

Approve 45 (+4)
Disapprove 51 (-3)

This is Trump's best-ever showing in this poll.

On coronavirus handling: 46/51

2020: Biden 49, Trump 41 (Biden led 52-41 in last poll)

Trump's approval rating on the economy is cracking. It stands at 51-44% (+7) here. It was 54-42% (+12) last month and it was 57-38% (+19) in January.

[GeorgiaModerate]

OK, now we have the full Ipsos poll.

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), April 6-7, 1116 adults including 959 RV:

Adults:

Approve 40 (-4)
Disapprove 55 (+4)

Strongly approve 21 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 41 (+2)

RV:

Approve 42 (-4)
Disapprove 55 (+3)

Strongly approve 23 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+3)


COVID-19 handling (all adults):

Approve 42 (-6)
Disapprove 53 (+7)

Strongly approve 17 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 36 (+6)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump deserves to lose

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/JTHVerhovek/status/1247949229756203009

[Progressive Pessimist]

Monmouth, April 3-7, 857 adults including 743 RV (1-month change)

Adults:

Approve 44 (-2)
Disapprove 49 (+1)

RV:

Approve 46 (-2)
Disapprove 49 (+1)

Still way too good for Trump, but there is a very clear downswing happening in spite of that.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/dandrezner/status/1248082377060089858

[RJ]

https://twitter.com/JTHVerhovek/status/1247949229756203009

Why, for heacen sakes, are 33% of latinos supporting Trump??

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/JTHVerhovek/status/1247949229756203009

Why, for heacen sakes, are 33% of latinos supporting Trump??

Trump got 28% of the latino vote in 2016, so 33% is pretty close to the margin of error. Wouldn't surprise me if he got about 25-30% again.

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/JTHVerhovek/status/1247949229756203009

Why, for heacen sakes, are 33% of latinos supporting Trump??

Trump got 28% of the latino vote in 2016, so 33% is pretty close to the margin of error. Wouldn't surprise me if he got about 25-30% again.

I would go along with such, barring a further collapse of Trump support, which I do not yet see.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here’s a head-scratcher.  The overall 538 average (which includes all polls) currently has Trump at -5.6 (44.5/50.1), which is the largest the gap has been in a couple of weeks.  They also provide the average of only those polls with registered or likely voters, and the average of those with all adults.  Historically Trump has done better in the RV/LV polls than all-adult polls; but lately we’ve seen a number of polls where the reverse was true, so I decided to check those averages…

RV/LV polls: 45.0/51.3 (-6.3)

All adults: 43.7/49.9 (-6.2)

How can BOTH subgroups be worse for Trump than the overall average?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is not gonna win, regardless if it's a 413 election or a 278 election,  Trump is doomed and will take McConnell or the R senate with him. Regardless of McConnell loses, but Amy McGrath and Doug Jones stands a chance in this environment.  Bush W only won reelection due to Katrina, another national disaster took place in 2005, not 2004🤩🤩🤩

[Podgy the Bear]

Trump is not gonna win, regardless if it's a 413 election or a 278 election,  Trump is doomed and will take McConnell or the R senate with him. Regardless of McConnell loses, but Amy McGrath and Doug Jones stands a chance in this environment.  Bush W only won reelection due to Katrina, another national disaster took place in 2005, not 2004🤩🤩🤩

[deleted]

Obviously, you don't know what's going on

See tonight's article in the NYT about the disastrous rollout from the SBA program to help businesses.  Focus hard on the last three paragraphs:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/09/business/smallbusiness/small-business-disaster-loans-coronavirus.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

Here's a community (small business owners) who would normally be favorable to Trump's reelection, but the anger and venom against him is growing day by day.  Not to mention the employees of these businesses who have lost/are going to lose their jobs and livelihood.

[pbrower2a]

Trump is not gonna win, regardless if it's a 413 election or a 278 election,  Trump is doomed and will take McConnell or the R senate with him. Regardless of McConnell loses, but Amy McGrath and Doug Jones stands a chance in this environment.  Bush W only won reelection due to Katrina, another national disaster took place in 2005, not 2004🤩🤩🤩

deleted

Say that of the people who have died of it. The news media are giving us the ugly statistics every day... numbers, just as in casualties from a war.

I am old enough to remember the Vietnam War, and as American fatalities got into the 200-a-day range, Americans started to lose faith in the President. That's when war protests started. You know how that went:

"Hey, hey, LBJ... how many boys did you kill today!"

We have passed 15,000 deaths... and it won't take many days for America to experience as much American death as came from combat in the War in Vietnam that few Americans recognize as a noble cause today because it was so bungled.

Consider this: people in advanced industrial countries generally do not die of respiratory infections unless they are already dying of other conditions such as cancer or congestive heart failure. Respiratory diseases kill largely in 'backward' countries with extreme poverty and poor access to medical care for the poor.

America has suddenly become an underdeveloped country with inadequate infrastructure of medical care thanks to the callous incompetence of a President who fails to recognize his shameful inadequacy as a leader.  

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Trump is not gonna win, regardless if it's a 413 election or a 278 election,  Trump is doomed and will take McConnell or the R senate with him. Regardless of McConnell loses, but Amy McGrath and Doug Jones stands a chance in this environment.  Bush W only won reelection due to Katrina, another national disaster took place in 2005, not 2004🤩🤩🤩

[deleted]

Tens of thousands of people are projected to lose their lives and millions have lost their jobs...