Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Progressive Pessimist]

I think you guys should be a little bit ashamed.

Besides, if these polls are as crappy as they've been the last few years and they still show Trump improving, I'd be crapping razor blades on election night if I were you.

Don't worry, I will be regardless of what polls say.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I think you guys should be a little bit ashamed.

Besides, if these polls are as crappy as they've been the last few years and they still show Trump improving, I'd be crapping razor blades on election night if I were you.

I like how you accuse pp of being happy people are dying from the virus, pp denies that’s what he said but you just ignore it and now say we should be ashamed. If that isn’t being a troll I don’t know what is

[pbrower2a]

I’m betting his approval will go right back down again after this horrible week for the markets, and his lackluster response to coronavirus.

Let's hope so. You would think that a notorious germaphobe would care more.

Disgusting that you're wishing people would die to make "approval ratings" go down. Remember too, he was elected (remember the gay people and women and people with hijabs crying at Javits?) with a 38% approval.

Don't act like a moron. Approval doesn't mean as much as you think.

He didn’t say he wishes people would die to make Trump’s approval go down also (the bolded part) good job showing off that bigoted side again as you like to do

Am I lying?



Am I lying?



Was it all a dream?



You guys waste all your votes in expensive, homeless-ridden large cities and lose the electoral college to a sea of red. Not my fault. Then you become gleeful that people should get sick?

We are not gleeful that people are getting sick. This virus has been mishandled badly in China -- where many of us thought that such was impossible.

It does not help that we have a buffoon as President, someone who consistently deprecates science and expertise because such simply feels right to him.

The whole justification for the Trump Presidency has been the high stock prices that indicate either a healthy economy or one in a bubble about to burst.

I see a bubble about to burst. Investors cannot easily get the short-term financing, as shown in an inverted yield curve. The coronavirus? That is simply a pretext for a panic.

Workers have been terribly underpaid for several years; the gains have largely gone to the Master Class while wages remain stagnant and costs of living rise faster than income for most people. Savings have been ravaged, and savings are the ultimate source of short-term loans for businesses.

I've seen it before: the shakiest entities die first. Valuations of things other than securities, such as real estate, also tumble. Consumer spending plummets.

Do you really think that Donald Trump is the sort of politician to promote hope as an economy goes into a seemingly-unstoppable spiral? He is enough of a blowhard, but he is blowing the wrong message already.       

[wbrocks67]

Trump in bad shape in Texas.

Texas (CNN)
All Adults: 43/49 (-6)
RV: 47/50 (-3)

California (CNN)
All Adults: 33/60 (-27)
RV: 35/61 (-26)

[pbrower2a]

Trump in bad shape in Texas.

Texas (CNN)
All Adults: 43/49 (-6)
RV: 47/50 (-3)

California (CNN)
All Adults: 33/60 (-27)
RV: 35/61 (-26)

The California number looks about right. The Texas number? I would guess that the last Republican President to have that sort of approval in Texas was Gerald Ford... who was the last Republican Presidential nominee to lose Texas.

Texas polling is... weird. Using the RV (and note well that a significant number of Texas voters of 2020 have yet to register to vote, and those are likely a rather young, D-leaning set) I show something that I have shown in Texas before:

 

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over  or over 50%
45-49% and negative

tie (white)

45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This isnt Bush W TX anylomger, Dallas, Miami are international cities like Chicago and NY

WI isn't gonna be the tipping point race, FL will

[Badger]

I’m betting his approval will go right back down again after this horrible week for the markets, and his lackluster response to coronavirus.

Let's hope so. You would think that a notorious germaphobe would care more.

Disgusting that you're wishing people would die to make "approval ratings" go down. Remember too, he was elected (remember the gay people and women and people with hijabs crying at Javits?) with a 38% approval.

Don't act like a moron. Approval doesn't mean as much as you think.

He didn’t say he wishes people would die to make Trump’s approval go down also (the bolded part) good job showing off that bigoted side again as you like to do

Am I lying?



Am I lying?



Was it all a dream?



You guys waste all your votes in expensive, homeless-ridden large cities and lose the electoral college to a sea of red. Not my fault. Then you become gleeful that people should get sick?

No, just a bigot.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fox News, Feb. 23-26, 1000 RV (1-month change)

Approve 47 (+2)
Disapprove 52 (-2)

This is Trump's best showing in this poll since the early months of his Presidency.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is losing badly in their own conservative polls, that is great news to Dems

[pbrower2a]

How states have voted from 2000 on:

all 5 for the Republican
4 R, 1 D
3 R, 2D 
3 D, 2 R
4 D, 1 R
all five for the Democrat

[pbrower2a]

Flips based on 2000-2016 by margin:

(**favorite son as nominee in 2000. No asterisk for 2016 because both nominees were from New York
* state 'flipped" from 2000 to 2016)

swing 10% or more 80% saturation
swing 5-9.9% 60% saturation
swing 2-4.9% 40% saturation
swing under 2% 20% saturation

Utah -- a third-party nominee finished in second place above the Democrat in 2016, so I show this in green with no other significance.   

Ignore districts of Maine and New Hampshire, as I have inadequate data on those.

color shows the direction of the swing of the margin -- red to the Democrat, blue to the Republican

.........

You are welcome to draw whatever conclusions you wish. Except that tiny swings from 2000 to 2016 were enough to swing Wisconsin and New Hampshire, swings that flipped the other states (CO, IA, MI, PA, VA) were much larger than necessary. It's obvious that except for Mississippi (which seems to vote close to an ethnic divide), the good old days for Democrats in the Mountain and Deep South (and this includes Missouri) from the New Deal to the 1990's are much in the past. Otherwise, Democrats seem to be doing better in the western US but decidedly worse (except for Illinois) in the Rust Belt.  You are also welcome to draw conclusions of applicability to 2020. 

I may not be accurate, and I would not pay much attention to small swings unless you want to make your changes.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is only up 5 pts in SC, Graham is still vulnerable. 

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Fox News, Feb. 23-26, 1000 RV (1-month change)

Approve 47 (+2)
Disapprove 52 (-2)

This is Trump's best showing in this poll since the early months of his Presidency.

Economy Approval went down, though. First effect of coronavirus? I expect his approval to go down as well.

Economy Approval:
54 (-2)
42 (+4)

[pbrower2a]

Fox News, Feb. 23-26, 1000 RV (1-month change)

Approve 47 (+2)
Disapprove 52 (-2)

This is Trump's best showing in this poll since the early months of his Presidency.

Economy Approval went down, though. First effect of coronavirus? I expect his approval to go down as well.

Economy Approval:
54 (-2)
42 (+4)

The economy has been Trump's only strength for people not in the "basket of deplorables". He has ridden an eleven-year bull market. Of course I expect him to fault liberals when that bull market comes to an end. Last week was not a definitive end.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Fox News, Feb. 23-26, 1000 RV (1-month change)

Approve 47 (+2)
Disapprove 52 (-2)

This is Trump's best showing in this poll since the early months of his Presidency.

Economy Approval went down, though. First effect of coronavirus? I expect his approval to go down as well.

Economy Approval:
54 (-2)
42 (+4)

The Trump economy has always been a piper tiger. He inherited an objectively good economy and has done nothing to impact it.

[pbrower2a]

Fox News, Feb. 23-26, 1000 RV (1-month change)

Approve 47 (+2)
Disapprove 52 (-2)

This is Trump's best showing in this poll since the early months of his Presidency.

Economy Approval went down, though. First effect of coronavirus? I expect his approval to go down as well.

Economy Approval:
54 (-2)
42 (+4)

The Trump economy has always been a piper (sic) tiger. He inherited an objectively good economy and has done nothing to impact it.

Obama was leery of taking credit for the economy. Republicans had prevented him from making the economic order more just and equitable, so he had to acquiesce with trickle-down economics without a corrupt speculative boom.

Most of the eleven-year bull market has been under Obama, and Trump has had the audacity to claim credit for it. When the bubble in stock-market valuations comes to an end with a sudden collapse, then Trump will exculpate himself. Voters will not exculpate him.   

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The economy right now stinks.

I'm sick of the media lying about how we have the best unemployment rate in 50 years.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Bernie surge should convince even skeptical Rs that he is the strongest nominee, not Biden. Even Trump, due to his closeness to Netanyahu,  cant criticize Bernie the way he went after Hilary and Biden, calling Biden a sloth; consequently,  Bernie will be the 46th Prez.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The economy right now stinks.

I'm sick of the media lying about how we have the best unemployment rate in 50 years.

I agree that the media is doing Trump's job for him when it comes to the economy and his role in it, but on paper the factors were pretty spectacular until very recently.

Personally though, the economy sucks for me and my family though, we're all doing worse than ever. It's not necessarily Trump's fault, but if he is going to take credit for every aspect of the economy no matter how tenuous of a connection, maybe I should be blaming him. And that's probably true for other Americans too...but probably not enough. It's still enough of a cover for his soft support to rationalize voting for him in spite of everything else that is negative and dangerous about him and his administration.

We'll see if Trump finally takes the coronavirus seriously and can salvage the surface level aspects of the economy or not. If he doesn't he may finally lose that soft support, depending on the timing of the election of course.

[Brittain33]

Fox News, Feb. 23-26, 1000 RV (1-month change)

Approve 47 (+2)
Disapprove 52 (-2)

This is Trump's best showing in this poll since the early months of his Presidency.

Economy Approval went down, though. First effect of coronavirus? I expect his approval to go down as well.

Economy Approval:
54 (-2)
42 (+4)

The Trump economy has always been a piper tiger. He inherited an objectively good economy and has done nothing to impact it.

Cutting taxes and raising deficit spending adding a Keynesian boost. It's a tragedy to boost the deficit when the economy's at full blast since we need to be able to borrow when we really need it, but it does have an effect.

[Tekken_Guy]

It’s still too early to see any effects of the virus on his approval. Most polls about him and the virus have him in good territory.

[pbrower2a]

Lichtman test, March 1, 2020:

1.    Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2.    Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3.   Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4.    Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5.    Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6.    Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7.    Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8.    Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9.    Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10.    Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11.    Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12.   Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13.   Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

Keys favoring the President:

3. The President is running for re-election, and should anything happen to him with Mike Pence becoming President, Pence looks like a sure thing to defend his new office.
11. He did get a deal with the Taliban.

Keys against him:

2. My interpretation is that a non-joke opponent getting a significant part of the vote in any primary election indicates that the President has a big problem. Such opponents in primaries show division within the Party. Weld may not stop Trump from being re-nominated, but he shows that significant dissent exists within the Republican Party. Trump cannot afford to lose much of the vote share from 2016. Although New Hampshire is not a perfect analogue for Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin, it is somewhat similar to those three states in political composition.

The damage might not hurt him in the quest for a repeated nomination, but it is a warning sign of the potential for a Third-Party or independent nominee siphoning votes away from him that ordinarily go to a conservative Republican.

The real damage as a key could occur as this one loses its relevance -- and turns #4 against the President.  So one key turns for him and another turns against him... that does him no good.

6. Although the stock markets are doing well (or were doing well!) the economic growth rate after ten years of a boom leading out of a serious recession can never be as strong as that in the recovery phase from the previous recession. This is a tough standard, and I would like to downplay this.

7. Aside from a tax cut -- he made big promises and could not deliver on anything else even when he had majorities in both Houses. The House can stop practically any legislative effort that he proposes. This will stick.

8. Although polite dissent has been extensive, that is not enough to count as social unrest even if it eases organization by the other side. Racist violence is dangerous unrest if the President handles it badly. Trump bungled a violent, racist incident in Charlottesville, Virginia by saying that there are "good people on both sides" on Nazi-style racism. No, there are not "good people on both sides" on arson, child molestation, armed robberies, or drug trafficking -- or Nazi-style racism. Trump could have addressed some other ugly incidents with firm condemnation... and didn't. He still uses bigotry as a political tool to consolidate support among his base, and the base is never enough for winning the Biggest Prize of All.

9. Scandals mark this Presidency in frequency and severity without precedent in American history.  Americans have little tolerance for scandals among governors, Senators, or Representatives... so what says that the President is exempt from this reality? There is just no excuse.

12. This President is a wreck.  

Shaky:

5. One week of horrid closings in the financial markets does not indicate a market crash or an economic downturn. Economic meltdowns often start that way, and a week like the last one in February suggests big trouble for the President.  

To be announced:

4.  There isn't one yet. One or more conservative alternatives with widespread support who get(s) 4% or more of the popular vote can cut the President's percentage of the vote into the low forties, where he cannot win.

13. We have yet to see who the challenger will be. Some of the Democrats running in 2020 have it; some don't. Wait and see.  

Subject to interpretation:

10.    Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

Does the "perfect phone call to the President of Ukraine" count as failure, since it got him impeached?  Does the missile attack on a US base after the assassination of an Iranian general in a paramilitary activity count if the President trivializes the effects of concussions? Does his bungled response to the coronavirus count as a failure in foreign policy?

A President competent at foreign policy would treat the coronavirus as a matter of foreign policy because it has international effects, just as he would with concerns of law enforcement that cross international borders (let us say drug trafficking). 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The reason why Trump is losing is due to the new normal of adults living off of minimum wage jobs, not salaried jobs and McConnell wont raise the minimum wage in states that it is 7.25 to 15.00. Hawaii has a 10 minimum wage and it's the most expensive place to live. Minimum wage jobs used to be as a supplemental income job, or teenager positions, with loss of secretarial positions, it's now the new normal.

People can only pay the bare minimum of the interest off their student loans, and housing is going thru roof, as well as gas prices, and Trump saying the economy is sound. It's not, just like he criticized Obama, on the same economic growth

[GeorgiaModerate]

North Carolina: NBC/Marist, Feb. 23-27, 2530 adults including 2120 RV

Adults:

Approve 44
Disapprove 47

Strongly approve 30
Strongly disapprove 37

RV:

Approve 45
Disapprove 48

Strongly approve 31
Strongly disapprove 38

GCB (RV only): D 46, R 42

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Fox News, Feb. 23-26, 1000 RV (1-month change)

Approve 47 (+2)
Disapprove 52 (-2)

This is Trump's best showing in this poll since the early months of his Presidency.

Economy Approval went down, though. First effect of coronavirus? I expect his approval to go down as well.

Economy Approval:
54 (-2)
42 (+4)

The Trump economy has always been a piper tiger. He inherited an objectively good economy and has done nothing to impact it.

Cutting taxes and raising deficit spending adding a Keynesian boost. It's a tragedy to boost the deficit when the economy's at full blast since we need to be able to borrow when we really need it, but it does have an effect.

That's how Populist Boomers roll! We spent like there is NO TOMORROW! We are going to spent all we want and we'll make Millennials pay for it, hahaha! 




https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/MLSP58Toplines.pdf
FEB 19-23, 2020
A/B
Marquette Law School
1,000   RV

WI
48/48   (Economy 56/41)


https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1575&context=survey_center_polls
FEB 19-25, 2020
B
University of New Hampshire
576   LV

NH
45/53  (Economy 57/38)



https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/6788733/FULL-RESULTS-Morning-Call-Muhlenberg-College.pdf
FEB 12-20, 2020
A+
Muhlenberg College
424   RV

PA
42/50 (Economy 58/34)


People love Trump Economy!