Trump approval ratings thread 1.6

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

With Trump losing by a 70-65 M mark like Romney and McCain, he will lose TX. Map will go back to pre 2016 and after 2004

[pbrower2a]

This is the (apparently) objective Lichtman test that has usually been right in determining which party wins the majority of the popular vote in a Presidential election. To be sure our system of electing the President has the States, and not the People, electing the President, so a winner of less than the plurality can get elected President, as in 2000 and 2016. It is still theoretically possible for Donald Trump to win reelection with a Democratic majority of the vote as Democrats run up huge majorities for President in states with 9 to 55 electoral votes (CO, MD, MA, WA, VA,  NJ, IL, NY, and CA) while barely losing some critical states as Hillary Clinton did in 2016.  But -- if the Democrats get an even swing of 1% of the vote from 2016 to 2020, then Trump loses Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and his re-election bid. To be sure, even swings do not happen.  


.................

(revision: I consider the statement of former Massachusetts Governor Bill Weld that he is running for the nomination for President through the Republican Party unambiguous evidence that Trump faces a serious primary challenge from someone with bona fide credentials as an elected Republican with a significant history of public service. I am also calling the President's anti-immigration stance an effective change in American politics even if I find it abominable. Lichtman does not ask whether the change that a President effects  (such as a large tariff) is to the good or bad of the country.    

Quote
1.    Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2.    Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3.   Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4.    Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5.    Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6.    Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7.    Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8.    Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9.    Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10.    Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11.    Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12.   Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13.   Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

1. GIGANTIC NEGATIVE. We now have a definitive answer on November 6, 2018. The GOP not only lost seats in the House of Representatives, but also its majority. This is usually a negative for practically any administration,
2. NOW NEGATIVE There could be, but that is yet well enough into the future that we can't say anything. This is not on the scale of the weird Lyn LaRouche running in a partisan or the presence of Harold Stassen on Republican primary ballots long after his political life was over. (For all I know, Stassen could still be on Republican primary ballots even if his literal life is over).  
 
I'm not saying that Bill Weld will succeed in knocking out Trump, but his campaign will weaken Trump. This has become an unambiguous negative, and it could get worse for the President. The last two incumbent Presidents who faced a serious primary challenge (Ford and Carter) lost their re-election bids. In view of his experience, Bill Weld is a serious candidate. Effective Presidents do not face primary challenges. To be sure, I cannot yet say that Weld is as effective as Reagan in 1976 or Ted Kennedy in 1980 -- but he demonstrates a weakness of this President. Some GOP constituencies dislike Trump. The primary challenges to LBJ in 1968 created chaos. He did get nearly 10% of the vote in the New Hampshire primary, which I see as a sign that much dissent exists within the GOP about Trump; some of this could end up going Third Party (Reform? Constitution? Libertarian?) or even to the Democrat. Sure, it is New Hampshire, where Bill Weld is remembered as the Governor of a neighboring state ("Taxachusetts"), so I don't expect to see anything like 9.1% of the caucus or primary vote in many states going to Weld.    

But note well: that a President who got elected with 45.92% of the popular vote (which is not much higher as a percentage than the 45.65% that Mike Dukakis got in 1988)... President Trump is going to need every possible R-leaning vote that he can get, especially when voters under 35 disapprove of him 68-28 in a recent poll.  
 
Rivals for the nomination  are rarely effective in bringing all their early breakaway supporters back to the fold.
  
3. A Republican will be President in 2020 and the incumbent will be running even if something happens to President Trump. Pence would run for re-election.

4. I think that there will be, but that is too far into the future for any discussion yet.

5. Way too early to tell, but on March 1, 2020 it is shaky due to a huge 'correction' in the stock market. Ask again in August or September 2020.

6. The Obama economy had a growth rate unusually high, as it was a recovery from a nasty recession. This will be impossible to meet.

7. NOW POSITIVE -- if for all the wrong reasons He hasn't yet. The tax bill is it. I expect more efforts at deregulation of industry, union-cracking, and privatization even if those prove unpopular. In view of the anti-immigrant policy that our President has, he now gets a positive. Lichtman does not judge whether the effects are good or bad, as in the past with a huge tariff bill. Consequences could lead to the strengthening of negatives, as in domestic unrest.

8. GIGANTIC NEGATIVE.  Sure, the President did not directly inspire one of his supporters to send bombs to Democratic politicians and celebrities, but he consider himself lucky that none of them blew up a target. Donald Trump may be no antisemite (Nazi-style antisemitism is racist), but the creep who mowed down eleven Jews in a Pittsburgh synagogue did so out of a concern that the  specific Jews had been  supporting immigration of non-white people. The frequent polite demonstrations from the Women's March on have not been unrest, but they can certainly call attention to his awfulness and aid in organizing an electoral opposition.
  
9. GIGANTIC NEGATIVE.  This is the most systematically and severely corrupt Administration in American history. The legal problems keep piling up. Americans have shown little tolerance for corruption among Governors, Senators, and Representatives, so why should they act any differently toward President Trump?

10. Likely but it has yet to happen. NOW NEGATIVE. I do not trust the deal with North Korea, and this President is insulting so many of America's traditional allies that something will go bad. The tariff is a disaster waiting to happen. I'm calling it now for reasons shown above on America's loss of credibility among its traditional allies. This is a matter of timing, and I could have done it earlier.  I do so now, not that anything has changed abruptly. Remember how badly he bungled the response to the deaths of four Special Forces soldiers in Niger? Maybe not, but I saw that as a portent of trouble.

11. The nuke deal with North Korea? There is no enforcement in place. The President would need China and ideally also Russia as an enforcer.

12. Trump already seems much less charismatic now than in 2016. He still has charisma with his cult. That will not be enough.

13. We have no idea who the Democratic nominee will be.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1232494118137294850

YOU'RE WELCOME!

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Feb. 23-25, 1500 adults including 1184 RV

Adults:

Approve 42 (+2)
Disapprove 50 (-2)

Strongly approve 25 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 41 (-1)


RV:

Approve 44 (+1)
Disapprove 53 (-1)

Strongly approve 29 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 46 (-1)

2020 (RV only): Generic D 47 (nc), Trump 40 (-1)

GCB (RV only): D 48 (nc), R 40 (-1)

[Arizona Iced Tea]

If you look at RCP Trump is slowly becoming more popular. He is now at 46% and it looks like it will slowly go up from there.

[soundchaser]

If you look at RCP Trump is slowly becoming more popular. He is now at 46% and it looks like it will slowly go up from there.

He could also go down from here! There are literally two possibilities -- naming one of them doesn't mean it will happen.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Feb. 19-25, 4439 adults including 3809 RV (this is a much larger sample than usual - no idea why)

Adults:

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 54 (-2)

Strongly approve 24 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 42 (nc)


RV:

Approve 43 (nc)
Disapprove 55 (nc)

Strongly approve 25 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (+1)

[wbrocks67]

If you look at RCP Trump is slowly becoming more popular. He is now at 46% and it looks like it will slowly go up from there.

If anything, there have been numerous bad poll results for Trump in the last week or so.

[pbrower2a]

It's back to where things were while the impeachment process was going on. Trump is not vindicated.

[Brittain33]

If you look at RCP Trump is slowly becoming more popular. He is now at 46% and it looks like it will slowly go up from there.

He could also go down from here! There are literally two possibilities -- naming one of them doesn't mean it will happen.

You aren't taking into account Newton's First Law of Motion. If Trump has risen to 46%, his momentum will carry him upward to 47%, 48%, and possibly to 49%.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As long as Pelosi remains in charge of Dems in the House, there wont be a Female Prez, Warren, Harris and Hilary, but Klobuchar should be Veep and sit side by side next to Pelosi at the 2021 SOTU address; consequently,  Trump only won in 2016, because Strickland,  McGinty,  and Evan Bayh had scandals, just like Hilary did. That's why Trump overachieved in 2016, not against a seasoned Vet like Bernie

[emailking]

If you look at RCP Trump is slowly becoming more popular. He is now at 46% and it looks like it will slowly go up from there.

He could also go down from here! There are literally two possibilities -- naming one of them doesn't mean it will happen.

You aren't taking into account Newton's First Law of Motion. If Trump has risen to 46%, his momentum will carry him upward to 47%, 48%, and possibly to 49%.

Uggh. I hate when people actually try to apply Newton's Laws outside of physics. Especially Newton's 3rd Law of Motion, which is often described as "For every action there's an equal and opposite reaction." A clever restatement that lends itself to forces and processes outside of physics. A better statement would be that for every force there is an equal and opposite force. And it's not even true! It only works for electrostatics, magnetostatics, and weak gravity.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If you look at RCP Trump is slowly becoming more popular. He is now at 46% and it looks like it will slowly go up from there.

He could also go down from here! There are literally two possibilities -- naming one of them doesn't mean it will happen.

You aren't taking into account Newton's First Law of Motion. If Trump has risen to 46%, his momentum will carry him upward to 47%, 48%, and possibly to 49%.

Uggh. I hate when people actually try to apply Newton's Laws outside of physics. Especially Newton's 3rd Law of Motion, which is often described as "For every action there's an equal and opposite reaction." A clever restatement that lends itself to forces and processes outside of physics. A better statement would be that for every force there is an equal and opposite force. And it's not even true! It only works for electrostatics, magnetostatics, and weak gravity.

His comment was undoubtedly satirical.

[emailking]

Yeah I recommended his post.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Global Strategy Group, Feb. 14-17, 1299 RV (1-month change)

Approve 45 (+2)
Disapprove 53 (-2)

Strongly approve 26 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-3)

R: 88/11 (strongly 57/5)
D: 10/88 (4/77)
I: 36/58 (11/40)

[Inmate Trump]

I’m betting his approval will go right back down again after this horrible week for the markets, and his lackluster response to coronavirus.

[GP270watch]

Global Strategy Group, Feb. 14-17, 1299 RV (1-month change)

Approve 45 (+2)
Disapprove 53 (-2)

Strongly approve 26 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-3)

R: 88/11 (strongly 57/5)
D: 10/88 (4/77)
I: 36/58 (11/40)

 Looks like it's going to be a base turnout election that determines the winner.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I’m betting his approval will go right back down again after this horrible week for the markets, and his lackluster response to coronavirus.

Let's hope so. You would think that a notorious germaphobe would care more.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Fox has him at 44/55 which is unchanged from last time

[Hindsight was 2020]

I’m betting his approval will go right back down again after this horrible week for the markets, and his lackluster response to coronavirus.

Let's hope so. You would think that a notorious germaphobe would care more.

Disgusting that you're wishing people would die to make "approval ratings" go down. Remember too, he was elected (remember the gay people and women and people with hijabs crying at Javits?) with a 38% approval.

Don't act like a moron. Approval doesn't mean as much as you think.

He didn’t say he wishes people would die to make Trump’s approval go down also (the bolded part) good job showing off that bigoted side again as you like to do

[Progressive Pessimist]

I’m betting his approval will go right back down again after this horrible week for the markets, and his lackluster response to coronavirus.

Let's hope so. You would think that a notorious germaphobe would care more.

Disgusting that you're wishing people would die to make "approval ratings" go down. Remember too, he was elected (remember the gay people and women and people with hijabs crying at Javits?) with a 38% approval.

Don't act like a moron. Approval doesn't mean as much as you think.

When did I say that? I said that I wish he would take the virus more seriously. If he doesn't he deserves to be looked at more negatively. I want his administration to address the contagion properly, but as usual, they just seem incapable of doing so.

[Reaganfan]

I’m betting his approval will go right back down again after this horrible week for the markets, and his lackluster response to coronavirus.

Let's hope so. You would think that a notorious germaphobe would care more.

Disgusting that you're wishing people would die to make "approval ratings" go down. Remember too, he was elected (remember the gay people and women and people with hijabs crying at Javits?) with a 38% approval.

Don't act like a moron. Approval doesn't mean as much as you think.

He didn’t say he wishes people would die to make Trump’s approval go down also (the bolded part) good job showing off that bigoted side again as you like to do

Am I lying?



Am I lying?



Was it all a dream?



You guys waste all your votes in expensive, homeless-ridden large cities and lose the electoral college to a sea of red. Not my fault. Then you become gleeful that people should get sick?

[Progressive Pessimist]

I’m betting his approval will go right back down again after this horrible week for the markets, and his lackluster response to coronavirus.

Let's hope so. You would think that a notorious germaphobe would care more.

Disgusting that you're wishing people would die to make "approval ratings" go down. Remember too, he was elected (remember the gay people and women and people with hijabs crying at Javits?) with a 38% approval.

Don't act like a moron. Approval doesn't mean as much as you think.

He didn’t say he wishes people would die to make Trump’s approval go down also (the bolded part) good job showing off that bigoted side again as you like to do

-SNIP-

What does any of this have to do with anything else? We know Trump won. For all the talk of us condescending to the "real" America in rural areas, it sure seems hypocritical for you to do the same to Americans in cities.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I’m betting his approval will go right back down again after this horrible week for the markets, and his lackluster response to coronavirus.

Let's hope so. You would think that a notorious germaphobe would care more.

Disgusting that you're wishing people would die to make "approval ratings" go down. Remember too, he was elected (remember the gay people and women and people with hijabs crying at Javits?) with a 38% approval.

Don't act like a moron. Approval doesn't mean as much as you think.

He didn’t say he wishes people would die to make Trump’s approval go down also (the bolded part) good job showing off that bigoted side again as you like to do

Am I lying?



Am I lying?



Was it all a dream?



You guys waste all your votes in expensive, homeless-ridden large cities and lose the electoral college to a sea of red. Not my fault. Then you become gleeful that people should get sick?

No one is happy about the virus you bad faith troll and also for someone who used to use the phrase “identity politics” you certainly love labeling people by their identity

[Reaganfan]

I think you guys should be a little bit ashamed.

Besides, if these polls are as crappy as they've been the last few years and they still show Trump improving, I'd be crapping razor blades on election night if I were you.